0x0bb0…5a3a

Specialization by sphere

• Politics17 bets

  Hit rate

  65% (11/17)

  ROI

  +17%

• Other11 bets

  Hit rate

  91% (10/11)

  ROI

  +38%

• Geopolitics8 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (8/8)

  ROI

  +40%

• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 59.0¢
• Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$50 @ 65.0¢
• Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$80 @ 75.9¢
• Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
  Yes$150 @ 67.0¢
• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
  No$100 @ 73.2¢
• Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Won
  No$213 @ 63.9¢
• Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
  No$281 @ 88.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
  Yes$300 @ 88.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
  No$100 @ 72.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
• Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?Won
  No$101 @ 66.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$50 @ 48.7¢
• Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?Won
  No$143 @ 56.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Won
  No$284 @ 89.7¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
  Yes$60 @ 56.0¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
• Will Trump meet with Mette Frederiksen by September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$101 @ 64.7¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$72 @ 2.2¢
• Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?Won
  Yes$100 @ 69.4¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$69 @ 72.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$259 @ 80.2¢
• Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Won
  No$50 @ 53.2¢
• Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?Won
  Yes$55 @ 43.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$26 @ 18.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
  No$107 @ 63.0¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 13, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 80.0¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
• Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$101 @ 71.7¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Won
  No$250 @ 80.7¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
  Yes$100 @ 72.0¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 15, 2026?Won
  No$46 @ 45.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$240 @ 85.0¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
  No$100 @ 58.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
  No$30 @ 16.8¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Won
  No$129 @ 66.0¢
• Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?Lost
  No$221 @ 78.0¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$300 @ 71.2¢
• Will Ethiopia target Eritrea by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$100 @ 76.0¢
• Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Politics
  Yes$100 @ 50.8¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
  Yes$100 @ 76.0¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$100 @ 58.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$100 @ 63.0¢
• Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Politics
  No$50 @ 40.1¢