0x4cff…7cdb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4cff670cfe6ca3cfa50477c939149d1bd2017cdb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

-6.8pp

ROI

+6%

Tasa de acierto

53% @ 59.8¢

Brier

0.202

Resueltas

566

Tamaño med.

$73

Tendencia ROI

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Deportes	58% (52/89)	-1%	89
Other	64% (41/64)	+8%	64
Tecnología	52% (11/21)	+9%	21
Política	47% (7/15)	-82%	15
Geopolítica	100% (2/2)	+35%	2
Economía	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Deportes89 apuestas
Tasa acierto
58% (52/89)
ROI
-1%
Other64 apuestas
Tasa acierto
64% (41/64)
ROI
+8%
Tecnología21 apuestas
Tasa acierto
52% (11/21)
ROI
+9%
Política15 apuestas
Tasa acierto
47% (7/15)
ROI
-82%
Geopolítica2 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (2/2)
ROI
+35%
Economía1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Historial

59% acierto · 113/192

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	$12	51.0¢	Ganó
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	No	$7	52.7¢	Perdió
Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	$15	50.0¢	Ganó
Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	No	$15	71.0¢	Ganó
Will Warsh say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during October Press Conference?	No	$3	36.0¢	Perdió
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$51	73.2¢	Ganó
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?	No	$9	90.0¢	Ganó
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Perdió
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$100	26.6¢	Perdió
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$995	73.6¢	Ganó
Sevilla FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5	Over	$53	54.3¢	Ganó
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$20	67.0¢	Ganó
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$10	58.0¢	Ganó
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Perdió
Will Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	$14	29.4¢	Ganó
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$1.4k	75.7¢	Ganó
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$5	26.0¢	Perdió
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$10	69.0¢	Perdió
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	$3	13.0¢	Perdió
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$16	59.6¢	Ganó
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$2	40.0¢	Perdió
Will Trump say "Smelter" during his rally in Oklahoma?	No	$1	84.0¢	Ganó
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?	No	$5	63.4¢	Perdió
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	No	$20	56.2¢	Perdió
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	$1	27.0¢	Ganó
Spain vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5	Over	$5	63.0¢	Ganó
England vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	Over	$10	72.5¢	Ganó
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Perdió
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Morocco	$5	42.0¢	Ganó
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	$10	59.0¢	Perdió
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	$25	87.0¢	Ganó
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his rally in Oklahoma?	No	$1	63.0¢	Perdió
France vs. Italy: O/U 1.5	Over	$1	62.0¢	Ganó
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$1	49.0¢	Perdió
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	No	$1	13.0¢	Perdió
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$10	66.0¢	Ganó
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?	No	$1	12.0¢	Perdió
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$2	56.0¢	Ganó
Will France win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	$12	72.3¢	Ganó
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Ganó
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	$5	68.0¢	Perdió
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$237	55.0¢	Perdió
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$15	70.7¢	Ganó
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$2	63.0¢	Perdió
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$5	61.0¢	Ganó
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Ganó
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$8	71.0¢	Ganó
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$211	87.7¢	Perdió
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$8	49.7¢	Perdió
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	83.0¢	Ganó

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Ganó
Yes$12 @ 51.0¢
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?Perdió
No$7 @ 52.7¢
Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?Ganó
No$15 @ 50.0¢
Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?Ganó
No$15 @ 71.0¢
Will Warsh say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during October Press Conference?Perdió
No$3 @ 36.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ganó
Yes$51 @ 73.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Ganó
No$9 @ 90.0¢
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Perdió
No$100 @ 26.6¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Ganó
Yes$995 @ 73.6¢
Sevilla FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5Ganó
Over$53 @ 54.3¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Ganó
Yes$20 @ 67.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Ganó
Yes$10 @ 58.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Will Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?Ganó
Yes$14 @ 29.4¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceGanó
Argentina$1.4k @ 75.7¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvancePerdió
Switzerland$5 @ 26.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Perdió
Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Perdió
No$3 @ 13.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Ganó
Yes$16 @ 59.6¢
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Perdió
No$2 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump say "Smelter" during his rally in Oklahoma?Ganó
No$1 @ 84.0¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Perdió
No$5 @ 63.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Perdió
No$20 @ 56.2¢
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
Spain vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5Ganó
Over$5 @ 63.0¢
England vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5Ganó
Over$10 @ 72.5¢
Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-01?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceGanó
Morocco$5 @ 42.0¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvancePerdió
Netherlands$10 @ 59.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?Ganó
Yes$25 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his rally in Oklahoma?Perdió
No$1 @ 63.0¢
France vs. Italy: O/U 1.5Ganó
Over$1 @ 62.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 49.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?Perdió
No$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Ganó
Yes$10 @ 66.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?Perdió
No$1 @ 12.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 56.0¢
Will France win on 2026-09-25?Ganó
Yes$12 @ 72.3¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?Perdió
Yes$5 @ 68.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Perdió
Yes$237 @ 55.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Ganó
Yes$15 @ 70.7¢
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Perdió
No$2 @ 63.0¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?Ganó
Yes$5 @ 61.0¢
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?Ganó
Yes$8 @ 71.0¢
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Perdió
No$211 @ 87.7¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Perdió
Yes$8 @ 49.7¢
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Ganó
Yes$10 @ 83.0¢

Operaciones recientes

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Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Política	No	$38	35.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Política	Yes	$32	47.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Política	No	$32	61.1¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Tecnología	No	$31	58.8¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Tecnología	Yes	$21	32.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Tecnología	No	$11	75.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Tecnología	No	$11	7.1¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economía	No	$10	16.1¢
Next Gemini Argon released by December 31, 2026?	Tecnología	No	$9	77.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Política	Yes	$7	61.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Política	No	$2	50.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Tecnología	Yes	$1	25.0¢

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Política
No$38 @ 35.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Política
Yes$32 @ 47.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Política
No$32 @ 61.1¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?Tecnología
No$31 @ 58.8¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tecnología
Yes$21 @ 32.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tecnología
No$11 @ 75.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Tecnología
No$11 @ 7.1¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economía
No$10 @ 16.1¢
Next Gemini Argon released by December 31, 2026?Tecnología
No$9 @ 77.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Política
Yes$7 @ 61.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Política
No$2 @ 50.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tecnología
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢