0x54db…0174

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x54dbe14d342f129be293df83a12515065b6c0174
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.9pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

28% @ 25.6¢

Brier

0.108

Resolved

4264

Avg size

$80

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (201/642)	+7%	642
Economy	39% (13/33)	+55%	33
Politics	13% (4/31)	-17%	31
Tech	30% (6/20)	-7%	20
Sports	11% (1/9)	+540%	9
Science	100% (1/1)	+85%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other642 bets
Hit rate
31% (201/642)
ROI
+7%
Economy33 bets
Hit rate
39% (13/33)
ROI
+55%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
13% (4/31)
ROI
-17%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
30% (6/20)
ROI
-7%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
11% (1/9)
ROI
+540%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+85%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 226/737

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	No	$52	33.3¢	Lost
Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election?	Yes	$3	3.2¢	Lost
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?	Yes	$3	2.5¢	Lost
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	$77	76.8¢	Won
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	Yes	$20	15.0¢	Lost
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?	No	$173	13.1¢	Lost
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?	Yes	$151	89.3¢	Won
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30?	Yes	$4	6.2¢	Lost
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?	Yes	$415	33.0¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will Orbán flip Magyar for Next Hungary PM by Jan 31?	Yes	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	$47	7.8¢	Lost
Will the Labor Party win by 40 or more seats?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Labor Party win by 40 or more seats?	Yes	$35	3.0¢	Won
Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will egg prices be between $4.50-4.75 for January?	No	$61	83.2¢	Won
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?	No	$23	46.0¢	Lost
Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?	Yes	$8	2.7¢	Lost
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?	No	$134	35.1¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	Yes	$93	0.2¢	Lost
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	No	$315	89.8¢	Won
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$10	3.6¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?	No	$21	69.3¢	Won
Will Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?	Yes	$172	4.1¢	Lost
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?	No	$564	6.9¢	Lost
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	No	$280	70.0¢	Won
Will Hungary win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	$4	0.6¢	Lost
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 90m and 100m views in first 24 hours?	Yes	$32	11.1¢	Lost
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,185,000 and $1,201,000 on September 30?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Lost
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?	Yes	$31	41.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?	Yes	$2.7k	67.3¢	Won
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?	Yes	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the first round?	No	$32	3.0¢	Lost
Will $Trump FDV be $15b or more on inauguration day?	No	$31	16.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?	No	$143	36.4¢	Lost
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?	No	$1.2k	51.9¢	Lost
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?	Yes	$3.3k	59.4¢	Won
Will $MELANIA FDV be $13-15b on Friday?	Yes	$9	3.3¢	Lost
Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?	Yes	$7	4.9¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$267	9.9¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	No	$695	77.1¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	Yes	$213	19.2¢	Won
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Will the next Pope be trans?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?	Yes	$42	2.0¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$413	53.1¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $30 in February?	Yes	$31	1.9¢	Lost
Will the Liberal party lead by 7-8% on April 18?	Yes	$3	17.0¢	Lost

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Lost
No$52 @ 33.3¢
Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.5¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Won
No$77 @ 76.8¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Lost
Yes$20 @ 15.0¢
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?Lost
No$173 @ 13.1¢
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?Won
Yes$151 @ 89.3¢
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.2¢
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?Lost
Yes$415 @ 33.0¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will Orbán flip Magyar for Next Hungary PM by Jan 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?Lost
Yes$47 @ 7.8¢
Will the Labor Party win by 40 or more seats?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will the Labor Party win by 40 or more seats?Won
Yes$35 @ 3.0¢
Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will egg prices be between $4.50-4.75 for January?Won
No$61 @ 83.2¢
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Lost
No$23 @ 46.0¢
Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.7¢
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?Won
No$134 @ 35.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?Lost
Yes$93 @ 0.2¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Won
No$315 @ 89.8¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.6¢
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?Won
No$21 @ 69.3¢
Will Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$172 @ 4.1¢
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?Lost
No$564 @ 6.9¢
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?Won
No$280 @ 70.0¢
Will Hungary win the UEFA EURO 2028?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 90m and 100m views in first 24 hours?Lost
Yes$32 @ 11.1¢
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,185,000 and $1,201,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Won
Yes$31 @ 41.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 67.3¢
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.3¢
Will António José Seguro win the first round?Lost
No$32 @ 3.0¢
Will $Trump FDV be $15b or more on inauguration day?Lost
No$31 @ 16.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?Lost
No$143 @ 36.4¢
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Lost
No$1.2k @ 51.9¢
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 59.4¢
Will $MELANIA FDV be $13-15b on Friday?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.3¢
Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.9¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$267 @ 9.9¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Lost
No$695 @ 77.1¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Won
Yes$213 @ 19.2¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.0¢
Will the next Pope be trans?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?Lost
Yes$42 @ 2.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$413 @ 53.1¢
Will Solana dip to $30 in February?Lost
Yes$31 @ 1.9¢
Will the Liberal party lead by 7-8% on April 18?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Science	Yes	$387	40.9¢
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Science	Yes	$279	51.6¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Other	No	$230	92.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	Other	No	$189	91.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?	Politics	No	$133	66.3¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?	Other	No	$120	62.7¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$79	13.5¢
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?	Politics	Yes	$76	41.4¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$72	30.6¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$62	6.2¢
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?	Economy	No	$47	68.4¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?	Politics	Yes	$36	19.4¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$34	17.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?	Other	No	$34	76.1¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$32	15.6¢
Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	Sports	No	$30	76.0¢
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	Politics	Yes	$29	16.8¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	Crypto	No	$28	26.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,400,000 and 4,600,000?	Politics	No	$26	80.6¢
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?	Politics	Yes	$25	16.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$16	27.5¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?	Other	No	$14	90.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$11	16.8¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$8	24.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?	Politics	No	$6	64.0¢
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$5	99.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5	97.1¢
Will Hungary win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Sports	Yes	$4	0.6¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 400,000 and 430,000?	Politics	Yes	$3	12.4¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$3	17.0¢

Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Science
Yes$387 @ 40.9¢
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?Science
Yes$279 @ 51.6¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?Other
No$230 @ 92.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Other
No$189 @ 91.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?Politics
No$133 @ 66.3¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Other
No$120 @ 62.7¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?Other
Yes$79 @ 13.5¢
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?Politics
Yes$76 @ 41.4¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?Other
Yes$72 @ 30.6¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?Other
Yes$62 @ 6.2¢
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?Economy
No$47 @ 68.4¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?Politics
Yes$36 @ 19.4¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?Other
No$34 @ 76.1¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy
Yes$32 @ 15.6¢
Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?Sports
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?Politics
Yes$29 @ 16.8¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Crypto
No$28 @ 26.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,400,000 and 4,600,000?Politics
No$26 @ 80.6¢
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?Politics
Yes$25 @ 16.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by December 31?Other
Yes$16 @ 27.5¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?Other
No$14 @ 90.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?Other
Yes$11 @ 16.8¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31?Other
Yes$8 @ 24.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?Politics
No$6 @ 64.0¢
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?Politics
No$5 @ 99.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5 @ 97.1¢
Will Hungary win the UEFA EURO 2028?Sports
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 400,000 and 430,000?Politics
Yes$3 @ 12.4¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?Economy
Yes$3 @ 17.0¢