0x396f…7f78

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x396f35c4d4f84c0a6c5f3b13e40e1de550367f78
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

34% @ 29.8¢

Brier

0.137

Resolved

2455

Avg size

$106

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (111/263)	-3%	263
Politics	41% (22/54)	+40%	54
Sports	38% (5/13)	-7%	13
Crypto	33% (3/9)	-15%	9
Tech	25% (2/8)	+16%	8
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	-99%	4
Culture	100% (2/2)	+55%	2

Other263 bets
Hit rate
42% (111/263)
ROI
-3%
Politics54 bets
Hit rate
41% (22/54)
ROI
+40%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
-7%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-15%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-99%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+55%

Track record

41% hit · 146/353

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$240	24.0¢	Lost
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$76	25.2¢	Lost
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?	No	$50	10.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	No	$94	9.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$1.8k	58.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$310	31.0¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$740	74.0¢	Won
Will 0 weightlifting world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$270	27.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$12	3.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	$563	32.8¢	Won
No airdrop in 2025?	No	$852	85.2¢	Won
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$919	7.5¢	Lost
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	$106	0.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$513	2.1¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	Yes	$101	10.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$11.0k	68.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.8k	24.9¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop before January 1?	Yes	$1.4k	88.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$25	3.5¢	Lost
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	No	$2.4k	41.4¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?	No	$42	2.1¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?	Yes	$513	76.3¢	Won
Will the fight end in a draw?	Yes	$135	2.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	Yes	$39	27.0¢	Lost
Will the fight go the distance?	Yes	$403	20.0¢	Lost
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?	Yes	$15	1.0¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$185	35.4¢	Lost
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	No	$2	23.0¢	Lost
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	Yes	$1.3k	66.9¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$830	83.0¢	Won
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$200	10.0¢	Lost
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$1.3k	62.9¢	Won
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$56	2.8¢	Lost
Enhanced Games: Kristian Gkolomeev 50m Freestyle Time Under 20.88?	Yes	$31	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$164	1.9¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 34.5 and 35.0 million views on day 4?	No	$851	85.1¢	Won
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	No	$327	5.3¢	Lost
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?	Yes	$919	15.3¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?	No	$78	2.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's latest video get 60 million or more views on week 1?	Yes	$26	2.7¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?	No	$479	47.9¢	Won
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?	Yes	$1.3k	64.5¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$855	4.3¢	Lost
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$558	73.1¢	Won
Will Jake Paul win by decision or technical decision?	Yes	$78	4.2¢	Lost
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$188	5.9¢	Lost
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$1.3k	89.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31?	No	$510	12.7¢	Lost

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$240 @ 24.0¢
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 25.2¢
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?Lost
No$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Lost
No$94 @ 9.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$1.8k @ 58.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$310 @ 31.0¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$740 @ 74.0¢
Will 0 weightlifting world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?Won
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$270 @ 27.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.2¢
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?Won
Yes$563 @ 32.8¢
No airdrop in 2025?Won
No$852 @ 85.2¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$919 @ 7.5¢
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Lost
No$106 @ 0.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$513 @ 2.1¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Lost
Yes$101 @ 10.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$11.0k @ 68.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8.8k @ 24.9¢
Lighter Airdrop before January 1?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 88.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$25 @ 3.5¢
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?Lost
No$2.4k @ 41.4¢
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?Lost
No$42 @ 2.1¢
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$513 @ 76.3¢
Will the fight end in a draw?Lost
Yes$135 @ 2.3¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Lost
Yes$39 @ 27.0¢
Will the fight go the distance?Lost
Yes$403 @ 20.0¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Lost
Yes$15 @ 1.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
Yes$185 @ 35.4¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Lost
No$2 @ 23.0¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 66.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$830 @ 83.0¢
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$200 @ 10.0¢
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 62.9¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$56 @ 2.8¢
Enhanced Games: Kristian Gkolomeev 50m Freestyle Time Under 20.88?Won
Yes$31 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$164 @ 1.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 34.5 and 35.0 million views on day 4?Won
No$851 @ 85.1¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Lost
No$327 @ 5.3¢
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?Lost
Yes$919 @ 15.3¢
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?Lost
No$78 @ 2.5¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get 60 million or more views on week 1?Lost
Yes$26 @ 2.7¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?Won
No$479 @ 47.9¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 64.5¢
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$855 @ 4.3¢
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$558 @ 73.1¢
Will Jake Paul win by decision or technical decision?Lost
Yes$78 @ 4.2¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
No$188 @ 5.9¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 89.5¢
Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31?Lost
No$510 @ 12.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$1.5k	50.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$627	2.1¢
Modi out by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$170	17.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$136	6.8¢
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$100	10.0¢
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$80	8.0¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$1.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$627 @ 2.1¢
Modi out by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
Yes$136 @ 6.8¢
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?Tech
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Modi out by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$80 @ 8.0¢