0x619d…b31c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x619dc40631c5f78606d17ed1528d62898096b31c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

31% @ 27.1¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

689

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	34% (76/222)	+34%	222
Politics	20% (15/74)	-42%	74
Geopolitics	8% (1/12)	-79%	12
Sports	33% (2/6)	+52%	6
Culture	33% (1/3)	-48%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	-28%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other222 bets
Hit rate
34% (76/222)
ROI
+34%
Politics74 bets
Hit rate
20% (15/74)
ROI
-42%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/12)
ROI
-79%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+52%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-48%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-28%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

30% hit · 96/320

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Crazy" during his remarks in North Carolina?	No	$3	29.6¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$5	21.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$1	37.0¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	13.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$1	8.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$8	0.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$4	34.0¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$15	44.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$4	22.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$1	62.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	4.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1	4.1¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "Consensus" in Des Moines?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	Yes	$1	47.0¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	19.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	19.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$72	78.1¢	Won
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?	No	$0	8.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?	Yes	$43	27.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	25.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$4	1.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" in April?	No	$0	4.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" in April?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$56	36.2¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$253	56.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$1	67.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$12	21.3¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$1	10.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	$4	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social?	Yes	$2	44.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$1	17.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.5¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	38.8¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	$4	37.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	$1	32.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Underwater" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$1	38.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$12	38.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$68	5.3¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$6	55.8¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$13	11.3¢	Lost
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost

Will Trump say "Crazy" during his remarks in North Carolina?Lost
No$3 @ 29.6¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$1 @ 37.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 0.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 34.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$15 @ 44.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 22.2¢
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.1¢
Will JD Vance say "Consensus" in Des Moines?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?Lost
Yes$1 @ 47.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 19.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 19.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$72 @ 78.1¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?Lost
No$0 @ 8.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?Won
Yes$43 @ 27.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 25.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.5¢
Will Trump say "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" in April?Lost
No$0 @ 4.1¢
Will Trump say "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" in April?Won
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$56 @ 36.2¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$253 @ 56.0¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Won
Yes$1 @ 67.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$12 @ 21.3¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social?Won
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 15.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$1 @ 17.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.5¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 38.8¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Lost
Yes$4 @ 37.0¢
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump say "Underwater" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 5.3¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$6 @ 55.8¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 11.3¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	No	$5	41.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?	—	Yes	$1	1.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?	—	Yes	$0	0.7¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
No$5 @ 41.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?—
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?—
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢