0x215a…254c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.2pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

29% @ 26.3¢

Brier

0.130

Resolved

2243

Avg size

$115

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	32% (106/330)	+16%	330
Other	32% (65/204)	+29%	204
Tech	33% (23/70)	-17%	70
Geopolitics	45% (26/58)	+15%	58
Culture	19% (8/43)	+18%	43
Economy	36% (4/11)	+49%	11
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Politics330 bets
Hit rate
32% (106/330)
ROI
+16%
Other204 bets
Hit rate
32% (65/204)
ROI
+29%
Tech70 bets
Hit rate
33% (23/70)
ROI
-17%
Geopolitics58 bets
Hit rate
45% (26/58)
ROI
+15%
Culture43 bets
Hit rate
19% (8/43)
ROI
+18%
Economy11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+49%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 232/718

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	$109	92.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	$35	5.5¢	Lost
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	$110	42.2¢	Lost
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	Yes	$273	31.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$47	4.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	$368	2.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	$627	5.9¢	Lost
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	$229	15.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$31	7.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$548	51.2¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$193	10.2¢	Lost
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?	Yes	$13	21.0¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$429	30.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$64	15.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$531	37.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$353	30.6¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	No	$44	22.7¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$8	4.6¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$3	2.7¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$137	3.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$81	21.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	$10	2.3¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	$16	24.0¢	Lost
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$134	23.0¢	Lost
Paris curfew by October 24?	No	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$175	11.9¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$108	50.0¢	Won
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	No	$428	34.9¢	Lost
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	Yes	$377	43.0¢	Won
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?	No	$150	75.0¢	Won
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$57	16.0¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$64	6.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$91	10.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	$65	7.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	$486	24.5¢	Lost
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	Yes	$41	17.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$606	19.5¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$5	4.8¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	$52	11.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	$534	47.1¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	No	$70	18.8¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$61	38.0¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Will Delegado André David win the most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election?	Yes	$54	52.0¢	Lost
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$176	22.1¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$511	63.0¢	Won

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Won
Yes$109 @ 92.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 5.5¢
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Lost
No$110 @ 42.2¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Lost
Yes$273 @ 31.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$47 @ 4.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Won
No$368 @ 2.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$627 @ 5.9¢
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?Lost
No$229 @ 15.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$31 @ 7.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$548 @ 51.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$193 @ 10.2¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Won
Yes$13 @ 21.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$429 @ 30.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$64 @ 15.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$531 @ 37.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$353 @ 30.6¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
No$44 @ 22.7¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$8 @ 4.6¢
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.7¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$137 @ 3.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$81 @ 21.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.3¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 24.0¢
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$134 @ 23.0¢
Paris curfew by October 24?Lost
No$1 @ 8.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$175 @ 11.9¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$108 @ 50.0¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Lost
No$428 @ 34.9¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Won
Yes$377 @ 43.0¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?Won
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$57 @ 16.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$64 @ 6.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$91 @ 10.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?Won
No$65 @ 7.1¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$486 @ 24.5¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Lost
Yes$41 @ 17.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$606 @ 19.5¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.8¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Lost
Yes$52 @ 11.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Won
Yes$534 @ 47.1¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$70 @ 18.8¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Won
Yes$61 @ 38.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Will Delegado André David win the most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election?Lost
Yes$54 @ 52.0¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$176 @ 22.1¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$511 @ 63.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$10.2k	68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.8k	75.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$3.6k	53.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	38.5¢
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	33.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$2.3k	77.3¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$1.8k	24.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	65.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	54.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	80.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	47.6¢
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Politics	No	$1.1k	66.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$967	55.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$961	49.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$892	65.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$857	30.0¢
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$786	86.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$757	93.8¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$753	29.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$648	56.5¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$628	96.3¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Politics	No	$609	67.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$584	70.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?	Politics	Yes	$582	66.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$579	62.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$577	58.4¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$548	40.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$521	30.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$497	59.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$466	59.3¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$10.2k @ 68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
No$4.8k @ 75.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$3.6k @ 53.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 38.5¢
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 33.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$2.3k @ 77.3¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$1.8k @ 24.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 65.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 54.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 80.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 47.6¢
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Politics
No$1.1k @ 66.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$967 @ 55.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$961 @ 49.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$892 @ 65.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Politics
Yes$857 @ 30.0¢
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?Geopolitics
No$786 @ 86.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$757 @ 93.8¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$753 @ 29.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$648 @ 56.5¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$628 @ 96.3¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Politics
No$609 @ 67.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$584 @ 70.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?Politics
Yes$582 @ 66.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$579 @ 62.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$577 @ 58.4¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$548 @ 40.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$521 @ 30.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$497 @ 59.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$466 @ 59.3¢