0x5041…619a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x504130bf245a7d4ff2decf7f8997563f8a60619a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+9.0pp

ROI

+51%

Win rate

51% @ 42.4¢

Brier

0.236

Resolved

298

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (39/86)	+54%	86
Politics	70% (23/33)	+63%	33
Geopolitics	43% (3/7)	-14%	7
Sports	20% (1/5)	+148%	5
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-2%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+34%	1

Other86 bets
Hit rate
45% (39/86)
ROI
+54%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
70% (23/33)
ROI
+63%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-14%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+148%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-2%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+34%

Track record

50% hit · 68/137

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$4	32.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$21	41.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$9	24.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	No	$1	39.9¢	Lost
Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$1	77.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	No	$10	23.0¢	Lost
Will there be no coalition by October 31?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$29	39.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$15	3.9¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$24	42.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$17	70.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$10	86.4¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$28	27.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$77	50.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12	2.5¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	$10	41.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?	No	$5	83.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$1	63.0¢	Lost
Government shutdown on Saturday?	No	$19	19.5¢	Won
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$9	70.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$1	14.9¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$5	64.0¢	Won
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$21	58.0¢	Won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	No	$9	7.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	10.0¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled in 2025?	Yes	$5	5.9¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$15	76.2¢	Won
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	$2	81.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$24	54.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$20	50.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?	Yes	$2	7.6¢	Lost
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State	Kennesaw State	$1	59.0¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$5	36.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$27	53.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	53.4¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$26	41.4¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$11	26.8¢	Lost
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$8	1.4¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	No	$21	33.8¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	Yes	$2	2.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$3	53.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$18	39.0¢	Lost
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1	22.0¢	Lost
Will Super Bowl LX have between 124M and 128M viewers?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Won

Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$4 @ 32.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$21 @ 41.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$9 @ 24.9¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Lost
No$1 @ 39.9¢
Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$1 @ 77.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Lost
No$10 @ 23.0¢
Will there be no coalition by October 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 39.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$15 @ 3.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 42.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$17 @ 70.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$10 @ 86.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 27.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 50.0¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.5¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 41.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 83.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 63.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Won
No$19 @ 19.5¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$9 @ 70.6¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$1 @ 14.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$5 @ 64.0¢
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$21 @ 58.0¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Lost
No$9 @ 7.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 10.0¢
Weed rescheduled in 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.9¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$15 @ 76.2¢
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
No$2 @ 81.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$24 @ 54.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 50.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.6¢
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville StateWon
Kennesaw State$1 @ 59.0¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$5 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$27 @ 53.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 53.4¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
Yes$26 @ 41.4¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$11 @ 26.8¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 1.4¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?Won
No$21 @ 33.8¢
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$3 @ 53.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$18 @ 39.0¢
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$1 @ 22.0¢
Will Super Bowl LX have between 124M and 128M viewers?Won
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$122	98.4¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$41	67.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$37	44.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$24	96.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$23	69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$19	22.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$12	87.3¢
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$11	87.0¢
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?	Politics	Yes	$10	88.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$10	54.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$5	10.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	Politics	No	$5	94.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5	92.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	93.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$4	17.8¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$4	81.0¢
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	93.0¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	No	$4	89.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3	15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	37.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	2.9¢
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$3	72.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	88.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	90.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2	93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	93.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	78.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	92.0¢

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Geopolitics
No$122 @ 98.4¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$41 @ 67.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$37 @ 44.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$24 @ 96.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$23 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$19 @ 22.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$12 @ 87.3¢
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?Business
No$11 @ 87.0¢
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?Politics
Yes$10 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 10.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?Politics
No$5 @ 94.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 93.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 17.8¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Politics
Yes$4 @ 81.0¢
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 93.0¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
No$4 @ 89.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 37.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 72.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 88.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 90.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 93.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 92.0¢