0x4afb…ed2b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4afbb6588c79f2c5e9019908fd7440224dd1ed2b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

39% @ 35.1¢

Brier

0.215

Resolved

4864

Avg size

$105

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (151/409)	+2%	409
Sports	42% (40/95)	+4%	95
Culture	57% (4/7)	+111%	7
Politics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other409 bets
Hit rate
37% (151/409)
ROI
+2%
Sports95 bets
Hit rate
42% (40/95)
ROI
+4%
Culture7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+111%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 195/513

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	Cloud9	$3.0k	32.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Kinetix vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner	Team Kinetix	$4	80.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Kinetix vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner	Team Nemesis	$4	83.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	MOUZ	$978	34.0¢	Lost
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien	Cristian Garin	$1.0k	34.0¢	Lost
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11?	No	$620	31.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A	NRG	$581	45.0¢	Lost
Team World vs. Team USA Stars	Team USA Stars	$499	37.0¢	Won
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Over	$2.0k	28.0¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Karmine Corp	$480	40.0¢	Won
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Group Stage	FlyQuest	$1.1k	37.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Kaleido Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Asian Qualifier Playoffs	Kaleido Gaming	$13	71.0¢	Won
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?	No	$110	5.5¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$2.4k	33.6¢	Lost
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff	Coco Gauff	$2.3k	48.3¢	Won
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?	No	$133	48.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	No	$1.6k	33.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	No	$1.7k	39.0¢	Won
Jets vs. Blue Jackets	Jets	$820	41.0¢	Won
BMW Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Marc-Andrea Huesler	Marc-Andrea Huesler	$845	23.7¢	Lost
Split: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nerman Fatic	Dimitar Kuzmanov	$55	43.0¢	Won
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)	LYON	$2.0k	22.0¢	Lost
Liberty Flames vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens	Delaware Fightin Blue Hens	$10	7.8¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	$1.3k	30.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	No	$2.7k	30.4¢	Lost
Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5	Over	$750	50.0¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B	LYON	$51	0.9¢	Lost
Colts vs. Chiefs	Colts	$2.4k	30.0¢	Lost
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner	Natus Vincere	$335	11.0¢	Lost
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?	No	$951	36.6¢	Won
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-22?	No	$154	11.0¢	Lost
Pakistan Tri-Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 3)	Sri Lanka	$119	33.0¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	No	$1.8k	36.0¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$11	17.0¢	Won
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner	Carlos Alcaraz	$1.2k	47.0¢	Lost
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Burruchaga (+1.5)	Paul	$45	40.0¢	Lost
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Miomir Kecmanovic	Miomir Kecmanovic	$800	40.0¢	Lost
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09?	No	$980	49.0¢	Lost
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Under	$2.1k	42.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	No	$5.4k	49.2¢	Won
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11?	No	$600	30.0¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	No	$1.5k	40.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$186	19.2¢	Lost
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner	Top Esports	$50	23.0¢	Won
Miami Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino	Zhizhen Zhang	$89	49.0¢	Lost
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	LYON	$3.5k	44.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	No	$996	34.0¢	Won
1H Spread: 76ers (-0.5)	76ers	$40	60.5¢	Lost
Valorant: Barça eSports vs DNSTY (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 1 Playoffs	DNSTY	$1.4k	33.0¢	Won
Miami Open: Marcos Giron vs Martin Landaluce	Martin Landaluce	$239	35.0¢	Won

LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-InLost
Cloud9$3.0k @ 32.0¢
Dota 2: Team Kinetix vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerLost
Team Kinetix$4 @ 80.0¢
Dota 2: Team Kinetix vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Nemesis$4 @ 83.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 WinnerLost
MOUZ$978 @ 34.0¢
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner TienLost
Cristian Garin$1.0k @ 34.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11?Won
No$620 @ 31.0¢
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group ALost
NRG$581 @ 45.0¢
Team World vs. Team USA StarsWon
Team USA Stars$499 @ 37.0¢
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Lost
Over$2.0k @ 28.0¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 WinnerWon
Karmine Corp$480 @ 40.0¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Group StageLost
FlyQuest$1.1k @ 37.7¢
Counter-Strike: Kaleido Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Asian Qualifier PlayoffsWon
Kaleido Gaming$13 @ 71.0¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?Lost
No$110 @ 5.5¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$2.4k @ 33.6¢
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco GauffWon
Coco Gauff$2.3k @ 48.3¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Lost
No$133 @ 48.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$1.6k @ 33.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?Won
No$1.7k @ 39.0¢
Jets vs. Blue JacketsWon
Jets$820 @ 41.0¢
BMW Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Marc-Andrea HueslerLost
Marc-Andrea Huesler$845 @ 23.7¢
Split: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nerman FaticWon
Dimitar Kuzmanov$55 @ 43.0¢
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)Lost
LYON$2.0k @ 22.0¢
Liberty Flames vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue HensLost
Delaware Fightin Blue Hens$10 @ 7.8¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Won
No$1.3k @ 30.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Lost
No$2.7k @ 30.4¢
Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$750 @ 50.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group BLost
LYON$51 @ 0.9¢
Colts vs. ChiefsLost
Colts$2.4k @ 30.0¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$335 @ 11.0¢
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?Won
No$951 @ 36.6¢
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-22?Lost
No$154 @ 11.0¢
Pakistan Tri-Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 3)Lost
Sri Lanka$119 @ 33.0¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Lost
No$1.8k @ 36.0¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$11 @ 17.0¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerLost
Carlos Alcaraz$1.2k @ 47.0¢
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Burruchaga (+1.5)Lost
Paul$45 @ 40.0¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Miomir KecmanovicLost
Miomir Kecmanovic$800 @ 40.0¢
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09?Lost
No$980 @ 49.0¢
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$2.1k @ 42.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Won
No$5.4k @ 49.2¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11?Lost
No$600 @ 30.0¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?Lost
No$1.5k @ 40.0¢
Will Rodri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$186 @ 19.2¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 WinnerWon
Top Esports$50 @ 23.0¢
Miami Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian MannarinoLost
Zhizhen Zhang$89 @ 49.0¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS PlayoffsWon
LYON$3.5k @ 44.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?Won
No$996 @ 34.0¢
1H Spread: 76ers (-0.5)Lost
76ers$40 @ 60.5¢
Valorant: Barça eSports vs DNSTY (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 1 PlayoffsWon
DNSTY$1.4k @ 33.0¢
Miami Open: Marcos Giron vs Martin LandaluceWon
Martin Landaluce$239 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	No	$3.0k	29.3¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	Sports	Cloud9	$3.0k	32.0¢
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$142	12.0¢

Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
No$3.0k @ 29.3¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-InSports
Cloud9$3.0k @ 32.0¢
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?Politics
Yes$142 @ 12.0¢