0x474a…c816

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x474a676f101c6fe4938ed053656cf9bbc443c816
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Rentable

Ventaja

+18.7pp

ROI

+226%

Tasa de acierto

46% @ 27.6¢

Brier

0.250

Resueltas

162

Tamaño med.

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Other	55% (21/38)	+1035%	38
Política	18% (4/22)	-92%	22
Geopolítica	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Tecnología	25% (1/4)	-55%	4
Economía	100% (3/3)	+64%	3
Deportes	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Cripto	100% (1/1)	+194%	1

Other38 apuestas
Tasa acierto
55% (21/38)
ROI
+1035%
Política22 apuestas
Tasa acierto
18% (4/22)
ROI
-92%
Geopolítica5 apuestas
Tasa acierto
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Tecnología4 apuestas
Tasa acierto
25% (1/4)
ROI
-55%
Economía3 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (3/3)
ROI
+64%
Deportes2 apuestas
Tasa acierto
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Cripto1 apuestas
Tasa acierto
100% (1/1)
ROI
+194%

Historial

40% acierto · 30/75

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.5¢	Perdió
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Ganó
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$5	60.2¢	Ganó
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$1	22.2¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$125	4.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$75	7.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Perdió
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$4	15.9¢	Perdió
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Perdió
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$1	83.0¢	Ganó
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25?	No	$1	86.0¢	Ganó
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1	50.0¢	Perdió
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$4	5.7¢	Perdió
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2	27.0¢	Perdió
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	Yes	$2	7.8¢	Perdió
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$36	34.0¢	Ganó
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?	No	$1	44.0¢	Perdió
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Perdió
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Perdió
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	55.0¢	Ganó
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$1	15.0¢	Ganó
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$24	2.0¢	Ganó
James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	$1	78.0¢	Ganó
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	$1	51.0¢	Ganó
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Perdió
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	4.1¢	Perdió
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Perdió
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Perdió
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$1	34.0¢	Ganó
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Perdió
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$2	13.5¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	40.1¢	Ganó
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$1	55.1¢	Ganó
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	$2	68.5¢	Ganó
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Perdió
Kings vs. Kraken	Kings	$3	71.0¢	Ganó
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$6	63.7¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$25	13.1¢	Perdió
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	$2	63.9¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Perdió
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?	No	$1	7.4¢	Perdió
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Perdió
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Perdió
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Perdió
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	43.0¢	Ganó
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Perdió
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Ganó
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Perdió

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 2.5¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Ganó
No$5 @ 60.2¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 22.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$125 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$75 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Perdió
Yes$4 @ 15.9¢
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Perdió
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25?Ganó
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$4 @ 5.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 7.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$36 @ 34.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?Perdió
No$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Ganó
No$1 @ 15.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Ganó
Yes$24 @ 2.0¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Ganó
No$1 @ 51.0¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Perdió
Yes$5 @ 4.1¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 34.0¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Perdió
Yes$2 @ 13.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$5 @ 40.1¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 55.1¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 68.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Kings vs. KrakenGanó
Kings$3 @ 71.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Ganó
Yes$6 @ 63.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Perdió
Yes$25 @ 13.1¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Ganó
Yes$2 @ 63.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?Perdió
No$1 @ 7.4¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$1 @ 43.0¢
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Ganó
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢

Operaciones recientes

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Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolítica	Yes	$114	15.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Política	Yes	$66	55.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Política	Yes	$42	48.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Política	No	$27	71.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Política	Yes	$26	53.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Política	No	$21	47.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Política	No	$20	62.8¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Política	No	$9	90.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Política	Yes	$9	47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Política	No	$3	40.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Economía	Yes	$2	43.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Política	No	$1	91.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	Política	Yes	$1	3.0¢
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Negocios	Yes	$1	90.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?	Política	No	$1	94.1¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Política	No	$1	98.1¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?	Economía	No	$1	96.7¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?	Política	No	$1	95.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$1	61.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$1	91.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	—	No	$1	91.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Política	No	$1	93.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economía	No	$1	59.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Política	Yes	$1	5.6¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$1	2.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Política	Yes	$1	6.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolítica
Yes$114 @ 15.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Política
Yes$66 @ 55.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Política
Yes$42 @ 48.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Política
No$27 @ 71.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Política
Yes$26 @ 53.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Política
No$21 @ 47.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Política
No$20 @ 62.8¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Política
No$9 @ 90.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Política
Yes$9 @ 47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Política
No$3 @ 40.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Economía
Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Política
No$1 @ 91.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?Política
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?Negocios
Yes$1 @ 90.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?Política
No$1 @ 94.1¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Política
No$1 @ 98.1¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?Economía
No$1 @ 96.7¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?Política
No$1 @ 95.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?—
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$1 @ 91.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?—
No$1 @ 91.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?Política
No$1 @ 93.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economía
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Política
Yes$1 @ 5.6¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Política
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Política
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢