0x41ea…7a3d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x41eacf5aaa4c7fc883a098635b981050715d7a3d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+45%

Win rate

32% @ 23.9¢

Brier

0.129

Resolved

1823

Avg size

$104

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (40/83)	+71%	83
Politics	57% (12/21)	+27%	21
Sports	40% (2/5)	+44%	5
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	-47%	4
Tech	67% (2/3)	+11%	3

Other83 bets
Hit rate
48% (40/83)
ROI
+71%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
57% (12/21)
ROI
+27%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+44%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-47%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+11%

Track record

50% hit · 58/116

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	$7	73.3¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1.2k	12.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$6.2k	69.3¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$2.3k	58.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$224	59.0¢	Lost
California redistricting referendum passes?	No	$202	14.0¢	Lost
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?	Yes	$1.7k	46.4¢	Won
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$265	16.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$6.6k	53.2¢	Won
New arrests in Charlie Kirk shooting by September 30?	Yes	$1.4k	16.7¢	Lost
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	$2.0k	20.0¢	Lost
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?	Yes	$1.3k	14.1¢	Lost
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	$14	88.0¢	Won
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?	Yes	$769	48.8¢	Won
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$1.6k	7.6¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	$324	64.5¢	Won
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will J Balvin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	$1.0k	67.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	No	$2.4k	35.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$2.1k	42.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$10.6k	47.6¢	Lost
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?	No	$2.7k	13.8¢	Lost
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?	Yes	$138	79.9¢	Won
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$2.6k	31.6¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?	No	$1.4k	72.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?	Yes	$1.8k	19.3¢	Lost
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?	No	$27	85.7¢	Lost
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?	Yes	$757	14.1¢	Won
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?	Yes	$4.0k	58.1¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$4.8k	69.0¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton drop out?	No	$1000	74.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$159	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	No	$2.1k	24.1¢	Lost
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	No	$439	57.8¢	Won
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?	Yes	$25	16.7¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2.4k	80.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$5.0k	62.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$6.7k	22.5¢	Lost
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	$43	82.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$8.6k	69.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$1.3k	4.6¢	Won
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$650	1.3¢	Lost
Prince Andrew released by February 20?	Yes	$152	66.3¢	Won
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?	No	$1.0k	5.6¢	Lost
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?	Yes	$2.3k	22.8¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	No	$2.5k	40.7¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$132	66.0¢	Lost
Will Young Kim advance from the CA-40 primary election?	No	$150	20.0¢	Lost
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$2.1k	61.3¢	Won

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Won
Yes$7 @ 73.3¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 12.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$6.2k @ 69.3¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 58.0¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$224 @ 59.0¢
California redistricting referendum passes?Lost
No$202 @ 14.0¢
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 46.4¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$265 @ 16.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$6.6k @ 53.2¢
New arrests in Charlie Kirk shooting by September 30?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 16.7¢
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 20.0¢
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 14.1¢
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Won
Yes$14 @ 88.0¢
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?Won
Yes$769 @ 48.8¢
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 7.6¢
Knicks vs. CavaliersWon
Knicks$324 @ 64.5¢
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 11.0¢
Will J Balvin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Won
No$1.0k @ 67.0¢
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
No$2.4k @ 35.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$2.1k @ 42.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$10.6k @ 47.6¢
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?Lost
No$2.7k @ 13.8¢
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?Won
Yes$138 @ 79.9¢
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 31.6¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 72.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 19.3¢
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?Lost
No$27 @ 85.7¢
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?Won
Yes$757 @ 14.1¢
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 58.1¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$4.8k @ 69.0¢
Will Ken Paxton drop out?Won
No$1000 @ 74.6¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$159 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Lost
No$2.1k @ 24.1¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Won
No$439 @ 57.8¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?Lost
Yes$25 @ 16.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 80.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$5.0k @ 62.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$6.7k @ 22.5¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?Won
No$43 @ 82.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$8.6k @ 69.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 4.6¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$650 @ 1.3¢
Prince Andrew released by February 20?Won
Yes$152 @ 66.3¢
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?Lost
No$1.0k @ 5.6¢
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 22.8¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Won
No$2.5k @ 40.7¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$132 @ 66.0¢
Will Young Kim advance from the CA-40 primary election?Lost
No$150 @ 20.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 61.3¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10.6k	39.7¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$4.6k	28.3¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$4.1k	1.1¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.3k	22.2¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$2.9k	38.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	27.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	21.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.1k	46.9¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$1.9k	34.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	56.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	6.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	22.4¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	31.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	36.7¢
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	7.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$1.2k	15.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	42.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Politics	No	$1.1k	20.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	27.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$991	41.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$726	26.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$560	7.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$553	7.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$541	43.0¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$474	0.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Politics	No	$366	62.0¢
Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?	Politics	Yes	$354	70.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$329	1.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$134	48.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$93	62.0¢

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
Yes$10.6k @ 39.7¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$4.6k @ 28.3¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$4.1k @ 1.1¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.3k @ 22.2¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$2.9k @ 38.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 27.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 21.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$2.1k @ 46.9¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$1.9k @ 34.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 56.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 6.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 22.4¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 31.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 36.7¢
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 7.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$1.2k @ 15.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 42.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?Politics
No$1.1k @ 20.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 27.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$991 @ 41.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?Politics
No$726 @ 26.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$560 @ 7.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$553 @ 7.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$541 @ 43.0¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$474 @ 0.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?Politics
No$366 @ 62.0¢
Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?Politics
Yes$354 @ 70.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$329 @ 1.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$134 @ 48.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?Politics
Yes$93 @ 62.0¢