Consenso del mercado

Dónde concentran convicción los expertos seguidos, agrupado por mercado y resultado.

Historial · medido

Cuando ≥1 expertos seguidos respaldan el mismo resultado, así es como se ha resuelto:

Acierto: 37%
Implícito: 36%
Ventaja: +1.0pp
Muestra: 105741
ROI, apuesta igual: -8%
ROI, ponderado por $: +2%

Intervalo de confianza del 95% +0.7 to +1.3pp — estadísticamente distinguible de cero.

Verificado en el momento de la resolución: la tasa de acierto por sí sola engaña (el dinero inteligente acumula apuestas improbables baratas), así que medimos la ventaja sobre el precio implícito. Publicamos el intervalo, no solo el punto: la muestra es joven y crece, y no lo llamaremos ventaja hasta que los números lo merezcan.

Cierra en

					Ahora
▸	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	11	$1281.7k	94.5¢	5mo
▸	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Dividido No 50%Yes 50%	16	$1939.0k	79.8¢	28mo
▸	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Fuerte No 99%Yes 1%	11	$774.4k	99.3¢	1d
▸	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Fuerte Yes 99%No 1%	49	$627.1k	80.5¢	1d
▸	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	26	$452.2k	91.5¢	5mo
▸	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	7	$347.7k	98.2¢	1d
▸	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Fuerte No 95%Yes 5%	54	$362.2k	77.5¢	5mo
▸	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Inclinación No 75%Yes 25%	33	$367.4k	54.5¢	3d
▸	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Dividido Yes 50%No 50%	10	$501.5k	19.4¢	28mo
▸	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Fuerte Yes 96%No 4%	21	$205.3k	85.5¢	3mo
▸	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	13	$191.8k	92.8¢	5mo
▸	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Fuerte Yes 99%No 1%	8	$156.1k	56.5¢	2mo
▸	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Fuerte No 91%Yes 9%	21	$155.2k	58.5¢	1mo
▸	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Fuerte No 98%Yes 2%	11	$130.1k	96.0¢	11mo
▸	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Fuerte No 98%Yes 2%	7	$116.1k	77.0¢	22d
▸	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Inclinación Yes 62%No 38%	6	$164.8k	43.0¢	28mo
▸	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	13	$90.1k	83.5¢	5mo
▸	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	6	$87.6k	76.0¢	3d
▸	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Fuerte Yes 99%No 1%	18	$86.2k	83.7¢	5mo
▸	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	4	$85.8k	93.5¢	4d
▸	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	7	$85.6k	91.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Dividido Yes 50%No 50%	5	$160.2k	12.4¢	28mo
▸	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Fuerte Yes 98%No 2%	10	$77.1k	91.5¢	11mo
▸	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Fuerte No 95%Yes 5%	10	$66.7k	77.5¢	4d
▸	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	19	$63.0k	84.5¢	3d
▸	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Inclinación No 75%Yes 25%	10	$77.3k	28.5¢	4mo
▸	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Fuerte No 95%Yes 5%	19	$60.3k	77.5¢	4d
▸	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Fuerte Yes 85%No 15%	19	$65.8k	17.4¢	1d
▸	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Fuerte No 95%Yes 5%	9	$55.1k	90.5¢	5mo
▸	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Inclinación No 67%Yes 33%	14	$76.9k	83.5¢	5mo
▸	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	Fuerte No 99%Yes 1%	6	$50.8k	52.0¢	4d
▸	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Fuerte No 95%Yes 5%	19	$52.3k	91.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Fuerte Yes 99%No 1%	8	$49.8k	65.5¢	7d
▸	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	11	$48.0k	94.1¢	5mo
▸	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Unánime No 100%	8	$41.0k	77.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Unánime No 100%	7	$40.9k	95.0¢	5mo
▸	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	4	$40.3k	85.0¢	17d
▸	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Fuerte No 97%Yes 3%	12	$36.8k	90.0¢	1mo
▸	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Unánime Yes 100%	6	$34.6k	74.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Dividido Yes 52%No 48%	5	$62.8k	11.8¢	28mo
▸	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Fuerte Yes 95%No 5%	14	$34.5k	75.5¢	5mo
▸	US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Unánime No 100%	4	$30.3k	68.0¢	4d
▸	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	6	$30.1k	51.5¢	4d
▸	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Inclinación Yes 75%No 25%	11	$39.3k	52.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Fuerte No 99%Yes 1%	10	$28.7k	93.0¢	5mo
▸	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Unánime No 100%	3	$28.5k	69.0¢	2mo
▸	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Unánime No 100%	3	$27.5k	56.0¢	5mo
▸	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Unánime No 100%	4	$27.4k	87.0¢	5mo
▸	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Fuerte No 81%Yes 19%	15	$32.1k	75.0¢	3mo
▸	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Inclinación Yes 76%No 24%	10	$33.9k	45.5¢	11mo
▸	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Inclinación No 79%Yes 21%	9	$32.7k	72.5¢	1mo
▸	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Fuerte No 81%Yes 19%	9	$30.1k	38.5¢	2mo
▸	Iran leadership change by July 31?	Fuerte No 99%Yes 1%	11	$24.4k	98.4¢	3d
▸	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	Fuerte No 99%Yes 1%	9	$23.1k	94.5¢	3d
▸	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Fuerte Yes 94%No 6%	5	$22.7k	49.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Dividido No 59%Yes 41%	12	$35.1k	62.4¢	5mo
▸	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Unánime Yes 100%	2	$19.7k	80.5¢	1d
▸	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Fuerte Yes 100%No 0%	5	$19.5k	14.7¢	28mo
▸	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Fuerte No 89%Yes 11%	12	$21.9k	96.8¢	2mo
▸	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Fuerte No 92%Yes 8%	10	$20.8k	94.8¢	2mo
▸	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Unánime No 100%	9	$18.5k	67.0¢	5mo
▸	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Inclinación No 67%Yes 33%	7	$27.2k	89.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Fuerte Yes 83%No 17%	6	$21.7k	6.5¢	3mo
▸	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Fuerte No 98%Yes 2%	15	$17.7k	87.0¢	3d
▸	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Unánime No 100%	5	$17.2k	66.5¢	3mo
▸	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	Fuerte No 99%Yes 1%	6	$16.6k	95.0¢	4d
▸	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Inclinación No 63%Yes 37%	8	$25.1k	53.8¢	3mo
▸	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Fuerte Yes 90%No 10%	4	$17.3k	50.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Fuerte Yes 96%No 4%	14	$16.1k	45.5¢	4d
▸	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Fuerte Yes 100%No 0%	3	$15.5k	38.5¢	5mo
▸	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	4	$15.0k	94.0¢	4d
▸	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Fuerte Yes 84%No 16%	7	$17.3k	62.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Fuerte No 95%Yes 5%	4	$15.0k	90.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Unánime No 100%	3	$14.2k	87.5¢	5mo
▸	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Fuerte No 88%Yes 12%	6	$15.5k	73.0¢	5mo
▸	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Unánime Yes 100%	11	$13.7k	85.0¢	4d
▸	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Inclinación No 65%Yes 35%	4	$20.8k	60.5¢	5mo
▸	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Fuerte Yes 100%No 0%	3	$13.4k	55.5¢	3mo
▸	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Unánime No 100%	3	$13.3k	58.8¢	4mo
▸	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Fuerte No 98%Yes 2%	5	$13.5k	88.9¢	5mo
▸	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Dividido No 58%Yes 42%	8	$22.3k	92.5¢	5mo
▸	US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Fuerte Yes 91%No 9%	13	$14.1k	55.5¢	24d
▸	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Fuerte No 96%Yes 4%	10	$13.0k	70.0¢	3d
▸	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Unánime No 100%	4	$12.1k	64.0¢	19d
▸	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Fuerte No 99%Yes 1%	7	$11.8k	86.5¢	5mo
▸	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Unánime No 100%	5	$11.5k	88.8¢	5mo
▸	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Inclinación Yes 73%No 27%	7	$15.3k	41.5¢	3mo
▸	Trump out as President before 2027?	Inclinación No 70%Yes 30%	14	$15.7k	92.5¢	5mo
▸	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	7	$10.8k	81.0¢	4d
▸	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	Fuerte Yes 92%No 8%	9	$11.6k	46.5¢	1mo
▸	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Dividido No 57%Yes 43%	9	$18.4k	72.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Unánime Yes 100%	2	$10.4k	5.5¢	28mo
▸	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Unánime Yes 100%	3	$10.3k	0.4¢	28mo
▸	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Inclinación No 72%Yes 28%	9	$14.2k	86.5¢	3mo
▸	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Unánime Yes 100%	4	$10.2k	4.9¢	28mo
▸	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	8	$9.8k	90.5¢	2mo
▸	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Fuerte No 85%Yes 15%	4	$11.4k	90.3¢	3mo
▸	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Fuerte No 100%Yes 0%	3	$9.4k	52.0¢	4d
▸	Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Unánime Yes 100%	5	$9.2k	67.5¢	3d
▸	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Fuerte Yes 99%No 1%	4	$9.1k	20.5¢	5mo