0x5217…8201

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x52177c82768be0178896fde8544e81d2ed0e8201
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

46% @ 37.2¢

Brier

0.198

Resolved

766

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	31% (30/96)	+38%	96
Other	52% (34/66)	+45%	66
Geopolitics	29% (4/14)	-46%	14
Sports	14% (1/7)	-96%	7
Crypto	60% (3/5)	+114%	5
Tech	100% (2/2)	+109%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Politics96 bets
Hit rate
31% (30/96)
ROI
+38%
Other66 bets
Hit rate
52% (34/66)
ROI
+45%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
29% (4/14)
ROI
-46%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-96%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+114%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+109%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

39% hit · 75/191

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$36	20.6¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$1	70.6¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$1	82.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$17	13.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	$2	18.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	58.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$3	82.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	Yes	$1	46.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$1	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$8	9.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	38.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$24	72.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.9¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	$1	19.3¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$3	52.2¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$3	48.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	No	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	$1	36.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$1	30.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$8	78.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$3	14.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$1	45.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$22	79.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$45	10.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$37	37.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	2.1¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	$2	73.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$2	3.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$1	6.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$3	9.9¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	No	$1	83.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$8	17.4¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$6	65.2¢	Won
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1	83.0¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$36 @ 20.6¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 70.6¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 13.6¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 58.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$3 @ 82.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 9.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 38.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$24 @ 72.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.3¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 52.2¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 48.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Lost
No$1 @ 45.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$8 @ 78.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 45.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$22 @ 79.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$45 @ 10.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$37 @ 37.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
Yes$2 @ 73.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Trump out as President by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$2 @ 3.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.9¢
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$1 @ 83.7¢
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?Lost
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$8 @ 17.4¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$6 @ 65.2¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Won
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$1 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	25.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	72.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$7	19.1¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$6	39.1¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	61.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$5	16.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	74.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$4	61.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$4	54.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	18.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	Yes	$3	7.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$3	91.5¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$3	96.6¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	61.9¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$3	13.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	—	No	$3	71.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	25.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	62.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2	53.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	—	Yes	$2	27.0¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$2	38.9¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	54.9¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	38.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	45.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	28.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	14.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2	80.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	97.0¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$1	83.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	20.0¢

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 25.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 72.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$7 @ 19.1¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$6 @ 39.1¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 61.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$5 @ 16.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 74.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 61.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 54.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 18.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$3 @ 91.5¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$3 @ 96.6¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 61.9¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$3 @ 13.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?—
No$3 @ 71.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 62.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$2 @ 53.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?—
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$2 @ 38.9¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 54.9¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 38.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 45.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 28.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 14.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 80.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 97.0¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢