0x38cf…7148

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x38cf62d2fee064fc6316775a4bde92d4a0f17148
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.7pp

ROI

+38%

Win rate

37% @ 24.7¢

Brier

0.205

Resolved

425

Avg size

$11

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (51/127)	+41%	127
Politics	17% (7/41)	+14%	41
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other127 bets
Hit rate
40% (51/127)
ROI
+41%
Politics41 bets
Hit rate
17% (7/41)
ROI
+14%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

34% hit · 58/170

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?	Yes	$42	42.0¢	Won
ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$156	45.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Science Summit remarks?	No	$16	16.0¢	Lost
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$27	26.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	No	$8	8.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?	Yes	$27	13.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$36	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Deficit" during National Agriculture Day events?	Yes	$43	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Taoiseach events?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Eight War" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$29	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Merry Christmas" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?	Yes	$6	30.0¢	Lost
ChatGPT Outage by March 27?	Yes	$0	24.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$15	14.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?	No	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$5	4.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$3	24.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pearl Harbor" this week?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Ass" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event?	Yes	$32	32.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?	Yes	$0	20.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	$6	4.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "College Sports" during his Midterm Rally in Alabama?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$5	5.1¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?	No	$5	5.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear dust" during Monday news conference?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Lost
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?	Yes	$9	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" or "Friend" or "Ally" 7+ times during events with Japanese PM?	Yes	$0	24.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "ISIS" during Monday news conference?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Death to America" this week? (April 20 - 26)	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$5	4.6¢	Lost
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$593	85.0¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Won
Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$23	23.0¢	Won
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in September?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies?	Yes	$45	45.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	$19	19.3¢	Lost
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$8	7.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ethiopia" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Russia" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$23	23.0¢	Won
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Invictus Gaming	$94	53.1¢	Won
Will Trump post "President DJT" on Truth Social this week? (March 8)	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?	Yes	$52	52.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	$6	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration / Obliterating" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?	Yes	$11	35.0¢	Won

Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Won
Yes$42 @ 42.0¢
ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$156 @ 45.7¢
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Science Summit remarks?Lost
No$16 @ 16.0¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$27 @ 26.6¢
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Won
No$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?Lost
Yes$27 @ 13.5¢
Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
Yes$36 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump say "Deficit" during National Agriculture Day events?Lost
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events?Won
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Taoiseach events?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump say "Eight War" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$29 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump say "Merry Christmas" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?Lost
Yes$6 @ 30.0¢
ChatGPT Outage by March 27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 14.8¢
Will Trump say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?Lost
No$14 @ 14.0¢
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.5¢
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$3 @ 24.0¢
Will Trump say "Pearl Harbor" this week?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump post "Ass" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event?Won
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 20.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.2¢
Will Trump say "College Sports" during his Midterm Rally in Alabama?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.1¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?Lost
No$5 @ 5.2¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear dust" during Monday news conference?Lost
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?Lost
Yes$9 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" or "Friend" or "Ally" 7+ times during events with Japanese PM?Won
Yes$0 @ 24.0¢
Will Trump say "ISIS" during Monday news conference?Won
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "Death to America" this week? (April 20 - 26)Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.6¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$593 @ 85.0¢
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?Won
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in September?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies?Lost
Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?Lost
No$19 @ 19.3¢
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.8¢
Will Trump say "Ethiopia" during the State of the Union address?Won
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump say "Russia" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 WinnerWon
Invictus Gaming$94 @ 53.1¢
Will Trump post "President DJT" on Truth Social this week? (March 8)Won
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?Won
Yes$52 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17?Lost
Yes$6 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration / Obliterating" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?Won
Yes$11 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$16	16.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	11.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	11.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	4.0¢
Will Trump say "Caterpillar" in October?	Politics	Yes	$2	26.0¢

Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?Politics
Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 11.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump say "Caterpillar" in October?Politics
Yes$2 @ 26.0¢