0x477d…4f06

Specialization by sphere

• Other28 bets

  Hit rate

  54% (15/28)

  ROI

  +67%

• Politics24 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (12/24)

  ROI

  -22%

• Crypto6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  +37%

• Geopolitics3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  -43%

• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
• Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
  Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
• US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 73.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 59.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 18.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
  No$1 @ 60.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 74.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 22.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 83.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 20.3¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$3 @ 76.4¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
  No$3 @ 85.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 13.5¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 17.4¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$30 @ 47.5¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 18.7¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
  No$2 @ 70.5¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$1 @ 24.7¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$2 @ 5.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 31.8¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
  Yes$4 @ 79.4¢
• Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
  No$2 @ 83.0¢
• Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 7.7¢
• Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
  No$2 @ 71.1¢
• Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 34.5¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 23.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 71.2¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$8 @ 18.7¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
  Yes$1 @ 57.0¢
• Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
• Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
  No$1 @ 35.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$5 @ 44.7¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 33.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$3 @ 81.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$13 @ 36.3¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 36.9¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 26.7¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$34 @ 55.6¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$1 @ 86.0¢
• Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
  No$4 @ 22.0¢
• Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
  Yes$11 @ 78.5¢
• Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Won
  Yes$24 @ 38.1¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$2 @ 50.5¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$2 @ 38.2¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
  No$3 @ 78.7¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$6 @ 87.0¢

Current positions

• Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Geopolitics
  Yes$31 @ 70.8¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$29 @ 97.1¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$21 @ 68.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  No$9 @ 85.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  Yes$8 @ 15.1¢
• Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 82.3¢
• Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 91.5¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
  No$6 @ 95.4¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 83.9¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  No$3 @ 59.9¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$3 @ 90.7¢
• Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Politics
  Yes$2 @ 84.0¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30?Politics
  No$2 @ 97.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?Politics
  No$2 @ 93.4¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$2 @ 75.1¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Politics
  No$2 @ 70.5¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
  No$2 @ 70.5¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  Yes$2 @ 29.5¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
  No$2 @ 91.4¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
• Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2 @ 10.8¢
• Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics
  No$2 @ 20.0¢
• Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
• Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 91.0¢
• Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 66.0¢
• Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?Politics
  No$1 @ 92.0¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Politics
  No$1 @ 98.0¢
• Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Geopolitics
  No$1 @ 18.0¢