← Smart money
0x35dd…75f3
ProfitableEdge
+41.1pp
ROI
+96%
Win rate
84% @ 42.4¢
Brier
0.328
Resolved
158
Avg size
$165
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50% (4/8) | +96% | 8 |
| Other | 33% (1/3) | +101% | 3 |
| Culture | 100% (1/1) | +67% | 1 |
- Politics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (4/8)
- ROI
- +96%
- Other3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +101%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +67%
Track record
50% hit · 6/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | $1.4k | 37.9¢ | Won |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? | Yes | $69 | 21.2¢ | Lost |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? | Yes | $62 | 15.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | Yes | $51 | 51.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | $1.7k | 57.8¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $14.0k | 45.9¢ | Won |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | Yes | $49 | 48.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | Yes | $50 | 50.0¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | $1.9k | 53.2¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | $6.7k | 40.5¢ | Won |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? | No | $122 | 60.0¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $94 | 20.9¢ | Won |
- Yes$1.4k @ 37.9¢
- Yes$69 @ 21.2¢
- Yes$62 @ 15.4¢
- Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
- No$1.7k @ 57.8¢
- Yes$14.0k @ 45.9¢
- Yes$49 @ 48.4¢
- Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 53.2¢
- Yes$6.7k @ 40.5¢
- No$122 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$94 @ 20.9¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | Politics | Yes | $454 | 46.0¢ |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $37 | 73.8¢ |
- Yes$454 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$37 @ 73.8¢