0x4bf4…7021

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4bf459194025b2ca11a2db2deb9ef2a08c467021
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

+14.5pp

ROI

+16%

Tasa de acierto

61% @ 46.6¢

Brier

0.148

Resueltas

275

Tamaño med.

$16

Tendencia ROI

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Política	53% (10/19)	+14%	19
Other	65% (11/17)	+40%	17
Cripto	100% (3/3)	+72%	3
Tecnología	100% (1/1)	+21%	1
Geopolítica	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Política19 apuestas
Tasa acierto
53% (10/19)
ROI
+14%
Other17 apuestas
Tasa acierto
65% (11/17)
ROI
+40%
Cripto3 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (3/3)
ROI
+72%
Tecnología1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (1/1)
ROI
+21%
Geopolítica1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Historial

61% acierto · 25/41

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$38	83.3¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$417	29.5¢	Perdió
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$20	47.0¢	Perdió
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	No	$18	48.1¢	Ganó
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$15	29.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$344	15.1¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$10	84.0¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$8	74.0¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$8	13.0¢	Perdió
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$138	55.5¢	Ganó
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Ganó
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$25	78.5¢	Ganó
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$14	78.0¢	Ganó
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$38	82.5¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$202	19.3¢	Perdió
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$22	88.1¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$19	55.5¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	63.2¢	Ganó
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$33	40.9¢	Ganó
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$17	87.0¢	Ganó
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	17.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$18	74.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$17	18.0¢	Perdió
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$45	85.8¢	Ganó
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Yes	$17	81.0¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$45	76.4¢	Ganó
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$53	50.0¢	Ganó
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	$30	21.7¢	Perdió
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	$18	89.0¢	Ganó
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$116	65.2¢	Ganó
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$173	36.5¢	Ganó
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$52	48.5¢	Perdió
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$16	89.0¢	Ganó
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$81	85.9¢	Ganó
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Perdió
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1.1k	65.4¢	Ganó
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	$20	4.6¢	Perdió
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	$22	9.6¢	Perdió
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$36	31.4¢	Ganó
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$78	66.3¢	Perdió
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	$23	5.1¢	Perdió

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Ganó
No$38 @ 83.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$417 @ 29.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Perdió
Yes$20 @ 47.0¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Ganó
No$18 @ 48.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Perdió
No$15 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$344 @ 15.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Ganó
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Ganó
No$8 @ 74.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$8 @ 13.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$138 @ 55.5¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Ganó
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Ganó
Yes$25 @ 78.5¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?Ganó
Yes$14 @ 78.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Ganó
Yes$38 @ 82.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Perdió
Yes$202 @ 19.3¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Ganó
No$22 @ 88.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Perdió
No$19 @ 55.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$1.1k @ 63.2¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Ganó
Yes$33 @ 40.9¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Ganó
Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$11 @ 17.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Ganó
No$18 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$17 @ 18.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Ganó
Yes$45 @ 85.8¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?Ganó
Yes$17 @ 81.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$45 @ 76.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$53 @ 50.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Perdió
No$30 @ 21.7¢
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?Ganó
Yes$18 @ 89.0¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Ganó
Yes$116 @ 65.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Ganó
Yes$173 @ 36.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Perdió
No$52 @ 48.5¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Ganó
No$16 @ 89.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Ganó
No$81 @ 85.9¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Perdió
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Ganó
Yes$1.1k @ 65.4¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Perdió
No$20 @ 4.6¢
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Perdió
Yes$22 @ 9.6¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Ganó
No$36 @ 31.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Perdió
No$78 @ 66.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Perdió
Yes$23 @ 5.1¢

Operaciones recientes

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Cargando operaciones recientes…

Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economía	Yes	$930	64.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Política	Yes	$850	42.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Geopolítica	Yes	$680	64.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolítica	No	$500	50.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Política	Yes	$261	26.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolítica	Yes	$214	19.0¢
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?	Política	Yes	$203	70.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Política	Yes	$161	43.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Deportes	Yes	$145	2.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Política	No	$136	57.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Política	Yes	$123	62.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$88	8.8¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolítica	Yes	$73	10.6¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Política	Yes	$60	66.1¢
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Política	No	$51	68.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tecnología	Yes	$20	3.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tecnología	Yes	$7	7.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$4	85.0¢

Fed rate hike in 2026?Economía
Yes$930 @ 64.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolítica
Yes$850 @ 42.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Geopolítica
Yes$680 @ 64.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolítica
No$500 @ 50.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Política
Yes$261 @ 26.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolítica
Yes$214 @ 19.0¢
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Política
Yes$203 @ 70.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Política
Yes$161 @ 43.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Deportes
Yes$145 @ 2.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Política
No$136 @ 57.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Política
Yes$123 @ 62.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Política
Yes$88 @ 8.8¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolítica
Yes$73 @ 10.6¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Política
Yes$60 @ 66.1¢
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Política
No$51 @ 68.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tecnología
Yes$20 @ 3.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tecnología
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$4 @ 85.0¢