0x0c4f…0f33

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0c4f5b1295f39cf505679209a22adbafe61c0f33
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.7pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

57% @ 44.2¢

Brier

0.208

Resolved

2527

Avg size

$74

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (87/155)	+37%	155
Politics	67% (10/15)	-23%	15
Geopolitics	100% (6/6)	+32%	6
Science	100% (1/1)	+57%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+32%	1

Other155 bets
Hit rate
56% (87/155)
ROI
+37%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
67% (10/15)
ROI
-23%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+32%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+57%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+32%

Track record

59% hit · 105/178

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	FUT Esports	$290	58.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	Heroic	$6.1k	31.8¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$74	5.3¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	$264	88.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	Yes	$25	33.3¢	Won
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	Aurora Gaming	$298	37.3¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	TheMongolz	$410	50.7¢	Won
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	$459	71.8¢	Won
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?	No	$4	6.0¢	Lost
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?	Yes	$924	83.3¢	Won
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	No	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	No	$54	27.0¢	Lost
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?	No	$201	85.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	Astralis	$240	48.0¢	Won
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-06?	Yes	$316	52.7¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?	No	$113	88.7¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$260	86.7¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	68.7¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$300	24.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage	Team Nemesis	$115	23.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$4	45.4¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$154	77.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?	Yes	$12	19.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	Yes	$33	66.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	Monte	$2.9k	44.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$1.1k	52.4¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$250	21.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?	Yes	$71	47.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$210	21.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?	No	$131	72.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$894	55.7¢	Lost
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	$60	85.5¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$89	56.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?	No	$14	16.0¢	Lost
BNP Paribas Open: Dalma Galfi vs Anna Blinkova	Dalma Galfi	$57	56.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?	No	$56	88.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	Yes	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$659	65.3¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$3.0k	27.1¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$57.6k	51.5¢	Won
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?	No	$129	77.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	No	$560	65.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	Yes	$285	87.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$445	44.5¢	Won
Thionville: Hugo Gaston vs Moise Kouame	Hugo Gaston	$240	40.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	No	$41	83.0¢	Lost

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Won
FUT Esports$290 @ 58.0¢
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Lost
Heroic$6.1k @ 31.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$74 @ 5.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?Won
No$264 @ 88.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Won
Yes$25 @ 33.3¢
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Lost
Aurora Gaming$298 @ 37.3¢
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Won
TheMongolz$410 @ 50.7¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Won
Yes$459 @ 71.8¢
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?Lost
No$4 @ 6.0¢
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?Won
Yes$924 @ 83.3¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Won
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Lost
No$54 @ 27.0¢
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?Won
No$201 @ 85.0¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group AWon
Astralis$240 @ 48.0¢
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-06?Won
Yes$316 @ 52.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?Won
No$113 @ 88.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$260 @ 86.7¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 68.7¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$300 @ 24.0¢
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageLost
Team Nemesis$115 @ 23.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 45.4¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$154 @ 77.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 19.0¢
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?Lost
Yes$33 @ 66.0¢
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Lost
Monte$2.9k @ 44.7¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 52.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$250 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?Won
Yes$71 @ 47.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$210 @ 21.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
No$50 @ 25.0¢
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?Lost
No$131 @ 72.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$894 @ 55.7¢
US strike on Mexico by January 31?Won
No$60 @ 85.5¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 56.0¢
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Lost
No$14 @ 16.0¢
BNP Paribas Open: Dalma Galfi vs Anna BlinkovaLost
Dalma Galfi$57 @ 56.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Won
No$56 @ 88.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$659 @ 65.3¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$3.0k @ 27.1¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$57.6k @ 51.5¢
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?Won
No$129 @ 77.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Won
No$560 @ 65.9¢
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Won
Yes$285 @ 87.9¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$445 @ 44.5¢
Thionville: Hugo Gaston vs Moise KouameWon
Hugo Gaston$240 @ 40.0¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?Lost
No$41 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	42.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$245	50.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	No	$26	78.7¢
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$15	88.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 42.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$245 @ 50.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
No$26 @ 78.7¢
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 88.0¢