0x47c1…825f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x47c1c4d166c200e5455fca85d3b8f155f8f3825f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.5pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

13% @ 9.8¢

Brier

0.102

Resolved

5852

Avg size

$20

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	21% (81/395)	+4%	395
Politics	19% (4/21)	-71%	21
Sports	25% (2/8)	-3%	8
Culture	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Tech	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+685%	1

Other395 bets
Hit rate
21% (81/395)
ROI
+4%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
19% (4/21)
ROI
-71%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-3%
Culture8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+685%

Track record

20% hit · 88/443

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	No	$93	1.5¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Will another outcome occur in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2500 on May 16?	Yes	$15	11.0¢	Lost
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch?	No	$11	3.4¢	Lost
Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?	No	$72	18.0¢	Lost
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?	No	$98	2.1¢	Lost
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?	Yes	$252	7.9¢	Lost
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$48	8.8¢	Won
Will A$AP Rocky release a new song in 2026?	No	$4	0.5¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?	Yes	$8	14.0¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$128	26.0¢	Lost
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?	No	$3.2k	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?	No	$220	18.3¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$2.4k	26.6¢	Lost
Will Trudeau resign by Wednesday?	No	$403	4.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 9?	Yes	$75	16.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$78	2.8¢	Lost
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	No	$37	4.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?	No	$445	0.6¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?	No	$135	6.8¢	Lost
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses (BO3)	Evil Geniuses	$32	44.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	No	$180	17.6¢	Won
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$6	1.3¢	Lost
Will Conservative Party win 140-154 seats in the next UK Election?	Yes	$268	3.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	1.1¢	Lost
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?	Yes	$4	0.9¢	Lost
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner	G2 Esports	$281	25.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk speak at Trump's Pennsylvania rally Saturday?	No	$250	19.2¢	Lost
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?	No	$491	25.4¢	Lost
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev	Alcaraz	$236	23.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?	Yes	$7	1.3¢	Lost
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will England win?	Yes	$50	11.0¢	Lost
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	No	$36	18.0¢	Lost
Solana above $145 on August 30?	No	$433	19.5¢	Won
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?	No	$133	4.0¢	Lost
Will Trump recognize Syrian government before August?	No	$216	14.8¢	Lost
Will J.D. Vance say "stolen valor" during Michigan rally?	Yes	$257	30.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$115	4.5¢	Lost
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa	South Africa	$50	29.0¢	Won
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$881	4.1¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$299	24.9¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$23	23.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?	Yes	$24	13.0¢	Lost
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?	No	$36	9.0¢	Lost
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	KT Rolster	$72	29.0¢	Won
Will Fernanda Torres win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?	Yes	$155	9.8¢	Won

Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$93 @ 1.5¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 8.0¢
Will another outcome occur in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2500 on May 16?Lost
Yes$15 @ 11.0¢
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Lost
No$11 @ 3.4¢
Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Lost
No$72 @ 18.0¢
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$98 @ 2.1¢
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$252 @ 7.9¢
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Won
Yes$48 @ 8.8¢
Will A$AP Rocky release a new song in 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 0.5¢
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?Lost
Yes$8 @ 14.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$128 @ 26.0¢
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?Lost
No$3.2k @ 2.4¢
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?Lost
No$220 @ 18.3¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 26.6¢
Will Trudeau resign by Wednesday?Lost
No$403 @ 4.1¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 9?Lost
Yes$75 @ 16.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$78 @ 2.8¢
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$37 @ 4.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Lost
No$445 @ 0.6¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?Lost
No$135 @ 6.8¢
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses (BO3)Lost
Evil Geniuses$32 @ 44.2¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Won
No$180 @ 17.6¢
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.3¢
Will Conservative Party win 140-154 seats in the next UK Election?Lost
Yes$268 @ 3.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 1.1¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 1 WinnerLost
G2 Esports$281 @ 25.0¢
Will Elon Musk speak at Trump's Pennsylvania rally Saturday?Lost
No$250 @ 19.2¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Lost
No$491 @ 25.4¢
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevWon
Alcaraz$236 @ 23.0¢
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.3¢
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will England win?Lost
Yes$50 @ 11.0¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Lost
No$36 @ 18.0¢
Solana above $145 on August 30?Won
No$433 @ 19.5¢
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Lost
No$133 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump recognize Syrian government before August?Lost
No$216 @ 14.8¢
Will J.D. Vance say "stolen valor" during Michigan rally?Lost
Yes$257 @ 30.5¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Lost
Yes$115 @ 4.5¢
T20 World Cup: India vs South AfricaWon
South Africa$50 @ 29.0¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$881 @ 4.1¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
Yes$299 @ 24.9¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$23 @ 23.0¢
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?Lost
Yes$24 @ 13.0¢
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?Lost
No$36 @ 9.0¢
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 WinnerWon
KT Rolster$72 @ 29.0¢
Will Fernanda Torres win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?Won
Yes$155 @ 9.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	14.8¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$404	20.2¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$255	17.7¢
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$208	0.3¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$182	1.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$173	0.5¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$155	8.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$144	7.2¢
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$100	0.1¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$86	42.7¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$82	20.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$73	16.0¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$70	1.4¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$56	14.0¢
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$53	31.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$52	3.2¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$40	20.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$36	36.0¢
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$29	18.0¢
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$28	4.5¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$26	13.1¢
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$25	21.0¢
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$23	12.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	20.0¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$18	9.0¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$15	0.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?	Politics	Yes	$14	1.6¢
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$14	0.5¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$13	66.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	13.0¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 14.8¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$404 @ 20.2¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$255 @ 17.7¢
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$208 @ 0.3¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$182 @ 1.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$173 @ 0.5¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$155 @ 8.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$144 @ 7.2¢
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$100 @ 0.1¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$86 @ 42.7¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$82 @ 20.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$73 @ 16.0¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$70 @ 1.4¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$56 @ 14.0¢
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$53 @ 31.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$52 @ 3.2¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$40 @ 20.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$36 @ 36.0¢
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$29 @ 18.0¢
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$28 @ 4.5¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$26 @ 13.1¢
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$25 @ 21.0¢
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$23 @ 12.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$18 @ 9.0¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$15 @ 0.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?Politics
Yes$14 @ 1.6¢
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$14 @ 0.5¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢