0x154c…658e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x154ca10dfee317dcfb9337788db7da858cba658e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.7pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

56% @ 53.5¢

Brier

0.233

Resolved

2780

Avg size

$129

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	52% (450/862)	+12%	862
Other	52% (308/590)	+1%	590
Science	71% (52/73)	+12%	73
Politics	71% (17/24)	-22%	24
Economy	71% (5/7)	+35%	7
Culture	25% (1/4)	-83%	4
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+16%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+82%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+23%	1

Sports862 bets
Hit rate
52% (450/862)
ROI
+12%
Other590 bets
Hit rate
52% (308/590)
ROI
+1%
Science73 bets
Hit rate
71% (52/73)
ROI
+12%
Politics24 bets
Hit rate
71% (17/24)
ROI
-22%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+35%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-83%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+16%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+82%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%

Track record

54% hit · 837/1564

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?	No	$1	51.0¢	Won
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Xipto Esports - Game 2 Winner	Xipto Esports	$199	74.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 12 2026?	No	$900	88.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 12 2026?	No	$91	92.6¢	Won
Maia: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Luka Mikrut	Alejo Sanchez Quilez	$2.5k	53.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	No	$132	71.8¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	$86	67.9¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	$159	60.5¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	No	$255	75.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	$29	76.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	$499	83.8¢	Won
Rams vs. Eagles	Rams	$2.5k	63.0¢	Won
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5	Over	$121	38.4¢	Won
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5	Under	$131	49.2¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner	megoshort	$154	51.9¢	Lost
Titans vs. Giants	Titans	$3	37.0¢	Lost
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner	LYON	$572	59.0¢	Won
Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 51.5	Under	$16	37.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 19?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Lost
Michigan vs. Minnesota	Minnesota	$147	39.0¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	$42	77.5¢	Lost
Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5	Under	$15	48.0¢	Lost
Spread: 49ers (-5.5)	49ers	$150	36.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Spirit	$562	40.9¢	Won
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5	Over	$2	43.0¢	Won
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner	LOS	$523	74.9¢	Lost
Spread: Texas Tech (-2.5)	Colorado	$100	36.7¢	Lost
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner	HANJIN BRION	$1.3k	68.8¢	Won
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)	Buccaneers	$3	40.0¢	Won
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5	Over	$146	35.8¢	Won
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5	Under	$9	37.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner	magic	$44	36.0¢	Won
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina: O/U 51.5	Over	$9	51.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 22?	No	$43	84.5¢	Lost
Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?	No	$39	71.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	GamerLegion	$1.5k	70.4¢	Won
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)	Chiefs	$894	52.0¢	Lost
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	HANJIN BRION	$2.9k	57.8¢	Lost
Spread: Colts (-16.5)	Colts	$110	37.0¢	Won
Spread: Colts (-16.5)	Commanders	$78	47.0¢	Lost
Spread: Bills (-4.5)	Bills	$10	43.1¢	Lost
Spread: Bills (-4.5)	Patriots	$78	52.7¢	Won
Spread: Falcons (-6.5)	Falcons	$10	43.0¢	Lost
Spread: Falcons (-6.5)	Ravens	$91	47.0¢	Won
Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State: O/U 49.5	Under	$51	44.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	$242	66.0¢	Won
Spread: Giants (-1.5)	Cardinals	$485	57.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	$395	36.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Two Move vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner	Two Move	$89	71.2¢	Lost
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5	Over	$68	57.0¢	Won

Will Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?Won
No$1 @ 51.0¢
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Xipto Esports - Game 2 WinnerWon
Xipto Esports$199 @ 74.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 12 2026?Won
No$900 @ 88.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 12 2026?Won
No$91 @ 92.6¢
Maia: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Luka MikrutWon
Alejo Sanchez Quilez$2.5k @ 53.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Won
No$132 @ 71.8¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?Won
No$86 @ 67.9¢
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?Won
No$159 @ 60.5¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?Won
No$255 @ 75.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?Lost
No$29 @ 76.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?Won
Yes$499 @ 83.8¢
Rams vs. EaglesWon
Rams$2.5k @ 63.0¢
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5Won
Over$121 @ 38.4¢
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5Lost
Under$131 @ 49.2¢
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort - Map 1 WinnerLost
megoshort$154 @ 51.9¢
Titans vs. GiantsLost
Titans$3 @ 37.0¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 WinnerWon
LYON$572 @ 59.0¢
Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 51.5Lost
Under$16 @ 37.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 19?Lost
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Michigan vs. MinnesotaWon
Minnesota$147 @ 39.0¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$42 @ 77.5¢
Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Lost
Under$15 @ 48.0¢
Spread: 49ers (-5.5)Won
49ers$150 @ 36.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsWon
Team Spirit$562 @ 40.9¢
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Won
Over$2 @ 43.0¢
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 3 WinnerLost
LOS$523 @ 74.9¢
Spread: Texas Tech (-2.5)Lost
Colorado$100 @ 36.7¢
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 WinnerWon
HANJIN BRION$1.3k @ 68.8¢
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Won
Buccaneers$3 @ 40.0¢
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Won
Over$146 @ 35.8¢
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Lost
Under$9 @ 37.0¢
Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR - Map 2 WinnerWon
magic$44 @ 36.0¢
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina: O/U 51.5Won
Over$9 @ 51.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 22?Lost
No$43 @ 84.5¢
Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?Lost
No$39 @ 71.1¢
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerWon
GamerLegion$1.5k @ 70.4¢
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Lost
Chiefs$894 @ 52.0¢
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerLost
HANJIN BRION$2.9k @ 57.8¢
Spread: Colts (-16.5)Won
Colts$110 @ 37.0¢
Spread: Colts (-16.5)Lost
Commanders$78 @ 47.0¢
Spread: Bills (-4.5)Lost
Bills$10 @ 43.1¢
Spread: Bills (-4.5)Won
Patriots$78 @ 52.7¢
Spread: Falcons (-6.5)Lost
Falcons$10 @ 43.0¢
Spread: Falcons (-6.5)Won
Ravens$91 @ 47.0¢
Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State: O/U 49.5Lost
Under$51 @ 44.0¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerWon
MOUZ$242 @ 66.0¢
Spread: Giants (-1.5)Lost
Cardinals$485 @ 57.1¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerLost
Aurora$395 @ 36.0¢
Dota 2: Two Move vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerLost
Two Move$89 @ 71.2¢
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Won
Over$68 @ 57.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	79.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$715	63.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	Other	No	$326	90.9¢
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Politics	No	$300	95.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$300	90.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	Other	No	$300	90.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$240	63.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Other	No	$231	83.4¢
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Xipto Esports - Game 2 Winner	Sports	Xipto Esports	$199	74.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 25%-30%?	Politics	No	$175	81.9¢
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$156	63.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$141	53.0¢
Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$141	85.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 55%-60%?	Politics	No	$138	77.8¢
Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$135	82.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?	Politics	No	$134	90.0¢
Will over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$134	82.9¢
Will Jenee Fleenor (fiddle) win Musician of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	Culture	No	$126	84.0¢
Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$125	84.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-05 House election by 15%-20%?	Politics	No	$114	61.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 50%-55%?	Politics	No	$104	84.0¢
Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$97	80.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 45%-50%?	Politics	No	$86	82.0¢
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$83	86.0¢
Will “Gary” by Stephen Wilson Jr. win Song of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	Culture	No	$83	89.0¢
Will over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$82	82.2¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Tech	No	$77	81.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Politics	No	$70	71.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 6%-9%?	Politics	No	$70	77.1¢
Will over 66 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$67	82.7¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 79.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$715 @ 63.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?Other
No$326 @ 90.9¢
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Politics
No$300 @ 95.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$300 @ 90.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?Other
No$300 @ 90.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$240 @ 63.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Other
No$231 @ 83.4¢
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Xipto Esports - Game 2 WinnerSports
Xipto Esports$199 @ 74.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 25%-30%?Politics
No$175 @ 81.9¢
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
No$156 @ 63.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$141 @ 53.0¢
Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
No$141 @ 85.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 55%-60%?Politics
No$138 @ 77.8¢
Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
No$135 @ 82.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?Politics
No$134 @ 90.0¢
Will over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
No$134 @ 82.9¢
Will Jenee Fleenor (fiddle) win Musician of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?Culture
No$126 @ 84.0¢
Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
No$125 @ 84.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-05 House election by 15%-20%?Politics
No$114 @ 61.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 50%-55%?Politics
No$104 @ 84.0¢
Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$97 @ 80.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 45%-50%?Politics
No$86 @ 82.0¢
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
No$83 @ 86.0¢
Will “Gary” by Stephen Wilson Jr. win Song of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?Culture
No$83 @ 89.0¢
Will over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
No$82 @ 82.2¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Tech
No$77 @ 81.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-02 House election by 15%-20%?Politics
No$70 @ 71.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 6%-9%?Politics
No$70 @ 77.1¢
Will over 66 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
No$67 @ 82.7¢