0x8a4c…2c4c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8a4ceea487d437f8ca48fde1533d09b61f6f2c4c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

+14.7pp

ROI

+40%

Tasa de acierto

68% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.177

Resueltas

770

Tamaño med.

$73

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Other	57% (29/51)	+104%	51
Política	56% (20/36)	+12%	36
Cripto	33% (3/9)	-6%	9
Geopolítica	75% (6/8)	+45%	8
Economía	57% (4/7)	+31%	7
Deportes	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other51 apuestas
Tasa acierto
57% (29/51)
ROI
+104%
Política36 apuestas
Tasa acierto
56% (20/36)
ROI
+12%
Cripto9 apuestas
Tasa acierto
33% (3/9)
ROI
-6%
Geopolítica8 apuestas
Tasa acierto
75% (6/8)
ROI
+45%
Economía7 apuestas
Tasa acierto
57% (4/7)
ROI
+31%
Deportes1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Historial

55% acierto · 62/112

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$529	83.8¢	Ganó
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$239	40.8¢	Ganó
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$3	44.0¢	Perdió
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?	No	$250	81.9¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$500	76.7¢	Ganó
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$43	42.9¢	Ganó
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$408	71.8¢	Perdió
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	$200	7.9¢	Perdió
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$270	0.4¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	85.3¢	Ganó
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	21.0¢	Ganó
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$60	3.8¢	Perdió
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$71	71.0¢	Ganó
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$200	84.8¢	Ganó
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$106	3.2¢	Perdió
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$50	0.2¢	Perdió
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$100	6.7¢	Perdió
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$143	18.1¢	Ganó
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$277	79.1¢	Ganó
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$5.0k	69.3¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$250	68.5¢	Perdió
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$390	39.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$200	18.0¢	Perdió
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$290	45.4¢	Ganó
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	$103	15.0¢	Perdió
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$108	43.0¢	Perdió
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$450	69.2¢	Ganó
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$310	4.7¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$1.5k	48.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Perdió
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	No	$1.2k	75.2¢	Ganó
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$95	19.0¢	Ganó
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$317	44.4¢	Perdió
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$60	61.8¢	Ganó
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$200	65.7¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$570	81.4¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	62.1¢	Perdió
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?	No	$811	73.0¢	Ganó
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$90	68.2¢	Ganó
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$590	39.3¢	Ganó
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	$19	15.9¢	Ganó
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29?	No	$154	53.6¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$50	34.0¢	Perdió
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	6.8¢	Perdió
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$30	6.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$100	89.0¢	Ganó
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	$200	88.0¢	Ganó
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$1.2k	44.7¢	Perdió
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	39.8¢	Ganó

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Ganó
No$529 @ 83.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Ganó
Yes$239 @ 40.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Perdió
No$3 @ 44.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?Ganó
No$250 @ 81.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$500 @ 76.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Ganó
Yes$43 @ 42.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Perdió
No$408 @ 71.8¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Perdió
No$200 @ 7.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Perdió
Yes$270 @ 0.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Ganó
No$300 @ 85.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Ganó
Yes$14 @ 21.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Perdió
No$60 @ 3.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Ganó
No$71 @ 71.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Ganó
No$200 @ 84.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Perdió
Yes$106 @ 3.2¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Perdió
No$50 @ 0.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Perdió
Yes$100 @ 6.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Ganó
Yes$143 @ 18.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Ganó
No$277 @ 79.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Ganó
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Ganó
No$5.0k @ 69.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Perdió
Yes$250 @ 68.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Perdió
Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Perdió
Yes$200 @ 18.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Ganó
No$290 @ 45.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Perdió
Yes$103 @ 15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$108 @ 43.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Ganó
No$450 @ 69.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Ganó
Yes$310 @ 4.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Ganó
No$1.5k @ 48.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Perdió
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Ganó
No$1.2k @ 75.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Ganó
Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Perdió
No$317 @ 44.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Ganó
Yes$60 @ 61.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Ganó
No$200 @ 65.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Ganó
No$570 @ 81.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Perdió
No$1.5k @ 62.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?Ganó
No$811 @ 73.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Ganó
No$90 @ 68.2¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Ganó
Yes$590 @ 39.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Ganó
No$19 @ 15.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29?Ganó
No$154 @ 53.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Perdió
No$50 @ 34.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$100 @ 6.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Ganó
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Ganó
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Ganó
No$200 @ 88.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Perdió
No$1.2k @ 44.7¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Ganó
Yes$2.4k @ 39.8¢

Operaciones recientes

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Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Política	No	$3.2k	81.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Política	No	$1.5k	88.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$1.2k	13.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Política	No	$1000	70.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Política	No	$1000	51.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economía	Yes	$939	25.6¢
New pandemic before 2028?	Other	No	$500	78.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Ciencia	No	$500	90.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Política	No	$500	78.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Cripto	No	$480	55.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Cripto	No	$410	73.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Política	No	$400	32.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Política	Yes	$290	11.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$209	9.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Política	No	$205	80.5¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	Geopolítica	No	$200	89.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Política	No	$200	48.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$200	8.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Política	No	$100	12.2¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Tecnología	Yes	$55	17.5¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tecnología	Yes	$40	32.3¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?	Economía	Yes	$36	15.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$35	26.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$20	4.8¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$20	4.8¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?	Other	Yes	$19	63.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Política
No$3.2k @ 81.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Política
No$1.5k @ 88.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$1.2k @ 13.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Política
No$1000 @ 70.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Política
No$1000 @ 51.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economía
Yes$939 @ 25.6¢
New pandemic before 2028?Other
No$500 @ 78.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Ciencia
No$500 @ 90.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Política
No$500 @ 78.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Cripto
No$480 @ 55.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Cripto
No$410 @ 73.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Política
No$400 @ 32.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Política
Yes$290 @ 11.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Política
Yes$209 @ 9.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Política
No$205 @ 80.5¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?Geopolítica
No$200 @ 89.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Política
No$200 @ 48.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$200 @ 8.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Política
No$100 @ 12.2¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tecnología
Yes$55 @ 17.5¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tecnología
Yes$40 @ 32.3¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?Economía
Yes$36 @ 15.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Política
Yes$35 @ 26.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Política
Yes$20 @ 4.8¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Política
Yes$20 @ 4.8¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?Other
Yes$19 @ 63.0¢