← Smart money
0x254e…e722
ProfitableEdge
+63.2pp
ROI
+144%
Win rate
95% @ 31.5¢
Brier
0.513
Resolved
188
Avg size
$113
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 60% (3/5) | +39% | 5 |
| Politics | 75% (3/4) | +197% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (1/2) | -18% | 2 |
- Other5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +39%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +197%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -18%
Track record
64% hit · 7/11| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | No | $4.9k | 98.7¢ | Won |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | No | $2.7k | 45.9¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $10 | 21.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | $497 | 29.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $5.0k | 18.7¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $8 | 8.0¢ | Won |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | $505 | 64.0¢ | Won |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | Yes | $1.1k | 23.0¢ | Lost |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | Yes | $9.1k | 60.4¢ | Won |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | No | $1.2k | 34.4¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | Yes | $1.2k | 77.7¢ | Lost |
- No$4.9k @ 98.7¢
- No$2.7k @ 45.9¢
- Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
- Yes$497 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$5.0k @ 18.7¢
- Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$505 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 23.0¢
- Yes$9.1k @ 60.4¢
- No$1.2k @ 34.4¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 77.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Politics | No | $22.3k | 99.3¢ |
- No$22.3k @ 99.3¢