0x309f…b99c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x309f47042b1589baa65293de76f5756f8154b99c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-9.9pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

31% @ 41.0¢

Brier

0.218

Resolved

1062

Avg size

$67

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (29/71)	+15%	71
Politics	33% (2/6)	-30%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-14%	3

Other71 bets
Hit rate
41% (29/71)
ROI
+15%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-30%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-14%

Track record

40% hit · 32/80

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$701	41.0¢	Won
FIFA Friendlies Parlay	No	$52	47.0¢	Lost
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?	No	$627	36.8¢	Lost
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?	Yes	$5.9k	46.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Next US strike on Syria on December 18?	Yes	$7	0.7¢	Lost
Will Marc Guehi sign with a new club during the winter transfer window?	Yes	$96	48.0¢	Won
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.6% in November?	Yes	$13	11.1¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$397	44.0¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?	No	$280	85.0¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$30	12.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$2.3k	74.6¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$128	12.8¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$105	21.0¢	Lost
Next US strike on Syria on December 19?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?	Yes	$91	15.6¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?	No	$1.5k	11.5¢	Lost
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November?	No	$48	78.4¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	No	$129	0.4¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$111	10.1¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$11.3k	86.3¢	Won
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	No	$6.1k	61.8¢	Lost
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$1.2k	85.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.4k	44.2¢	Won
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$3	2.9¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 23?	Yes	$17	6.5¢	Lost
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?	No	$1.3k	62.5¢	Won
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?	Yes	$627	18.6¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: January	No	$326	81.6¢	Won
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 24 be between 2,000,000 and 2,250,000?	Yes	$45	77.9¢	Won
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.7% in November?	Yes	$11	3.0¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 26?	Yes	$26	8.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	No	$8.1k	72.3¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$956	44.6¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 19 be between 2,500,000 and 2,750,000?	Yes	$21	21.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	$79	86.9¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$279	55.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$67	49.0¢	Won
Steam Awards Parlay	Yes	$39	19.5¢	Lost
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation increase by ≤0.1% in November?	Yes	$74	68.8¢	Won
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$196	19.6¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 17 be between 2,250,000 and 2,500,000?	Yes	$56	56.0¢	Won
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by ≥3.8% in November?	Yes	$10	2.9¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$517	49.6¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$666	43.3¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: November	No	$1.2k	29.7¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: December	No	$3.8k	26.1¢	Lost
No US strike on Syria in 2025?	No	$155	14.1¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$184	18.4¢	Lost
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 23?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost

Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
No$701 @ 41.0¢
FIFA Friendlies ParlayLost
No$52 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Lost
No$627 @ 36.8¢
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Won
Yes$5.9k @ 46.7¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Next US strike on Syria on December 18?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.7¢
Will Marc Guehi sign with a new club during the winter transfer window?Won
Yes$96 @ 48.0¢
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.6% in November?Lost
Yes$13 @ 11.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$397 @ 44.0¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?Won
No$280 @ 85.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$30 @ 12.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$2.3k @ 74.6¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$128 @ 12.8¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 21.0¢
Next US strike on Syria on December 19?Won
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?Lost
Yes$91 @ 15.6¢
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Lost
No$1.5k @ 11.5¢
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November?Won
No$48 @ 78.4¢
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?Lost
No$129 @ 0.4¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$111 @ 10.1¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$11.3k @ 86.3¢
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
No$6.1k @ 61.8¢
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 85.9¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 44.2¢
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 23?Lost
Yes$17 @ 6.5¢
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 62.5¢
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$627 @ 18.6¢
Nothing Ever Happens: JanuaryWon
No$326 @ 81.6¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 24 be between 2,000,000 and 2,250,000?Won
Yes$45 @ 77.9¢
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.7% in November?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.0¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 26?Lost
Yes$26 @ 8.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Won
No$8.1k @ 72.3¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$956 @ 44.6¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 19 be between 2,500,000 and 2,750,000?Lost
Yes$21 @ 21.0¢
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?Won
Yes$79 @ 86.9¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$279 @ 55.0¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$67 @ 49.0¢
Steam Awards ParlayLost
Yes$39 @ 19.5¢
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation increase by ≤0.1% in November?Won
Yes$74 @ 68.8¢
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$196 @ 19.6¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 17 be between 2,250,000 and 2,500,000?Won
Yes$56 @ 56.0¢
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by ≥3.8% in November?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$517 @ 49.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$666 @ 43.3¢
Nothing Ever Happens: NovemberLost
No$1.2k @ 29.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberLost
No$3.8k @ 26.1¢
No US strike on Syria in 2025?Won
No$155 @ 14.1¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$184 @ 18.4¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$1.1k	53.0¢
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$1.0k	5.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$513	62.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$325	39.7¢
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$86	4.1¢

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$1.1k @ 53.0¢
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$1.0k @ 5.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$513 @ 62.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$325 @ 39.7¢
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$86 @ 4.1¢