0xfbd2…61f1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfbd2a02c1fb3ea1bc0ac1c1376ff82ed1a8361f1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

RentableFrancotirador

Ventaja

+6.8pp

ROI

+23%

Tasa de acierto

62% @ 55.4¢

Brier

0.221

Resueltas

538

Tamaño med.

Tendencia ROI

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Deportes	67% (85/127)	+22%	127
Other	60% (62/103)	-10%	103
Política	48% (15/31)	-35%	31
Tecnología	82% (14/17)	+58%	17
Geopolítica	63% (5/8)	+8%	8
Economía	67% (2/3)	-25%	3
Cripto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Deportes127 apuestas
Tasa acierto
67% (85/127)
ROI
+22%
Other103 apuestas
Tasa acierto
60% (62/103)
ROI
-10%
Política31 apuestas
Tasa acierto
48% (15/31)
ROI
-35%
Tecnología17 apuestas
Tasa acierto
82% (14/17)
ROI
+58%
Geopolítica8 apuestas
Tasa acierto
63% (5/8)
ROI
+8%
Economía3 apuestas
Tasa acierto
67% (2/3)
ROI
-25%
Cripto1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Historial

63% acierto · 183/290

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	82.6¢	Ganó
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Ganó
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Perdió
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky	Los Angeles Sparks	$3	45.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$2	84.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$2	42.3¢	Perdió
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	64.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$2	63.0¢	Ganó
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$1	61.0¢	Ganó
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	58.2¢	Ganó
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$2	59.0¢	Perdió
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	39.2¢	Perdió
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	59.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	No	$3	96.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Perdió
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	$2	94.0¢	Ganó
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	Yes	$3	92.0¢	Ganó
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$1	59.0¢	Ganó
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.1¢	Perdió
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$2	91.0¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Perdió
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Yes	$2	60.0¢	Ganó
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Colombia	$1	60.0¢	Perdió
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	74.0¢	Ganó
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Belgium	$2	52.0¢	Ganó
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	United States	$1	31.0¢	Perdió
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	51.0¢	Perdió
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	77.0¢	Ganó
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	No	$36	41.4¢	Perdió
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$15	46.3¢	Ganó
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	No	$47	54.0¢	Perdió
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$2	34.0¢	Ganó
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	No	$33	72.1¢	Ganó
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	74.0¢	Ganó
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Vici Gaming	$3	70.0¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$2	66.9¢	Ganó
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	$3	32.0¢	Perdió
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	No	$2	92.3¢	Ganó
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	98.8¢	Ganó
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	No	$2	85.0¢	Ganó
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$5	71.5¢	Ganó
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?	No	$2	95.9¢	Ganó
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner	LGD Gaming	$11	67.9¢	Perdió
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$5	61.0¢	Ganó
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	No	$2	92.0¢	Ganó
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	70.0¢	Perdió
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	No	$7	80.6¢	Ganó
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Perdió
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Perdió
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?	Yes	$2	86.0¢	Ganó

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Ganó
No$2 @ 82.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago SkyPerdió
Los Angeles Sparks$3 @ 45.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Ganó
No$2 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 42.3¢
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
No$2 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 58.2¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 59.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 39.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?Ganó
No$3 @ 96.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?Ganó
No$2 @ 94.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Ganó
Yes$3 @ 92.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Ganó
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?Perdió
Yes$3 @ 13.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Ganó
No$2 @ 91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 60.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvancePerdió
Colombia$1 @ 60.0¢
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Ganó
No$2 @ 74.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceGanó
Belgium$2 @ 52.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvancePerdió
United States$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
No$2 @ 51.0¢
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Ganó
Yes$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Perdió
No$36 @ 41.4¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Ganó
Yes$15 @ 46.3¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Perdió
No$47 @ 54.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 34.0¢
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Ganó
No$33 @ 72.1¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerGanó
Vici Gaming$3 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Ganó
No$2 @ 66.9¢
Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesPerdió
New York Yankees$3 @ 32.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?Ganó
No$2 @ 92.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Ganó
No$3 @ 98.8¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Ganó
No$2 @ 85.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Ganó
Yes$5 @ 71.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?Ganó
No$2 @ 95.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerPerdió
LGD Gaming$11 @ 67.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Ganó
No$5 @ 61.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Ganó
No$2 @ 92.0¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
No$1 @ 70.0¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Ganó
No$7 @ 80.6¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 86.0¢

Operaciones recientes

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Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Negocios	Yes	$13	34.6¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tecnología	Yes	$12	53.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Política	Yes	$10	76.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Política	No	$9	75.1¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Política	No	$8	88.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Negocios	No	$7	52.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolítica	No	$7	94.6¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$7	70.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Negocios	Yes	$6	73.5¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Política	No	$5	59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Política	Yes	$5	14.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tecnología	Yes	$4	6.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Política	No	$4	70.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolítica	No	$4	60.1¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	—	No	$3	87.0¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Deportes	No	$3	86.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3	77.4¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	—	No	$3	55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Política	No	$3	46.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Política	No	$2	88.0¢
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	—	No	$2	82.0¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Deportes	Yes	$2	78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Deportes	Yes	$2	73.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Política	No	$2	94.5¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?	—	No	$2	94.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tecnología	Yes	$2	23.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Deportes	No	$2	75.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Política	Yes	$2	32.0¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	—	Yes	$2	24.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolítica	Yes	$2	58.0¢

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Negocios
Yes$13 @ 34.6¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tecnología
Yes$12 @ 53.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Política
Yes$10 @ 76.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Política
No$9 @ 75.1¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Política
No$8 @ 88.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Negocios
No$7 @ 52.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolítica
No$7 @ 94.6¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
No$7 @ 70.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Negocios
Yes$6 @ 73.5¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Política
No$5 @ 59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Política
Yes$5 @ 14.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tecnología
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Política
No$4 @ 70.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolítica
No$4 @ 60.1¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?—
No$3 @ 87.0¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Deportes
No$3 @ 86.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?—
No$3 @ 77.4¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?—
No$3 @ 55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Política
No$3 @ 46.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Política
No$2 @ 88.0¢
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?—
No$2 @ 82.0¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Deportes
Yes$2 @ 78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Deportes
Yes$2 @ 73.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Política
No$2 @ 94.5¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?—
No$2 @ 94.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tecnología
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?Deportes
No$2 @ 75.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Política
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?—
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolítica
Yes$2 @ 58.0¢