0x477d…4f06

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x477dd7a68bc4c6e5d13564a0c91fe9ea2db74f06
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.4pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

54% @ 43.2¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

293

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	63% (27/43)	-10%	43
Other	53% (21/40)	+47%	40
Geopolitics	75% (9/12)	+4%	12
Crypto	50% (3/6)	+37%	6

Politics43 bets
Hit rate
63% (27/43)
ROI
-10%
Other40 bets
Hit rate
53% (21/40)
ROI
+47%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+4%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+37%

Track record

59% hit · 60/101

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	96.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$7	90.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	91.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$1	70.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$6	95.4¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$2	91.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	70.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	26.9¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?	Yes	$1	7.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	98.4¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?	Yes	$1	3.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	89.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	$26	97.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	90.7¢	Won
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	90.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	91.9¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$13	97.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$2	75.1¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$23	74.4¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$3	83.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$4	79.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$8	15.1¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$1	98.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$1	96.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$3	59.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$2	97.9¢	Won
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	$31	70.8¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	No	$1	93.9¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	97.7¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$3	97.2¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$2	95.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Yes	$1	61.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	18.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$2	74.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$10	22.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	20.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$3	76.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$3	85.0¢	Won

Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?Won
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 96.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$7 @ 90.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 91.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$1 @ 70.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$6 @ 95.4¢
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
Yes$2 @ 91.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 70.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 23.0¢
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 98.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 89.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 97.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 90.7¢
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 90.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 91.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 97.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 75.1¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$23 @ 74.4¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 83.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$4 @ 79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 98.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 96.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 59.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 97.9¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Lost
No$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$31 @ 70.8¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Won
No$1 @ 93.9¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 97.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 97.2¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 95.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 74.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 22.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 20.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$3 @ 76.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$3 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$6	82.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2	84.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?	Politics	No	$2	93.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Politics	No	$2	70.5¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	10.8¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	91.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	66.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?	Politics	No	$1	92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Politics	No	$1	83.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat?	Politics	No	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat?	Politics	No	$1	93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?	Politics	No	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat?	Politics	No	$1	93.0¢

Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$6 @ 82.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Politics
Yes$2 @ 84.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?Politics
No$2 @ 93.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Politics
No$2 @ 70.5¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 10.8¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 91.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 66.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?Politics
No$1 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Politics
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat?Politics
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat?Politics
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?Politics
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat?Politics
No$1 @ 93.0¢