0x15d1…ec0f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x15d1e0476012dc9ae28060da02ddfc3129a6ec0f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.2pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

60% @ 44.8¢

Brier

0.182

Resolved

145

Avg size

$51

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	64% (30/47)	+24%	47
Geopolitics	59% (10/17)	+60%	17
Culture	50% (5/10)	-23%	10
Other	50% (4/8)	+22%	8
Tech	33% (2/6)	-39%	6
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-71%	3
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics47 bets
Hit rate
64% (30/47)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
+60%
Culture10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
-23%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+22%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-39%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-71%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

57% hit · 52/92

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	$54	57.0¢	Won
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 13?	No	$90	28.3¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	$23	60.0¢	Lost
Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$254	45.0¢	Won
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$214	52.6¢	Won
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	No	$100	59.0¢	Won
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Nikol Pashinyan in Turkmenistan?	No	$125	89.7¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$75	65.0¢	Won
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	$50	49.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Letitia James by September 30, 2026?	No	$9	45.0¢	Won
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?	Yes	$134	31.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$51	48.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$200	74.3¢	Won
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	$76	58.7¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams?	No	$52	38.0¢	Won
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$50	13.0¢	Lost
Will "Patient Zero" hit 35m first week streams?	No	$52	7.0¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?	No	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$55	44.5¢	Won
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan?	Yes	$95	86.9¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 70m first week streams?	Yes	$73	10.2¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Nicki Minaj in September?	No	$13	77.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$31	10.6¢	Lost
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?	Yes	$174	53.9¢	Lost
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	$66	47.1¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?	No	$36	22.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$100	74.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	No	$102	76.0¢	Lost
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$160	43.5¢	Won
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 25, 2026?	No	$100	87.0¢	Won
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$72	30.0¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	$101	71.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Melania" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$102	55.0¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$30	42.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?	Yes	$40	32.1¢	Lost
Spain snap election called by November 30?	Yes	$132	59.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?	No	$88	21.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$116	75.6¢	Won
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	No	$20	39.6¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	$73	37.5¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$82	34.7¢	Lost
Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$175	18.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$475	47.4¢	Won
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?	No	$200	61.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Boeing" in September?	No	$51	48.0¢	Won
Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?	Yes	$51	41.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?	Yes	$30	77.0¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$95	7.9¢	Lost
Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams?	Yes	$10	2.9¢	Lost

Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?Won
Yes$54 @ 57.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 13?Lost
No$90 @ 28.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Lost
No$23 @ 60.0¢
Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?Won
Yes$254 @ 45.0¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?Won
Yes$214 @ 52.6¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Won
No$100 @ 59.0¢
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Nikol Pashinyan in Turkmenistan?Won
No$125 @ 89.7¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$75 @ 65.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
Yes$50 @ 49.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Letitia James by September 30, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?Lost
Yes$134 @ 31.2¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$51 @ 48.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$200 @ 74.3¢
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?Won
Yes$76 @ 58.7¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams?Won
No$52 @ 38.0¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$50 @ 13.0¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 35m first week streams?Lost
No$52 @ 7.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?Lost
No$3 @ 5.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?Won
Yes$55 @ 44.5¢
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan?Won
Yes$95 @ 86.9¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 70m first week streams?Lost
Yes$73 @ 10.2¢
Will Trump praise Nicki Minaj in September?Won
No$13 @ 77.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$31 @ 10.6¢
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$174 @ 53.9¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$66 @ 47.1¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?Lost
No$36 @ 22.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$100 @ 74.0¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$102 @ 76.0¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$160 @ 43.5¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 25, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 87.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$72 @ 30.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Won
Yes$101 @ 71.0¢
Will Trump say "Melania" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Won
Yes$102 @ 55.0¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$30 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?Lost
Yes$40 @ 32.1¢
Spain snap election called by November 30?Won
Yes$132 @ 59.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$88 @ 21.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$116 @ 75.6¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 39.6¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?Won
Yes$73 @ 37.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$82 @ 34.7¢
Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$175 @ 18.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$475 @ 47.4¢
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?Won
No$200 @ 61.4¢
Will Trump say "Boeing" in September?Won
No$51 @ 48.0¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?Won
Yes$51 @ 41.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?Lost
Yes$30 @ 77.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$95 @ 7.9¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$300	29.0¢
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Culture	Yes	$243	37.0¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Politics	No	$150	49.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$150	79.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$150	77.7¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$150	31.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14?	Geopolitics	No	$142	58.2¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?	Politics	Yes	$140	49.8¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$118	48.7¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$100	51.6¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$100	64.2¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	No	$100	74.0¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	Politics	No	$100	40.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	Yes	$100	57.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?	Geopolitics	No	$100	18.9¢
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$85	54.4¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?	Sports	Rodri	$67	62.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	Tech	No	$67	58.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$65	47.1¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Politics	No	$58	58.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$55	37.5¢
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Tech	Yes	$54	57.0¢
Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?	Politics	No	$50	39.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Economy	No	$50	54.0¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Sports	Yamal	$50	46.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?	Geopolitics	No	$50	23.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elizabeth Warren by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$45	56.3¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$41	83.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 24?	Geopolitics	Yes	$33	50.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	Crypto	No	$30	12.3¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$300 @ 29.0¢
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Culture
Yes$243 @ 37.0¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Politics
No$150 @ 49.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$150 @ 79.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$150 @ 77.7¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?Crypto
No$150 @ 31.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14?Geopolitics
No$142 @ 58.2¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?Politics
Yes$140 @ 49.8¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$118 @ 48.7¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 51.6¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$100 @ 64.2¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
No$100 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?Politics
No$100 @ 40.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
Yes$100 @ 57.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 18.9¢
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$85 @ 54.4¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?Sports
Rodri$67 @ 62.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?Tech
No$67 @ 58.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$65 @ 47.1¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?Politics
No$58 @ 58.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$55 @ 37.5¢
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?Tech
Yes$54 @ 57.0¢
Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Politics
No$50 @ 39.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Economy
No$50 @ 54.0¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Sports
Yamal$50 @ 46.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 23.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elizabeth Warren by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 56.3¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$41 @ 83.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 24?Geopolitics
Yes$33 @ 50.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?Crypto
No$30 @ 12.3¢