0xb523…4b8f

Профи

Эдж

+15.3pp

ROI

+19%

Доля побед

35% @ 19.3¢

Brier

0.193

Сделок

523

Ср. размер

$19

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	33% (27/83)	+21%	83
Технологии	50% (5/10)	+34%	10
Политика	50% (1/2)	-46%	2
Экономика	100% (1/1)	+87%	1
Крипто	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other83 ставки
Попадания
33% (27/83)
ROI
+21%
Технологии10 ставки
Попадания
50% (5/10)
ROI
+34%
Политика2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
-46%
Экономика1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+87%
Крипто1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

35% попаданий · 34/97

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	No	$93	74.8¢	Победа
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026?	Yes	$3	38.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on February 6, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.9¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$5	35.5¢	Победа
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$15	18.3¢	Поражение
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	85.0¢	Победа
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?	Yes	$29	62.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, 2026?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?	Yes	$35	7.3¢	Победа
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	Yes	$40	10.0¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$187	37.4¢	Поражение
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Победа
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?	No	$0	0.7¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on February 20, 2026?	Yes	$75	16.2¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$148	42.7¢	Победа
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Поражение
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	Yes	$126	42.0¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$132	39.0¢	Поражение
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Поражение
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	No	$24	12.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?	No	$98	30.5¢	Победа
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.5 on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$6	2.4¢	Поражение
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$4	2.9¢	Поражение
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $153?	No	$5	12.6¢	Победа
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$5	13.0¢	Победа
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2?	No	$10	5.0¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	63.0¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	$750	75.0¢	Победа
Will Apple dip to $232 in February?	No	$67	67.0¢	Победа
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$24	8.1¢	Поражение
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	Yes	$292	85.9¢	Победа
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on February 13, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	$334	23.6¢	Победа
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Поражение
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	Yes	$40	40.0¢	Победа
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 13, 2026?	Yes	$9	13.3¢	Победа
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$14	6.1¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 13, 2026?	Yes	$62	10.9¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$65	9.8¢	Поражение
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$176	35.1¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$280	40.0¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$248	4.8¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?	Yes	$74	36.9¢	Победа
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?	Yes	$39	84.5¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	$80	80.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?	No	$213	52.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?	Yes	$243	46.2¢	Победа
Will Addison Rae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Поражение

Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?Победа
No$93 @ 74.8¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on February 6, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Победа
No$5 @ 35.5¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Поражение
No$15 @ 18.3¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?Поражение
Yes$29 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, 2026?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 24, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?Победа
Yes$35 @ 7.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 10.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Поражение
Yes$187 @ 37.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?Победа
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Поражение
No$0 @ 0.7¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on February 20, 2026?Поражение
Yes$75 @ 16.2¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on February 27, 2026?Победа
Yes$148 @ 42.7¢
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?Поражение
Yes$126 @ 42.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Поражение
Yes$132 @ 39.0¢
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Поражение
No$24 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?Победа
No$98 @ 30.5¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.5 on February 27, 2026?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 2.4¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 2.9¢
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $153?Победа
No$5 @ 12.6¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Победа
No$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2?Поражение
No$10 @ 5.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.0k @ 63.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Победа
Yes$750 @ 75.0¢
Will Apple dip to $232 in February?Победа
No$67 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 10, 2026?Поражение
Yes$24 @ 8.1¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Победа
Yes$292 @ 85.9¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on February 13, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Победа
No$334 @ 23.6¢
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?Победа
Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 13, 2026?Победа
Yes$9 @ 13.3¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 6.1¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 13, 2026?Поражение
Yes$62 @ 10.9¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 27, 2026?Поражение
Yes$65 @ 9.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$176 @ 35.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Поражение
No$280 @ 40.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Поражение
Yes$248 @ 4.8¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?Победа
Yes$74 @ 36.9¢
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?Победа
Yes$39 @ 84.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Поражение
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?Поражение
No$213 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?Победа
Yes$243 @ 46.2¢
Will Addison Rae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	Yes	$784	38.9¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Технологии	No	$209	27.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	Yes	$190	46.5¢
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Культура	Yes	$56	46.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	Yes	$52	26.0¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$36	67.4¢
Will The Romantic (Bruno Mars) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Культура	Yes	$35	6.7¢
Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Культура	Yes	$14	5.2¢
Will The Life of a Showgirl (Taylor Swift) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Культура	Yes	$9	8.7¢
Will The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Культура	Yes	$4	10.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Технологии	Yes	$0	9.0¢
Will Magdalena Bay win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Культура	Yes	$0	0.3¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
Yes$784 @ 38.9¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Технологии
No$209 @ 27.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
Yes$190 @ 46.5¢
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Культура
Yes$56 @ 46.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?Технологии
Yes$36 @ 67.4¢
Will The Romantic (Bruno Mars) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Культура
Yes$35 @ 6.7¢
Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Культура
Yes$14 @ 5.2¢
Will The Life of a Showgirl (Taylor Swift) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Культура
Yes$9 @ 8.7¢
Will The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Культура
Yes$4 @ 10.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?Технологии
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Will Magdalena Bay win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Культура
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢