← Smart money
0x6136…64f8
ProfitableROI
+3%
Win rate
47%
Brier
0.227
Resolved
1874
Avg size
$1
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 50% (1/2) | -48% | 2 |
| Politics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +56% | 1 |
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -48%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +56%
Track record
50% hit · 2/4| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? | No | $1 | 53.0¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $3 | 64.3¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $8 | 76.9¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | $12 | 25.9¢ | Lost |
- No$1 @ 53.0¢
- No$3 @ 64.3¢
- No$8 @ 76.9¢
- Yes$12 @ 25.9¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$10 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 14.2¢
- No$8 @ 84.9¢
- Boston Red Sox$8 @ 58.1¢
- No$7 @ 92.4¢
- Yes$7 @ 38.3¢
- Yes$7 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 34.1¢
- No$6 @ 87.6¢
- Kash Patel out by June 30?PoliticsNo$5 @ 65.0¢
- No$5 @ 84.0¢
- No$5 @ 83.8¢
- Yes$5 @ 26.7¢
- No$5 @ 91.6¢
- Yes$5 @ 47.8¢
- No$5 @ 83.2¢
- Yes$5 @ 46.4¢
- Milwaukee Brewers$5 @ 50.4¢
- No$5 @ 93.0¢
- No$5 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 29.2¢
- Tampa Bay Rays$5 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 9.8¢
- Yes$5 @ 38.0¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$5 @ 30.1¢
- No$5 @ 19.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 19.8¢
- No$4 @ 54.2¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$4 @ 14.5¢
- No$4 @ 6.1¢