0x28fc…4e92

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x28fcfce0a2910e031ab59fc5dc76487e94504e92
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.8pp

ROI

+33%

Win rate

39% @ 28.4¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	11% (2/19)	+60%	19
Other	25% (3/12)	+56%	12
Sports	70% (7/10)	+10%	10
Tech	50% (4/8)	+43%	8
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics19 bets
Hit rate
11% (2/19)
ROI
+60%
Other12 bets
Hit rate
25% (3/12)
ROI
+56%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
70% (7/10)
ROI
+10%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+43%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

29% hit · 16/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	Over	$3	68.0¢	Won
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.6M and 6.7M in April?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	$1	3.3¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June?	No	$3	61.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$5	69.2¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7?	No	$2	46.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	$1	2.4¢	Lost
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$2	4.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$1	12.9¢	Lost
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$6	69.4¢	Won
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$6	66.4¢	Won
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$3	68.0¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$2	48.0¢	Won
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$4	76.9¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	80.0¢	Won
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Under	$4	78.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	68.4¢	Won
Celtics vs. Nets	Nets	$3	24.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	Yes	$9	25.7¢	Won
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	$1	3.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?	No	$9	21.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	86.6¢	Won
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$7	18.1¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$4	76.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	25.5¢	Won
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	$1	1.4¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost

France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5Won
Over$3 @ 68.0¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.6M and 6.7M in April?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.3¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June?Won
No$3 @ 61.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
No$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7?Won
No$2 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.9¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$6 @ 69.4¢
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?Lost
No$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
Yes$6 @ 66.4¢
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$2 @ 48.0¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$4 @ 76.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$4 @ 80.0¢
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$4 @ 78.0¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$6 @ 68.4¢
Celtics vs. NetsLost
Nets$3 @ 24.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?Won
Yes$9 @ 25.7¢
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.8¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?Lost
No$9 @ 21.2¢
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 86.6¢
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
Yes$7 @ 18.1¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$4 @ 76.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 25.5¢
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
No$1 @ 1.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Lost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$9	45.8¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?	Other	No	$7	73.0¢
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?	—	Yes	$6	77.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$6	34.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$6	20.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	No	$6	63.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	63.5¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	16.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$6	93.5¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Politics	No	$6	59.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$6	59.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$6	77.5¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$6	68.6¢
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027?	—	No	$6	64.0¢
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Crypto	No	$6	80.5¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	No	$6	42.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?	Other	No	$6	80.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$6	70.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?	Other	Yes	$5	17.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$5	96.0¢
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	Politics	No	$5	98.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$5	75.8¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$5	19.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?	—	No	$5	74.4¢
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$4	66.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	64.8¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	77.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$4	28.0¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?	Other	Yes	$4	23.2¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$4	71.0¢

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$9 @ 45.8¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?Other
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?—
Yes$6 @ 77.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$6 @ 34.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$6 @ 20.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
No$6 @ 63.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 63.5¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 16.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 93.5¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 59.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 59.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$6 @ 77.5¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
No$6 @ 68.6¢
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027?—
No$6 @ 64.0¢
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?Crypto
No$6 @ 80.5¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
No$6 @ 42.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?Other
No$6 @ 80.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Politics
Yes$6 @ 70.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Other
Yes$5 @ 17.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$5 @ 96.0¢
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?Politics
No$5 @ 98.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$5 @ 75.8¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$5 @ 19.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?—
No$5 @ 74.4¢
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?Tech
No$4 @ 66.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 64.8¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 77.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$4 @ 28.0¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?Other
Yes$4 @ 23.2¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$4 @ 71.0¢