0x2478…2e62

Specialization by sphere

• Other541 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (261/541)

  ROI

  +14%

• Politics43 bets

  Hit rate

  23% (10/43)

  ROI

  -26%

• Economy10 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (6/10)

  ROI

  +112%

• Geopolitics7 bets

  Hit rate

  14% (1/7)

  ROI

  -85%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Business3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +58%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +27%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +69%

• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Won
  Yes$536 @ 89.3¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Won
  Yes$337 @ 70.8¢
• Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Won
  No$13 @ 20.0¢
• Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Lost
  Yes$116 @ 57.4¢
• Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
  No$82 @ 41.2¢
• India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Won
  No$872 @ 73.0¢
• Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?Won
  Rajasthan Royals$9 @ 48.0¢
• 1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?Won
  Yes$1.2k @ 78.4¢
• Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?Won
  No$420 @ 86.9¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$3 @ 82.0¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
• Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?Won
  No$53 @ 88.0¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
  No$527 @ 51.9¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 15.0¢
• Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Won
  Yes$44 @ 89.0¢
• Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Who wins the toss?Lost
  Delhi Capitals$240 @ 48.0¢
• Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Who wins the toss?Won
  Kolkata Knight Riders$599 @ 47.8¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$150 @ 58.2¢
• Trump x Xi talk before July?Lost
  No$323 @ 31.6¢
• TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
  Yes$182 @ 19.3¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 15.0¢
• Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in February?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 22.0¢
• Next French confidence vote passes?Lost
  Yes$88 @ 8.8¢
• Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers HyderabadWon
  Sunrisers Hyderabad$376 @ 47.0¢
• Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
  Yes$134 @ 26.8¢
• Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?Lost
  No$81 @ 27.0¢
• Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?Won
  Yes$17 @ 61.0¢
• Will Solana reach $275 in November?Won
  No$23 @ 46.0¢
• Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
  No$107 @ 89.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Lost
  Yes$576 @ 14.5¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Won
  Yes$55 @ 30.5¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
  Yes$60 @ 15.0¢
• Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?Lost
  No$61 @ 55.0¢
• Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 30?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
• 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
  No$652 @ 81.5¢
• US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
  No$989 @ 28.3¢
• Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Lost
  Yes$311 @ 72.3¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
  Yes$900 @ 22.5¢
• Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?Won
  Yes$110 @ 55.0¢
• Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 12?Won
  Yes$280 @ 80.0¢
• Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?Lost
  Yes$42 @ 21.0¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$240 @ 12.0¢
• India strike on Pakistan before August?Won
  No$719 @ 83.9¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Won
  Yes$416 @ 15.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.5k @ 24.8¢
• Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Lost
  Yes$260 @ 19.3¢
• No change in Bank of England's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
  Yes$90 @ 18.0¢
• Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?Won
  No$6 @ 60.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
  No$213 @ 85.2¢

Current positions

• US recession by end of 2026?Economy
  No$1.2k @ 82.3¢
• Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Economy
  Yes$662 @ 30.2¢
• Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Economy
  No$544 @ 35.9¢
• Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Economy
  Yes$431 @ 69.2¢
• Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Economy
  No$304 @ 67.3¢
• Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
  Yes$290 @ 27.2¢
• No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
  No$267 @ 29.4¢
• Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
  Yes$194 @ 38.7¢
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$164 @ 66.9¢
• No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$123 @ 69.0¢
• Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
  No$105 @ 77.0¢
• Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
  No$45 @ 37.2¢
• Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Economy
  Yes$40 @ 33.6¢
• Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Economy
  Yes$2 @ 0.4¢