0x5874…421d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5874b7978187a776e3977b1541a0db4c28d1421d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.1pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

34% @ 29.2¢

Brier

0.129

Resolved

564

Avg size

$77

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	34% (64/189)	+18%	189
Politics	38% (5/13)	-4%	13
Sports	0% (0/5)	-100%	5

Other189 bets
Hit rate
34% (64/189)
ROI
+18%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
-4%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%

Track record

33% hit · 69/207

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$2	10.9¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition	No	$26	6.7¢	Lost
Will Everton win on 2025-02-15?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Won
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$30	8.1¢	Lost
US bank failure by March 31?	Yes	$15	31.0¢	Won
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$57	57.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$44	11.0¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$8	3.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	29.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 14-21?	Yes	$2	3.6¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$28	28.0¢	Won
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$36	30.0¢	Won
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?	Yes	$7	24.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	$7	24.0¢	Won
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	ETH	$76	38.0¢	Lost
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	Gold	$120	60.0¢	Won
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Seahawks	$41	68.0¢	Won
Warriors vs. Rockets	Warriors	$17	34.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?	Yes	$4	14.0¢	Lost
Weber State Wildcats vs. Montana State Bobcats: O/U 145.5	Under	$5	49.0¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	$3	7.9¢	Lost
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 4, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$5	4.7¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$10	9.8¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	50.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$19	5.0¢	Lost
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$104	80.3¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$266	12.3¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?	No	$10	20.7¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	1.7¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Broncos	Patriots	$7	67.0¢	Won
Canadiens vs. Rangers	Canadiens	$22	43.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Won
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	$9	17.0¢	Lost
AWS service disrupted by January 31?	No	$301	86.0¢	Won
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?	No	$58	58.0¢	Won
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 15?	Yes	$9	3.1¢	Lost
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	No	$27	27.0¢	Lost
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during January press conference?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	$75	15.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$84	49.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$75	25.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$9	3.3¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	No	$59	54.4¢	Won

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$2 @ 10.9¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AI EditionLost
No$26 @ 6.7¢
Will Everton win on 2025-02-15?Won
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 8.1¢
US bank failure by March 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 31.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$57 @ 57.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$44 @ 11.0¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 29.0¢
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 14-21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$28 @ 28.0¢
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Won
Yes$36 @ 30.0¢
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?Lost
Yes$7 @ 24.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Thunder vs. TimberwolvesWon
Timberwolves$7 @ 24.0¢
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?Lost
ETH$76 @ 38.0¢
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?Won
Gold$120 @ 60.0¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsWon
Seahawks$41 @ 68.0¢
Warriors vs. RocketsWon
Warriors$17 @ 34.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$77 @ 77.0¢
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?Lost
Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
Weber State Wildcats vs. Montana State Bobcats: O/U 145.5Lost
Under$5 @ 49.0¢
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.9¢
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.8¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 50.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 5.0¢
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$104 @ 80.3¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$266 @ 12.3¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?Won
No$10 @ 20.7¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.7¢
Patriots vs. BroncosWon
Patriots$7 @ 67.0¢
Canadiens vs. RangersLost
Canadiens$22 @ 43.0¢
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Won
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Lost
Yes$9 @ 17.0¢
AWS service disrupted by January 31?Won
No$301 @ 86.0¢
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 15?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.1¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Lost
No$27 @ 27.0¢
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during January press conference?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 15.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$84 @ 49.3¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$75 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Won
No$59 @ 54.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$578	28.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$532	17.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$312	78.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$312	78.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$137	9.5¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$85	21.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$67	33.6¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$49	9.8¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$48	4.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$42	14.0¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$30	3.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$4	12.0¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$578 @ 28.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$532 @ 17.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$312 @ 78.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$312 @ 78.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$137 @ 9.5¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$85 @ 21.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$67 @ 33.6¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$49 @ 9.8¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$48 @ 4.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$42 @ 14.0¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$30 @ 3.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$4 @ 12.0¢