0xd414…a4db

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd4140031e313f8d850740a80d2ee6653c925a4db
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

+7.1pp

ROI

+22%

Tasa de acierto

36% @ 29.2¢

Brier

0.158

Resueltas

953

Tamaño med.

$170

Tendencia ROI

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Other	36% (17/47)	+61%	47
Política	34% (12/35)	+5%	35
Tecnología	33% (1/3)	-69%	3
Geopolítica	67% (2/3)	-37%	3
Cripto	100% (2/2)	+53%	2
Economía	100% (1/1)	+23%	1

Other47 apuestas
Tasa acierto
36% (17/47)
ROI
+61%
Política35 apuestas
Tasa acierto
34% (12/35)
ROI
+5%
Tecnología3 apuestas
Tasa acierto
33% (1/3)
ROI
-69%
Geopolítica3 apuestas
Tasa acierto
67% (2/3)
ROI
-37%
Cripto2 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (2/2)
ROI
+53%
Economía1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%

Historial

38% acierto · 35/91

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$2	0.3¢	Perdió
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$286	81.1¢	Ganó
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Perdió
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$60	0.2¢	Perdió
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	37.1¢	Ganó
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$6.9k	79.8¢	Ganó
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$2.3k	31.3¢	Ganó
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	Yes	$1.6k	16.8¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15.2k	25.0¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	$1.1k	9.0¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	Yes	$1.6k	56.2¢	Ganó
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$445	78.0¢	Ganó
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	Yes	$42	4.5¢	Perdió
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?	Yes	$4	3.1¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$4.1k	7.7¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Perdió
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Perdió
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	15.4¢	Perdió
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$3	0.6¢	Perdió
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$536	80.0¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	15.8¢	Perdió
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	63.7¢	Ganó
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Perdió
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$32	60.0¢	Ganó
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	Yes	$23	73.3¢	Ganó
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$10.1k	70.2¢	Ganó
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$957	37.6¢	Perdió
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	58.8¢	Ganó
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9	0.8¢	Perdió
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$4.2k	69.5¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$5.3k	26.1¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?	Yes	$49	1.8¢	Perdió
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$385	33.9¢	Ganó
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$161	0.1¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Perdió
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	1.3¢	Ganó
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$11	6.0¢	Perdió
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$8	47.0¢	Ganó
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$354	70.5¢	Ganó
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$14.7k	17.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$21.8k	35.8¢	Ganó
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	$1.3k	33.0¢	Perdió
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	$74	7.5¢	Perdió
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$7.2k	89.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	$837	7.9¢	Perdió
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$20	3.3¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?	Yes	$11	0.3¢	Perdió
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$950	19.0¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	Yes	$17	1.2¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?	Yes	$18	1.3¢	Perdió

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Perdió
No$2 @ 0.3¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Ganó
No$286 @ 81.1¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?Perdió
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Perdió
No$60 @ 0.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Ganó
Yes$1.4k @ 37.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Ganó
No$6.9k @ 79.8¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Ganó
No$2.3k @ 31.3¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Perdió
Yes$1.6k @ 16.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$15.2k @ 25.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Perdió
No$1.1k @ 9.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Ganó
Yes$1.6k @ 56.2¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Ganó
No$445 @ 78.0¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Perdió
Yes$42 @ 4.5¢
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?Perdió
Yes$4 @ 3.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$4.1k @ 7.7¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Perdió
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$40 @ 15.4¢
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Perdió
No$3 @ 0.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Ganó
No$536 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1.9k @ 15.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$1.0k @ 63.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Ganó
Yes$32 @ 60.0¢
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Ganó
Yes$23 @ 73.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Ganó
No$10.1k @ 70.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Perdió
Yes$957 @ 37.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$1.4k @ 58.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Perdió
Yes$9 @ 0.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Ganó
No$4.2k @ 69.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Perdió
Yes$5.3k @ 26.1¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?Perdió
Yes$49 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Ganó
No$385 @ 33.9¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Perdió
Yes$161 @ 0.1¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?Perdió
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$20 @ 1.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Perdió
No$11 @ 6.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Ganó
Yes$8 @ 47.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Ganó
No$354 @ 70.5¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Perdió
Yes$14.7k @ 17.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$21.8k @ 35.8¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Perdió
No$1.3k @ 33.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Perdió
No$74 @ 7.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Ganó
Yes$7.2k @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Perdió
Yes$837 @ 7.9¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Perdió
No$20 @ 3.3¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?Perdió
Yes$11 @ 0.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$950 @ 19.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?Perdió
Yes$17 @ 1.2¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?Perdió
Yes$18 @ 1.3¢

Operaciones recientes

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Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Política	No	$114	57.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Política	No	$67	31.4¢
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?	Economía	Yes	$39	39.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Política	Yes	$13	5.3¢
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Política	Yes	$9	59.1¢

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Política
No$114 @ 57.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Política
No$67 @ 31.4¢
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?Economía
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Política
Yes$13 @ 5.3¢
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Política
Yes$9 @ 59.1¢