0x0dca…e890

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0dca40f5528b140629caf3dbfd1b34b499d1e890
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.8pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

35% @ 29.4¢

Brier

0.048

Resolved

1093

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (62/141)	+20%	141
Politics	50% (20/40)	+24%	40
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+23%	5

Other141 bets
Hit rate
44% (62/141)
ROI
+20%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
50% (20/40)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+23%

Track record

47% hit · 87/186

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$6	72.9¢	Won
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?	No	$19	86.1¢	Won
Will "One Battle After Another" win 10 or more awards at the Oscars?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?	Yes	$0	4.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	No	$13	86.3¢	Won
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out in 2025?	No	$4	83.0¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$10	58.8¢	Won
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?	No	$5	85.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	$5	89.0¢	Won
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$8	80.7¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$4	73.0¢	Won
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	4.9¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$27	73.4¢	Won
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?	Yes	$20	46.5¢	Lost
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?	No	$48	68.9¢	Won
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?	No	$5	75.0¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$4	68.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?	No	$5	85.0¢	Won
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	68.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?	No	$59	86.0¢	Won
Will "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?	No	$3	56.0¢	Lost
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?	No	$6	76.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?	Yes	$8	77.0¢	Lost

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$6 @ 72.9¢
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?Won
No$19 @ 86.1¢
Will "One Battle After Another" win 10 or more awards at the Oscars?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
No$13 @ 86.3¢
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 83.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$10 @ 58.8¢
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?Won
No$5 @ 85.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 89.0¢
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$8 @ 80.7¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 73.0¢
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 73.4¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 46.5¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?Won
No$48 @ 68.9¢
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?Won
No$5 @ 75.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 68.0¢
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 85.0¢
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 68.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?Won
No$59 @ 86.0¢
Will "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Lost
No$3 @ 56.0¢
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?Won
No$6 @ 76.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 77.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$384	91.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$88	90.4¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	No	$75	89.6¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$32	93.8¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$26	95.1¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$22	89.2¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Politics	No	$17	87.8¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$11	91.0¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$7	95.8¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	Geopolitics	No	$6	97.2¢
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$6	93.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	80.0¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$4	73.0¢
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$4	94.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2	20.0¢
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$0	6.4¢

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
No$384 @ 91.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
No$88 @ 90.4¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
No$75 @ 89.6¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
Yes$32 @ 93.8¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
No$26 @ 95.1¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$22 @ 89.2¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?Politics
No$17 @ 87.8¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$11 @ 91.0¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?Politics
No$7 @ 95.8¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?Geopolitics
No$6 @ 97.2¢
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 93.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$4 @ 94.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$0 @ 6.4¢