0x3bf2…70a4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3bf2b9b5801d3171314aa9a3d685de9fff4370a4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Experto

Ventaja

+8.0pp

ROI

+10%

Tasa de acierto

48% @ 40.4¢

Brier

0.154

Resueltas

993

Tamaño med.

$18

Tendencia ROI

Especialización por esfera

Esfera	Tasa acierto	ROI	Apuestas
Política	45% (34/76)	+7%	76
Other	40% (22/55)	+63%	55
Geopolítica	46% (23/50)	+6%	50
Tecnología	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Política76 apuestas
Tasa acierto
45% (34/76)
ROI
+7%
Other55 apuestas
Tasa acierto
40% (22/55)
ROI
+63%
Geopolítica50 apuestas
Tasa acierto
46% (23/50)
ROI
+6%
Tecnología4 apuestas
Tasa acierto
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

Historial

43% acierto · 79/185

Mercado	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada	Resultado
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Perdió
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$31	28.2¢	Ganó
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	$108	90.0¢	Ganó
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$31	26.2¢	Perdió
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	$13	92.0¢	Ganó
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$170	67.8¢	Ganó
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	$28	18.7¢	Perdió
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	$42	54.4¢	Ganó
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Perdió
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	$358	89.4¢	Ganó
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$58	58.0¢	Ganó
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	$530	88.3¢	Ganó
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$158	97.6¢	Ganó
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Perdió
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$18	35.0¢	Perdió
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$25	38.0¢	Ganó
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	$48	91.8¢	Ganó
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	Yes	$495	99.1¢	Ganó
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	Yes	$30	6.0¢	Perdió
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$82	82.0¢	Ganó
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	No	$77	76.5¢	Ganó
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Perdió
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$42	35.3¢	Perdió
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$16	16.5¢	Perdió
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$7	27.0¢	Ganó
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Perdió
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?	Yes	$38	95.5¢	Ganó
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.6¢	Perdió
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$4	5.2¢	Perdió
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$10	6.2¢	Perdió
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Perdió
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$7	71.0¢	Ganó
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$27	88.9¢	Perdió
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$70	69.5¢	Ganó
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$34	22.9¢	Perdió
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$123	61.2¢	Perdió
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$21	17.7¢	Ganó
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$25	39.0¢	Ganó
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$57	64.3¢	Perdió
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Perdió
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$59	22.4¢	Ganó
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$43	15.2¢	Perdió
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$11	21.0¢	Perdió
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$158	85.7¢	Ganó
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$215	29.9¢	Perdió
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$10	84.0¢	Ganó
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Perdió
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$8	15.9¢	Perdió
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$16	22.2¢	Ganó
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$10	14.5¢	Perdió

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Perdió
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Ganó
Yes$31 @ 28.2¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Ganó
No$108 @ 90.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Perdió
Yes$31 @ 26.2¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ganó
No$13 @ 92.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ganó
No$170 @ 67.8¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Perdió
Yes$28 @ 18.7¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Ganó
Yes$42 @ 54.4¢
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Perdió
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?Ganó
Yes$358 @ 89.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ganó
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ganó
Yes$530 @ 88.3¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Ganó
Yes$158 @ 97.6¢
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Perdió
Yes$18 @ 35.0¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Ganó
Yes$25 @ 38.0¢
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Ganó
No$48 @ 91.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?Ganó
Yes$495 @ 99.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?Perdió
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Ganó
No$82 @ 82.0¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Ganó
No$77 @ 76.5¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Perdió
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Perdió
Yes$42 @ 35.3¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Perdió
Yes$16 @ 16.5¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Ganó
Yes$7 @ 27.0¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?Ganó
Yes$38 @ 95.5¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Perdió
Yes$4 @ 5.2¢
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Perdió
Yes$10 @ 6.2¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Perdió
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Ganó
No$7 @ 71.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Perdió
Yes$27 @ 88.9¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Ganó
Yes$70 @ 69.5¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Perdió
Yes$34 @ 22.9¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Perdió
Yes$123 @ 61.2¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Ganó
No$21 @ 17.7¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Ganó
No$25 @ 39.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Perdió
Yes$57 @ 64.3¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Perdió
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Ganó
Yes$59 @ 22.4¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Perdió
Yes$43 @ 15.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Perdió
Yes$11 @ 21.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Ganó
No$158 @ 85.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Perdió
Yes$215 @ 29.9¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Ganó
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Perdió
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Perdió
Yes$8 @ 15.9¢
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Ganó
Yes$16 @ 22.2¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Perdió
Yes$10 @ 14.5¢

Operaciones recientes

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Cargando operaciones recientes…

Posiciones actuales

Mercado	Esfera	Resultado	Tamaño	Entrada
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be 5,100,000 or more?	Política	No	$1.0k	80.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election?	Política	No	$966	92.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 45%-50%?	Política	No	$588	75.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be less than 3,900,000?	Política	No	$483	89.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 18% or more?	Política	No	$403	90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 30% or more?	Política	No	$329	87.7¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?	Política	No	$301	85.5¢
Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be less than 3,600,000?	Política	No	$296	90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 30%-35%?	Política	No	$286	72.8¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Política	Yes	$266	34.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?	Política	No	$246	89.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?	Política	No	$235	90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 50% or more?	Política	No	$234	89.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be less than 900,000?	Política	No	$234	87.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-08 House election by 3% or more?	Política	No	$215	89.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 3%-6%?	Política	No	$210	84.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?	Política	No	$202	93.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 5%-10%?	Política	No	$199	86.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?	Política	Yes	$198	19.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?	Política	Yes	$195	14.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-01 House election by 18%-21%?	Política	No	$190	86.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-11 House election by 20%-25%?	Política	Yes	$184	20.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-02 House election by 50% or more?	Política	No	$170	88.1¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be less than 1,000,000?	Política	No	$166	95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?	Política	No	$165	88.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Política	Yes	$148	17.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 12% or more?	Política	No	$137	92.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,275,000 and 1,350,000?	Política	No	$131	87.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Política	Yes	$131	16.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-03 House election by 3%-6%?	Política	Yes	$120	17.1¢

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be 5,100,000 or more?Política
No$1.0k @ 80.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election?Política
No$966 @ 92.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 45%-50%?Política
No$588 @ 75.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be less than 3,900,000?Política
No$483 @ 89.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 18% or more?Política
No$403 @ 90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 30% or more?Política
No$329 @ 87.7¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?Política
No$301 @ 85.5¢
Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be less than 3,600,000?Política
No$296 @ 90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 30%-35%?Política
No$286 @ 72.8¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Política
Yes$266 @ 34.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?Política
No$246 @ 89.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?Política
No$235 @ 90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 50% or more?Política
No$234 @ 89.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be less than 900,000?Política
No$234 @ 87.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-08 House election by 3% or more?Política
No$215 @ 89.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 3%-6%?Política
No$210 @ 84.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?Política
No$202 @ 93.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 5%-10%?Política
No$199 @ 86.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?Política
Yes$198 @ 19.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?Política
Yes$195 @ 14.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-01 House election by 18%-21%?Política
No$190 @ 86.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-11 House election by 20%-25%?Política
Yes$184 @ 20.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-02 House election by 50% or more?Política
No$170 @ 88.1¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be less than 1,000,000?Política
No$166 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?Política
No$165 @ 88.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Política
Yes$148 @ 17.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 12% or more?Política
No$137 @ 92.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,275,000 and 1,350,000?Política
No$131 @ 87.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?Política
Yes$131 @ 16.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-03 House election by 3%-6%?Política
Yes$120 @ 17.1¢