0x4266…5305

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4266d3aeedfb1a99f8a79406d97e2b230c725305
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.4pp

ROI

+44%

Win rate

55% @ 47.8¢

Brier

0.097

Resolved

290

Avg size

$653

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (18/52)	-3%	52
Sports	50% (9/18)	+94%	18
Crypto	17% (1/6)	-18%	6
Politics	40% (2/5)	+23%	5
Tech	75% (3/4)	+17%	4
Economy	33% (1/3)	-1%	3

Other52 bets
Hit rate
35% (18/52)
ROI
-3%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
50% (9/18)
ROI
+94%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-18%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+23%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+17%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-1%

Track record

39% hit · 34/88

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?	No	$2.6k	57.8¢	Lost
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VIII?	No	$4.6k	69.9¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	$2.3k	69.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Vitality	$2.0k	83.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$399	23.6¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A	NRG	$110	20.0¢	Lost
Toledo vs. Louisville	Louisville	$237	79.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$898	64.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11?	No	$34	1.3¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?	Yes	$234	18.7¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$9.5k	88.6¢	Won
Jazz vs. Thunder	Jazz	$66	13.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.8k	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.9k	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$1.3k	69.4¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$400	57.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	MOUZ	$160	44.0¢	Won
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$400	76.8¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$775	23.0¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$814	74.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	RED Canids	$30	4.0¢	Lost
76ers vs. Wizards	Wizards	$120	8.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9?	No	$41	2.6¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	$1.0k	6.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$336	36.0¢	Lost
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	Yes	$24	0.8¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.2k	2.1¢	Lost
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta	Pablo Carreno Busta	$266	78.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$219	2.4¢	Lost
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?	No	$100	26.0¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$8.0k	78.4¢	Lost
Biden drops out of presidential race?	No	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Biden drops out of presidential race?	Yes	$99	62.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 14?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Yes	$77	8.7¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	Argentina	$13.1k	86.8¢	Won
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?	No	$180	19.0¢	Lost
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?	No	$1000	88.0¢	Won
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$1.7k	86.0¢	Lost
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$59	9.9¢	Lost
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$6.8k	48.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$11	0.8¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$70	4.6¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?	Yes	$83	0.8¢	Lost
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	$92	9.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20?	No	$207	14.0¢	Lost
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?	Yes	$125	8.6¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15.1k	15.5¢	Won

Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?Lost
No$2.6k @ 57.8¢
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VIII?Won
No$4.6k @ 69.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsLost
PARIVISION$2.3k @ 69.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsWon
Vitality$2.0k @ 83.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$399 @ 23.6¢
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group ALost
NRG$110 @ 20.0¢
Toledo vs. LouisvilleWon
Louisville$237 @ 79.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$898 @ 64.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11?Lost
No$34 @ 1.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?Lost
Yes$234 @ 18.7¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$9.5k @ 88.6¢
Jazz vs. ThunderLost
Jazz$66 @ 13.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.9k @ 77.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 69.4¢
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$400 @ 57.1¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsWon
MOUZ$160 @ 44.0¢
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$400 @ 76.8¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$775 @ 23.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$814 @ 74.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group ALost
RED Canids$30 @ 4.0¢
76ers vs. WizardsLost
Wizards$120 @ 8.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9?Lost
No$41 @ 2.6¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Lost
No$1.0k @ 6.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$336 @ 36.0¢
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$24 @ 0.8¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 2.1¢
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno BustaWon
Pablo Carreno Busta$266 @ 78.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$219 @ 2.4¢
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Lost
No$100 @ 26.0¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
No$8.0k @ 78.4¢
Biden drops out of presidential race?Lost
No$50 @ 25.0¢
Biden drops out of presidential race?Won
Yes$99 @ 62.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 14?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?Lost
Yes$77 @ 8.7¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$13.1k @ 86.8¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?Lost
No$180 @ 19.0¢
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?Won
No$1000 @ 88.0¢
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 86.0¢
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$59 @ 9.9¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
No$6.8k @ 48.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.8¢
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$70 @ 4.6¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?Lost
Yes$83 @ 0.8¢
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez IzquierdoLost
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$92 @ 9.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20?Lost
No$207 @ 14.0¢
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?Lost
Yes$125 @ 8.6¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$15.1k @ 15.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Economy	No	$268	8.3¢
Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$248	1.2¢
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$227	2.4¢
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$149	2.5¢

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Economy
No$268 @ 8.3¢
Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$248 @ 1.2¢
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$227 @ 2.4¢
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$149 @ 2.5¢