0x407d…1bae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x407dd149f1e92c91d0053e0240e03318a1e01bae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

+7.8pp

ROI

+28%

Tasa de acierto

42% @ 33.8¢

Brier

0.182

Resueltas

1555

Tamaño med.

$244

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Other	47% (30/64)	+6%	64
Política	55% (32/58)	+45%	58
Deportes	21% (3/14)	+68%	14
Geopolítica	56% (5/9)	-55%	9
Cripto	44% (4/9)	+32%	9
Tecnología	75% (3/4)	+10%	4

Other64 apuestas
Tasa acierto
47% (30/64)
ROI
+6%
Política58 apuestas
Tasa acierto
55% (32/58)
ROI
+45%
Deportes14 apuestas
Tasa acierto
21% (3/14)
ROI
+68%
Geopolítica9 apuestas
Tasa acierto
56% (5/9)
ROI
-55%
Cripto9 apuestas
Tasa acierto
44% (4/9)
ROI
+32%
Tecnología4 apuestas
Tasa acierto
75% (3/4)
ROI
+10%

Historial

49% acierto · 77/158

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	$2.7k	91.0¢	Ganó
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	$625	62.5¢	Ganó
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?	Yes	$233	17.9¢	Perdió
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$1.7k	48.6¢	Perdió
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$2.9k	48.6¢	Ganó
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines	Arizona Wildcats	$20	0.1¢	Perdió
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$744	66.7¢	Ganó
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.7k	8.7¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$7.8k	74.4¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$22.7k	20.6¢	Perdió
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$606	18.4¢	Perdió
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$1.2k	60.0¢	Perdió
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$474	20.9¢	Ganó
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$2.5k	84.3¢	Ganó
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3.1k	16.1¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.5k	75.9¢	Ganó
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$300	10.0¢	Perdió
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1.5k	75.0¢	Ganó
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	20.6¢	Perdió
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$3.1k	82.3¢	Ganó
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$128	64.0¢	Perdió
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$3.3k	53.0¢	Ganó
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$128	6.4¢	Perdió
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?	No	$3	0.1¢	Perdió
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$269	27.8¢	Ganó
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$320	15.2¢	Perdió
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$550	1.1¢	Perdió
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	78.0¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$6.0k	15.1¢	Perdió
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$947	83.1¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	23.0¢	Perdió
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.1k	27.7¢	Ganó
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$7.7k	33.1¢	Perdió
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.5k	3.1¢	Perdió
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines	Connecticut Huskies	$11	27.0¢	Perdió
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$588	11.8¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$3.1k	20.7¢	Perdió
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$554	61.6¢	Perdió
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	$397	18.6¢	Perdió
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$1.9k	73.7¢	Ganó
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$438	47.5¢	Perdió
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$14	0.4¢	Perdió
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$5.1k	64.4¢	Ganó
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	$25	21.8¢	Perdió
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.6k	8.0¢	Perdió
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$14.9k	74.8¢	Ganó
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$2.8k	55.0¢	Perdió
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$1.1k	23.0¢	Perdió
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	No	$710	70.0¢	Ganó
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	$4.1k	81.1¢	Ganó

Iran leadership change by September 30?Ganó
No$2.7k @ 91.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Ganó
No$625 @ 62.5¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?Perdió
Yes$233 @ 17.9¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Perdió
Yes$1.7k @ 48.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Ganó
Yes$2.9k @ 48.6¢
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesPerdió
Arizona Wildcats$20 @ 0.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Ganó
Yes$744 @ 66.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
Yes$1.7k @ 8.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$7.8k @ 74.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$22.7k @ 20.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Perdió
Yes$606 @ 18.4¢
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?Perdió
Yes$1.2k @ 60.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Ganó
Yes$474 @ 20.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Ganó
No$2.5k @ 84.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Perdió
Yes$3.1k @ 16.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Ganó
No$1.5k @ 75.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Perdió
Yes$300 @ 10.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Ganó
No$1.5k @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$2.1k @ 20.6¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Ganó
Yes$3.1k @ 82.3¢
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?Perdió
Yes$128 @ 64.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Ganó
No$3.3k @ 53.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Perdió
Yes$128 @ 6.4¢
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?Perdió
No$3 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Ganó
Yes$269 @ 27.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Perdió
Yes$320 @ 15.2¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
Yes$550 @ 1.1¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Ganó
Yes$1.1k @ 78.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Perdió
Yes$6.0k @ 15.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Ganó
No$947 @ 83.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1.1k @ 23.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$5.1k @ 27.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Perdió
Yes$7.7k @ 33.1¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
Yes$2.5k @ 3.1¢
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan WolverinesPerdió
Connecticut Huskies$11 @ 27.0¢
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?Perdió
Yes$588 @ 11.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Perdió
Yes$3.1k @ 20.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Perdió
No$554 @ 61.6¢
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?Perdió
No$397 @ 18.6¢
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?Ganó
No$1.9k @ 73.7¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Perdió
No$438 @ 47.5¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Perdió
Yes$14 @ 0.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Ganó
No$5.1k @ 64.4¢
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Perdió
No$25 @ 21.8¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Perdió
Yes$1.6k @ 8.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Ganó
Yes$14.9k @ 74.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Perdió
Yes$2.8k @ 55.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Perdió
Yes$1.1k @ 23.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Ganó
No$710 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Ganó
No$4.1k @ 81.1¢

Operaciones recientes

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Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$20.0k	50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Política	No	$20.0k	50.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Política	No	$4.6k	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Política	No	$4.0k	80.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Política	Yes	$3.0k	59.5¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Cripto	No	$1.2k	19.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$1.1k	17.9¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Política	Yes	$1.0k	34.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$710	14.2¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Tecnología	Yes	$610	61.0¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Política	Yes	$255	2.5¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Política	Yes	$170	17.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?	Tecnología	Yes	$35	9.0¢
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Política	Yes	$15	38.5¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Política	No	$10	52.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Política	Yes	$1	60.0¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Política
Yes$20.0k @ 50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Política
No$20.0k @ 50.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Política
No$4.6k @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Política
No$4.0k @ 80.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Política
Yes$3.0k @ 59.5¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Cripto
No$1.2k @ 19.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Política
Yes$1.1k @ 17.9¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Política
Yes$1.0k @ 34.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Política
Yes$710 @ 14.2¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tecnología
Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Política
Yes$255 @ 2.5¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Política
Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?Tecnología
Yes$35 @ 9.0¢
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Política
Yes$15 @ 38.5¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Política
No$10 @ 52.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Política
Yes$1 @ 60.0¢