0xb4f6…eada

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb4f655b9314dd464b42da40f82a1df65375feada
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

+2.5pp

ROI

+9%

Tasa de acierto

35% @ 32.3¢

Brier

0.168

Resueltas

1536

Tamaño med.

Tendencia ROI

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Política	55% (62/113)	+9%	113
Other	58% (53/92)	+5%	92
Deportes	60% (27/45)	+16%	45
Geopolítica	62% (23/37)	-3%	37
Tecnología	86% (12/14)	+15%	14
Cripto	64% (7/11)	-21%	11
Cultura	80% (4/5)	-26%	5
Economía	50% (1/2)	-52%	2
Negocios	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Política113 apuestas
Tasa acierto
55% (62/113)
ROI
+9%
Other92 apuestas
Tasa acierto
58% (53/92)
ROI
+5%
Deportes45 apuestas
Tasa acierto
60% (27/45)
ROI
+16%
Geopolítica37 apuestas
Tasa acierto
62% (23/37)
ROI
-3%
Tecnología14 apuestas
Tasa acierto
86% (12/14)
ROI
+15%
Cripto11 apuestas
Tasa acierto
64% (7/11)
ROI
-21%
Cultura5 apuestas
Tasa acierto
80% (4/5)
ROI
-26%
Economía2 apuestas
Tasa acierto
50% (1/2)
ROI
-52%
Negocios1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Historial

59% acierto · 190/320

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$17	61.7¢	Ganó
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$17	41.3¢	Perdió
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Perdió
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$35	21.8¢	Ganó
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	$26	3.4¢	Perdió
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$71	56.7¢	Ganó
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$10	26.0¢	Perdió
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$6	4.9¢	Perdió
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$60	84.8¢	Ganó
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$30	62.8¢	Ganó
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?	No	$35	84.0¢	Ganó
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$14	36.8¢	Perdió
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Ganó
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$25	50.9¢	Perdió
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$8	88.0¢	Ganó
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$82	33.4¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$95	52.0¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$35	79.7¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$77	29.8¢	Perdió
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 3-9?	Yes	$12	1.4¢	Perdió
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	5.6¢	Perdió
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$60	55.0¢	Perdió
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	$2	13.1¢	Perdió
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	$1	13.8¢	Ganó
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5	Under	$1	51.0¢	Perdió
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$30	73.7¢	Ganó
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$10	24.0¢	Perdió
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$31	0.8¢	Perdió
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?	No	$67	71.4¢	Ganó
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$4	2.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$60	44.9¢	Perdió
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$30	69.0¢	Perdió
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$38	52.4¢	Perdió
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$30	61.0¢	Perdió
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$10	4.2¢	Perdió
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Perdió
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?	No	$6	61.0¢	Perdió
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$60	59.3¢	Ganó
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Perdió
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$9	86.0¢	Ganó
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$66	12.3¢	Perdió
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	1.3¢	Perdió
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$23	19.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$97	35.2¢	Ganó
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	No	$30	41.8¢	Ganó
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$4	7.4¢	Perdió
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$10	20.0¢	Ganó
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$83	13.4¢	Perdió
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$70	4.5¢	Perdió
NYPost cover features $Laptop by September 23?	No	$8	84.0¢	Ganó

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Ganó
No$17 @ 61.7¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Perdió
Yes$17 @ 41.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ganó
No$35 @ 21.8¢
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?Perdió
Yes$26 @ 3.4¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Ganó
No$71 @ 56.7¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Perdió
No$10 @ 26.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Perdió
Yes$6 @ 4.9¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Ganó
No$60 @ 84.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Ganó
Yes$30 @ 62.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?Ganó
No$35 @ 84.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Perdió
No$14 @ 36.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Perdió
Yes$25 @ 50.9¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Ganó
No$8 @ 88.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Perdió
Yes$82 @ 33.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Ganó
Yes$95 @ 52.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Ganó
No$35 @ 79.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$77 @ 29.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 3-9?Perdió
Yes$12 @ 1.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$20 @ 5.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Perdió
No$60 @ 55.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 13.1¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 13.8¢
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Perdió
Under$1 @ 51.0¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Ganó
Yes$30 @ 73.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Perdió
Yes$10 @ 24.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Perdió
Yes$31 @ 0.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?Ganó
No$67 @ 71.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Perdió
No$4 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Perdió
No$60 @ 44.9¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Perdió
Yes$30 @ 69.0¢
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Perdió
Yes$38 @ 52.4¢
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Perdió
No$30 @ 61.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Perdió
No$10 @ 4.2¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?Perdió
No$6 @ 61.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Ganó
No$60 @ 59.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Ganó
No$9 @ 86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Perdió
Yes$66 @ 12.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Perdió
No$23 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Ganó
Yes$97 @ 35.2¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Ganó
No$30 @ 41.8¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Perdió
Yes$4 @ 7.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Ganó
No$10 @ 20.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$83 @ 13.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Perdió
Yes$70 @ 4.5¢
NYPost cover features $Laptop by September 23?Ganó
No$8 @ 84.0¢

Operaciones recientes

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Cargando operaciones recientes…

Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Política	No	$125	81.9¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Política	No	$70	97.0¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Política	No	$70	99.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Política	No	$70	91.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Política	Yes	$70	16.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Política	Yes	$65	46.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Política	Yes	$60	80.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Política	No	$60	80.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Política	No	$60	70.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Negocios	No	$60	63.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Política	No	$60	80.5¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Política	No	$60	95.5¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Política	No	$60	70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Política	No	$60	37.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Política	No	$60	65.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Cripto	No	$60	78.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?	Política	No	$59	89.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Política	Yes	$53	74.4¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Política	No	$53	91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Política	Yes	$49	32.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Negocios	No	$46	93.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Política	No	$42	89.9¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Deportes	No	$38	85.7¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Política	No	$37	86.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Política	No	$35	97.4¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Deportes	No	$30	99.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	Política	No	$30	81.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Política	Yes	$24	50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Política	No	$24	50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Política	Yes	$20	76.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Política
No$125 @ 81.9¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Política
No$70 @ 97.0¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Política
No$70 @ 99.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Política
No$70 @ 91.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Política
Yes$70 @ 16.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Política
Yes$65 @ 46.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Política
Yes$60 @ 80.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Política
No$60 @ 80.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Política
No$60 @ 70.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Negocios
No$60 @ 63.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Política
No$60 @ 80.5¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Política
No$60 @ 95.5¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Política
No$60 @ 70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Política
No$60 @ 37.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Política
No$60 @ 65.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Cripto
No$60 @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?Política
No$59 @ 89.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Política
Yes$53 @ 74.4¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Política
No$53 @ 91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Política
Yes$49 @ 32.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Negocios
No$46 @ 93.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Política
No$42 @ 89.9¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Deportes
No$38 @ 85.7¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Política
No$37 @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Política
No$35 @ 97.4¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Deportes
No$30 @ 99.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?Política
No$30 @ 81.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Política
Yes$24 @ 50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Política
No$24 @ 50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Política
Yes$20 @ 76.0¢