0x57cd…82ac

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x57cd8cad26e2d72dbfb25f2642a486cc374282ac
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.6pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

39% @ 36.5¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

3961

Avg size

$99

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (189/475)	+16%	475
Sports	34% (29/86)	-27%	86
Politics	42% (8/19)	-84%	19
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	+31%	5

Other475 bets
Hit rate
40% (189/475)
ROI
+16%
Sports86 bets
Hit rate
34% (29/86)
ROI
-27%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
42% (8/19)
ROI
-84%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+31%

Track record

39% hit · 229/585

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$2.9k	81.9¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$612	87.4¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$99	52.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$128	2.2¢	Lost
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees	Texas Rangers	$204	47.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$2.0k	46.1¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$17	0.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	No	$4.8k	82.0¢	Won
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 20 or more straight weeks?	Yes	$1	4.3¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$52	26.0¢	Lost
Will Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?	Yes	$153	22.0¢	Lost
Will Diddy be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison?	Yes	$3	6.3¢	Lost
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$38	3.2¢	Lost
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	$21	36.0¢	Lost
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants	$39	38.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Germany" 7+ times during Merz events on June 5?	Yes	$25	62.0¢	Won
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	Yes	$3.5k	29.2¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$8	7.9¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$941	0.8¢	Lost
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?	Yes	$70	18.1¢	Lost
US x Russia military clash by December 31?	Yes	$185	4.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Bukele visit on April 14?	Yes	$405	32.8¢	Lost
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?	Yes	$124	48.0¢	Won
Will Harry Sisson get White House press credentials?	Yes	$123	12.1¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?	No	$50	39.0¢	Won
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Over	$204	52.0¢	Lost
Royals vs. Angels	Angels	$31	28.0¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$134	74.3¢	Won
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Cavaliers	$51	50.0¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$82	86.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$12.9k	31.8¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?	Yes	$23	41.0¢	Lost
Will Auston Matthews score 1+ goals against the Panthers?	Yes	$17	25.0¢	Won
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?	Yes	$21	3.0¢	Lost
Matt Gaetz out as Congressman in 2024?	Yes	$19	14.7¢	Won
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$68	55.2¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	No	$4.2k	43.4¢	Lost
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$16	27.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$69	72.0¢	Won
Will Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?	Yes	$204	30.0¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	$627	24.2¢	Lost
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5	Under	$91	40.0¢	Won
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$37	29.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$25	71.8¢	Won
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?	No	$2.5k	57.7¢	Lost
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?	Yes	$315	45.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$226	64.4¢	Won
Will FC Metz vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?	Yes	$52	27.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?	Yes	$3.6k	61.9¢	Lost

Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$2.9k @ 81.9¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$612 @ 87.4¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$99 @ 52.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$128 @ 2.2¢
Texas Rangers vs. New York YankeesLost
Texas Rangers$204 @ 47.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$2.0k @ 46.1¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$17 @ 0.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
No$4.8k @ 82.0¢
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 20 or more straight weeks?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.3¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
Will Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?Lost
Yes$153 @ 22.0¢
Will Diddy be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.3¢
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$38 @ 3.2¢
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-09?Lost
Yes$21 @ 36.0¢
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersWon
San Francisco Giants$39 @ 38.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Germany" 7+ times during Merz events on June 5?Won
Yes$25 @ 62.0¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 29.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.9¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$941 @ 0.8¢
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?Lost
Yes$70 @ 18.1¢
US x Russia military clash by December 31?Lost
Yes$185 @ 4.4¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Bukele visit on April 14?Lost
Yes$405 @ 32.8¢
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Won
Yes$124 @ 48.0¢
Will Harry Sisson get White House press credentials?Lost
Yes$123 @ 12.1¢
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Won
No$50 @ 39.0¢
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$204 @ 52.0¢
Royals vs. AngelsLost
Angels$31 @ 28.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$134 @ 74.3¢
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Won
Cavaliers$51 @ 50.0¢
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$82 @ 86.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$12.9k @ 31.8¢
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?Lost
Yes$23 @ 41.0¢
Will Auston Matthews score 1+ goals against the Panthers?Won
Yes$17 @ 25.0¢
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.0¢
Matt Gaetz out as Congressman in 2024?Won
Yes$19 @ 14.7¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$68 @ 55.2¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
No$4.2k @ 43.4¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$16 @ 27.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$69 @ 72.0¢
Will Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$204 @ 30.0¢
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?Lost
Yes$627 @ 24.2¢
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Won
Under$91 @ 40.0¢
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$37 @ 29.0¢
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$25 @ 71.8¢
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Lost
No$2.5k @ 57.7¢
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Won
Yes$315 @ 45.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$226 @ 64.4¢
Will FC Metz vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?Lost
Yes$52 @ 27.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Lost
Yes$3.6k @ 61.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	48.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$925	39.5¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$620	34.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$390	65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$358	46.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$238	97.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$174	96.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$170	26.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$156	78.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$129	92.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Politics	Yes	$122	0.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$101	2.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$98	39.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 6%-9%?	Politics	No	$94	94.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$92	91.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$88	94.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$83	82.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$79	93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the IL-09 House seat?	Politics	No	$78	96.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?	Politics	Yes	$71	23.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$64	96.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$60	24.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$52	95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$48	96.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$48	87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$48	95.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 9%-12%?	Politics	No	$47	94.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?	Politics	No	$47	94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$46	92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$45	90.0¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$2.4k @ 48.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$925 @ 39.5¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$620 @ 34.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$390 @ 65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$358 @ 46.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$238 @ 97.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$174 @ 96.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$170 @ 26.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$129 @ 92.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: OtherPolitics
Yes$122 @ 0.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$101 @ 2.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$98 @ 39.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 6%-9%?Politics
No$94 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$92 @ 91.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$88 @ 94.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$83 @ 82.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?Politics
Yes$79 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the IL-09 House seat?Politics
No$78 @ 96.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?Politics
Yes$71 @ 23.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?Politics
Yes$64 @ 96.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$60 @ 24.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?Politics
Yes$52 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?Politics
Yes$48 @ 96.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?Politics
Yes$48 @ 87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?Politics
Yes$48 @ 95.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 9%-12%?Politics
No$47 @ 94.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?Politics
No$47 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$46 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$45 @ 90.0¢