0x2617…afc5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2617d814c101c9bb384081f2357822c778aeafc5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

61% @ 52.7¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

271

Avg size

$26

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (104/184)	+15%	184
Sports	44% (4/9)	-18%	9
Politics	100% (6/6)	+40%	6
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+13%	3

Other184 bets
Hit rate
57% (104/184)
ROI
+15%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-18%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+40%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+13%

Track record

58% hit · 117/202

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?	No	$16	82.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$31	20.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	No	$20	84.0¢	Won
French election called by October 10?	No	$31	84.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$40	74.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?	No	$60	81.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	90k	$20	29.4¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	Yes	$40	79.2¢	Won
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	Yes	$10	17.0¢	Lost
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$9	79.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$20	51.0¢	Lost
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djokovic	Djokovic	$22	69.0¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$19	88.0¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling	Sterling	$20	77.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$60	88.0¢	Won
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	No	$15	33.0¢	Lost
California redistricting referendum passes?	Yes	$20	88.0¢	Won
Yoon arrested by Friday?	Yes	$20	38.6¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?	Yes	$18	56.0¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$39	62.9¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?	No	$20	89.9¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	No	$40	61.5¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.9% on May 2?	Yes	$16	79.0¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$20	88.0¢	Won
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?	Yes	$12	18.3¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	No	$20	85.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$26	54.0¢	Won
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner	Sinner	$40	90.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28?	Yes	$40	69.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15?	No	$15	23.0¢	Lost
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m?	No	$20	65.8¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?	No	$30	74.0¢	Won
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?	No	$30	79.0¢	Won
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?	Yes	$22	32.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?	No	$22	89.8¢	Won
Thunder vs. Nuggets	Thunder	$12	61.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?	No	$12	59.0¢	Lost
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?	Yes	$21	69.0¢	Won
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in Home Runs?	Yes	$8	9.0¢	Lost
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	$15	72.0¢	Lost
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?	Yes	$115	36.2¢	Lost
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup?	Yes	$10	6.4¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$15	80.0¢	Won
Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year?	Yes	$5	2.1¢	Lost
Trudeau resigns by Friday?	No	$72	88.9¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$10	76.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$54	89.0¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?	No	$37	85.0¢	Won
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy?	No	$100	42.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Won

India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Won
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$31 @ 20.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Won
No$20 @ 84.0¢
French election called by October 10?Won
No$31 @ 84.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$40 @ 74.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?Won
No$60 @ 81.6¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?Lost
90k$20 @ 29.4¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?Won
Yes$40 @ 79.2¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$9 @ 79.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$20 @ 51.0¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak DjokovicWon
Djokovic$22 @ 69.0¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$19 @ 88.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. SterlingWon
Sterling $20 @ 77.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$60 @ 88.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Lost
No$15 @ 33.0¢
California redistricting referendum passes?Won
Yes$20 @ 88.0¢
Yoon arrested by Friday?Lost
Yes$20 @ 38.6¢
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?Won
Yes$18 @ 56.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$39 @ 62.9¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?Won
No$20 @ 89.9¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Won
No$40 @ 61.5¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.9% on May 2?Lost
Yes$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
No$20 @ 88.0¢
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?Lost
Yes$12 @ 18.3¢
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?Won
No$20 @ 85.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$26 @ 54.0¢
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik SinnerLost
Sinner$40 @ 90.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28?Won
Yes$40 @ 69.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15?Lost
No$15 @ 23.0¢
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m?Won
No$20 @ 65.8¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?Won
No$30 @ 74.0¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?Won
No$30 @ 79.0¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?Won
Yes$22 @ 32.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?Won
No$22 @ 89.8¢
Thunder vs. NuggetsLost
Thunder$12 @ 61.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?Lost
No$12 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?Won
Yes$21 @ 69.0¢
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in Home Runs?Lost
Yes$8 @ 9.0¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Lost
No$15 @ 72.0¢
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?Lost
Yes$115 @ 36.2¢
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$15 @ 80.0¢
Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.1¢
Trudeau resigns by Friday?Won
No$72 @ 88.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 76.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$54 @ 89.0¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Won
No$37 @ 85.0¢
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy?Won
No$100 @ 42.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4?Won
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$2.1k	95.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$500	95.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$404	92.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$299	97.3¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$218	90.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$49	95.6¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$20	45.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$15	56.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	No	$13	79.0¢
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$10	66.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$5	59.0¢
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?	Sports	Yes	$2	70.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	62.0¢

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$2.1k @ 95.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$500 @ 95.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$404 @ 92.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$299 @ 97.3¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$218 @ 90.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$49 @ 95.6¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$20 @ 45.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$15 @ 56.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
No$13 @ 79.0¢
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$10 @ 66.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$5 @ 59.0¢
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?Sports
Yes$2 @ 70.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 62.0¢