0x614d…1546

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

+10.7pp

ROI

+10%

Tasa de acierto

68% @ 57.0¢

Brier

0.171

Resueltas

4310

Tamaño med.

$519

Tendencia ROI

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Política	72% (79/110)	+20%	110
Other	53% (30/57)	-19%	57
Geopolítica	82% (14/17)	+2%	17
Deportes	40% (4/10)	-50%	10
Cripto	71% (5/7)	+68%	7
Tecnología	67% (2/3)	+43%	3

Política110 apuestas
Tasa acierto
72% (79/110)
ROI
+20%
Other57 apuestas
Tasa acierto
53% (30/57)
ROI
-19%
Geopolítica17 apuestas
Tasa acierto
82% (14/17)
ROI
+2%
Deportes10 apuestas
Tasa acierto
40% (4/10)
ROI
-50%
Cripto7 apuestas
Tasa acierto
71% (5/7)
ROI
+68%
Tecnología3 apuestas
Tasa acierto
67% (2/3)
ROI
+43%

Historial

66% acierto · 134/204

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$5.9k	39.1¢	Ganó
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$4.0k	85.3¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.6k	87.0¢	Ganó
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	$3.0k	58.8¢	Ganó
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	$953	18.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$7.7k	85.6¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$18.8k	26.8¢	Perdió
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$45.0k	69.6¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$781	72.9¢	Ganó
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$6.3k	38.8¢	Perdió
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$3.4k	64.7¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$4.8k	31.6¢	Perdió
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	$374	90.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$34.9k	38.4¢	Perdió
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$23.0k	85.3¢	Ganó
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Curaçao	$467	46.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$9.0k	13.5¢	Perdió
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$2.2k	61.3¢	Perdió
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek	Iga Swiatek	$978	24.5¢	Perdió
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$13.7k	75.9¢	Ganó
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$16.4k	85.0¢	Perdió
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6.1k	60.7¢	Ganó
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	Egypt	$92	8.9¢	Perdió
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$1.0k	33.4¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	14.7¢	Perdió
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$70	58.0¢	Ganó
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	$3.3k	45.0¢	Perdió
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	No	$3.4k	86.0¢	Ganó
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$605	88.1¢	Ganó
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	$1.5k	44.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$26.0k	39.4¢	Ganó
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$4.2k	84.2¢	Ganó
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$1.8k	32.1¢	Perdió
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	$5.7k	80.0¢	Ganó
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	No	$726	72.0¢	Ganó
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	27.1¢	Perdió
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$19.8k	85.6¢	Ganó
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	$1.3k	7.2¢	Perdió
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$2.1k	13.9¢	Perdió
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$66.6k	61.1¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$10.7k	74.7¢	Ganó
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	76.9¢	Ganó
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	$1.8k	57.2¢	Perdió
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	$4.1k	81.5¢	Ganó
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.1k	30.9¢	Perdió
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$100	0.1¢	Perdió
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?	No	$1.2k	74.5¢	Ganó
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$4.0k	53.9¢	Ganó
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$30.9k	58.7¢	Perdió
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Under	$871	17.0¢	Perdió

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Ganó
Yes$5.9k @ 39.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Ganó
No$4.0k @ 85.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$2.6k @ 87.0¢
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Ganó
Yes$3.0k @ 58.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Perdió
Yes$953 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Ganó
No$7.7k @ 85.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$18.8k @ 26.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Ganó
No$45.0k @ 69.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Ganó
No$781 @ 72.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Perdió
Yes$6.3k @ 38.8¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Ganó
Yes$3.4k @ 64.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Perdió
Yes$4.8k @ 31.6¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Ganó
No$374 @ 90.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Perdió
Yes$34.9k @ 38.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Ganó
No$23.0k @ 85.3¢
Spread: Germany (-3.5)Perdió
Curaçao$467 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Perdió
Yes$9.0k @ 13.5¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Perdió
No$2.2k @ 61.3¢
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga SwiatekPerdió
Iga Swiatek$978 @ 24.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Ganó
No$13.7k @ 75.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Perdió
Yes$16.4k @ 85.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$6.1k @ 60.7¢
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Perdió
Egypt$92 @ 8.9¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Perdió
Yes$1.0k @ 33.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1.6k @ 14.7¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Ganó
Yes$70 @ 58.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Perdió
Yes$3.3k @ 45.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Ganó
No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Ganó
No$605 @ 88.1¢
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Ganó
Under$1.5k @ 44.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$26.0k @ 39.4¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Ganó
Yes$4.2k @ 84.2¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Perdió
No$1.8k @ 32.1¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Ganó
Yes$5.7k @ 80.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?Ganó
No$726 @ 72.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$3.6k @ 27.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Ganó
No$19.8k @ 85.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Perdió
Yes$1.3k @ 7.2¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Perdió
Yes$2.1k @ 13.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Ganó
Yes$66.6k @ 61.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$10.7k @ 74.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$3.9k @ 76.9¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Perdió
No$1.8k @ 57.2¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Ganó
No$4.1k @ 81.5¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Perdió
Yes$1.1k @ 30.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Perdió
Yes$100 @ 0.1¢
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?Ganó
No$1.2k @ 74.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Ganó
No$4.0k @ 53.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Perdió
Yes$30.9k @ 58.7¢
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5Perdió
Under$871 @ 17.0¢

Operaciones recientes

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Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolítica	Yes	$72.5k	90.4¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Política	Yes	$33.1k	53.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolítica	Yes	$31.5k	63.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Política	Yes	$27.5k	58.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Política	Yes	$25.8k	86.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Política	No	$24.6k	70.4¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Política	Yes	$12.9k	85.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Política	Yes	$11.0k	55.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Política	No	$3.5k	70.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Política	Yes	$3.5k	57.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Política	Yes	$2.5k	49.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Política	Yes	$2.1k	77.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Política	Yes	$733	73.0¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026?	Política	No	$574	83.2¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolítica
Yes$72.5k @ 90.4¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Política
Yes$33.1k @ 53.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolítica
Yes$31.5k @ 63.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Política
Yes$27.5k @ 58.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Política
Yes$25.8k @ 86.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Política
No$24.6k @ 70.4¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Política
Yes$12.9k @ 85.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Política
Yes$11.0k @ 55.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Política
No$3.5k @ 70.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Política
Yes$3.5k @ 57.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Política
Yes$2.5k @ 49.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Política
Yes$2.1k @ 77.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Política
Yes$733 @ 73.0¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026?Política
No$574 @ 83.2¢