0x2b67…b814

Профі

Едж

+7.6pp

ROI

+46%

Частка перемог

37% @ 29.1¢

Brier

0.117

Угод

2822

Сер. розмір

$101

Динаміка ROI

Спеціалізація за сферами

Сфера	Влучання	ROI	Ставки
Технології	44% (39/89)	+9%	89
Other	31% (26/85)	+5%	85
Політика	47% (36/77)	-3%	77
Спорт	19% (5/26)	-67%	26
Геополітика	25% (3/12)	+10%	12
Економіка	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Наука	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Крипто	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Бізнес	100% (1/1)	+163%	1

Технології89 ставки
Влучання
44% (39/89)
ROI
+9%
Other85 ставки
Влучання
31% (26/85)
ROI
+5%
Політика77 ставки
Влучання
47% (36/77)
ROI
-3%
Спорт26 ставки
Влучання
19% (5/26)
ROI
-67%
Геополітика12 ставки
Влучання
25% (3/12)
ROI
+10%
Економіка2 ставки
Влучання
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Наука1 ставки
Влучання
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Крипто1 ставки
Влучання
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Бізнес1 ставки
Влучання
100% (1/1)
ROI
+163%

Історія результатів

37% влучень · 110/294

Ринок	Результат	Розмір	Вхід	Підсумок
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	$29	29.7¢	Перемога
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	$1.1k	94.8¢	Перемога
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	$213	43.1¢	Перемога
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 7, 2026?	No	$15	3.5¢	Поразка
LAPTOP FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	$90	6.6¢	Поразка
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 6, 2026?	Yes	$277	9.0¢	Поразка
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$170	17.0¢	Поразка
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?	Yes	$216	95.1¢	Поразка
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	$80	8.0¢	Поразка
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	87.0¢	Перемога
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	No	$150	30.0¢	Поразка
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	$226	22.6¢	Поразка
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?	No	$52	8.0¢	Поразка
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026?	Yes	$13	5.1¢	Поразка
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$51	18.9¢	Поразка
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026?	Yes	$10	4.5¢	Поразка
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 7, 2026?	Yes	$20	2.0¢	Поразка
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?	No	$238	38.2¢	Поразка
Will 4 Minutes be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	Yes	$18	4.5¢	Поразка
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	32.8¢	Поразка
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$28	27.8¢	Перемога
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	83.0¢	Поразка
Will "4 Minutes" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Поразка
Will "Sorry" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Поразка
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	8.5¢	Поразка
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?	Yes	$432	62.4¢	Перемога
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$250	50.0¢	Поразка
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$500	50.0¢	Перемога
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?	No	$96	1.1¢	Поразка
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?	Yes	$41	34.3¢	Перемога
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?	Yes	$243	58.0¢	Перемога
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?	Yes	$149	3.3¢	Поразка
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?	No	$497	82.0¢	Перемога
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026?	No	$1.3k	93.9¢	Перемога
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?	Yes	$617	93.1¢	Перемога
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14	Yes	$792	39.6¢	Перемога
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?	Yes	$180	9.9¢	Поразка
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	$6	34.9¢	Перемога
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	No	$5.2k	99.5¢	Перемога
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$181	4.5¢	Поразка
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	$300	40.0¢	Поразка
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$329	7.9¢	Поразка
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$524	18.5¢	Поразка
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	No	$360	72.0¢	Перемога
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	$58	38.6¢	Поразка
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 5, 2026?	Yes	$37	34.9¢	Поразка
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$57	51.5¢	Перемога
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	$315	35.0¢	Перемога
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	$995	85.6¢	Перемога
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$1.0k	88.7¢	Перемога

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?Перемога
Yes$29 @ 29.7¢
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Перемога
Yes$1.1k @ 94.8¢
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Перемога
Yes$213 @ 43.1¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) be released on October 7, 2026?Поразка
No$15 @ 3.5¢
LAPTOP FDV above $2B one day after launch?Поразка
Yes$90 @ 6.6¢
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 6, 2026?Поразка
Yes$277 @ 9.0¢
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?Поразка
Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?Поразка
Yes$216 @ 95.1¢
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?Поразка
No$80 @ 8.0¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Перемога
Yes$11 @ 87.0¢
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Поразка
No$150 @ 30.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Поразка
Yes$226 @ 22.6¢
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?Поразка
No$52 @ 8.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026?Поразка
Yes$13 @ 5.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Поразка
Yes$51 @ 18.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026?Поразка
Yes$10 @ 4.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 7, 2026?Поразка
Yes$20 @ 2.0¢
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Поразка
No$238 @ 38.2¢
Will 4 Minutes be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?Поразка
Yes$18 @ 4.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?Поразка
Yes$1.8k @ 32.8¢
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Перемога
No$28 @ 27.8¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?Поразка
Yes$1.7k @ 83.0¢
Will "4 Minutes" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?Поразка
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will "Sorry" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?Поразка
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?Поразка
Yes$50 @ 8.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?Перемога
Yes$432 @ 62.4¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Поразка
Yes$250 @ 50.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Перемога
Yes$500 @ 50.0¢
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Поразка
No$96 @ 1.1¢
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Перемога
Yes$41 @ 34.3¢
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?Перемога
Yes$243 @ 58.0¢
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?Поразка
Yes$149 @ 3.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?Перемога
No$497 @ 82.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026?Перемога
No$1.3k @ 93.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?Перемога
Yes$617 @ 93.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Перемога
Yes$792 @ 39.6¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?Поразка
Yes$180 @ 9.9¢
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Перемога
Yes$6 @ 34.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Перемога
No$5.2k @ 99.5¢
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Поразка
Yes$181 @ 4.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Поразка
Yes$300 @ 40.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Поразка
Yes$329 @ 7.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?Поразка
Yes$524 @ 18.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Перемога
No$360 @ 72.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?Поразка
Yes$58 @ 38.6¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 5, 2026?Поразка
Yes$37 @ 34.9¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?Перемога
Yes$57 @ 51.5¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Перемога
Yes$315 @ 35.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?Перемога
Yes$995 @ 85.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Перемога
No$1.0k @ 88.7¢

Останні угоди

у реальному часі з Polymarket · натисніть на стовпець для сортування

Завантаження останніх угод…

Поточні позиції

Ринок	Сфера	Результат	Розмір	Вхід
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Технології	Yes	$8.5k	10.9¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Технології	Yes	$5.3k	43.9¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Технології	Yes	$5.2k	12.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Політика	Yes	$4.2k	47.7¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Технології	No	$4.1k	51.5¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Спорт	No	$3.4k	24.4¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$3.1k	38.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Технології	Yes	$2.7k	10.2¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Технології	OpenAI	$2.5k	9.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Технології	No	$2.3k	8.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Політика	Yes	$2.3k	22.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Політика	Yes	$2.2k	46.3¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Технології	Yes	$2.1k	11.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.8k	32.8¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.8k	50.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Геополітика	Yes	$1.6k	7.1¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Політика	Yes	$1.5k	60.8¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Технології	Yes	$1.3k	44.9¢
Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Спорт	Yes	$1.1k	14.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Політика	Yes	$1.1k	7.4¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Політика	Yes	$1.1k	54.0¢
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Спорт	No	$970	7.4¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Технології	No	$900	23.7¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	—	No	$888	52.6¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp	—	Botic van de Zandschulp	$839	16.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?	—	No	$791	13.9¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Економіка	No	$758	6.9¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Спорт	Yes	$754	3.8¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Політика	Yes	$678	14.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Бізнес	Yes	$677	27.3¢

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Технології
Yes$8.5k @ 10.9¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Технології
Yes$5.3k @ 43.9¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Технології
Yes$5.2k @ 12.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Політика
Yes$4.2k @ 47.7¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Технології
No$4.1k @ 51.5¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Спорт
No$3.4k @ 24.4¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$3.1k @ 38.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Технології
Yes$2.7k @ 10.2¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Технології
OpenAI$2.5k @ 9.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Технології
No$2.3k @ 8.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Політика
Yes$2.3k @ 22.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Політика
Yes$2.2k @ 46.3¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Технології
Yes$2.1k @ 11.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?—
Yes$1.8k @ 32.8¢
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.8k @ 50.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Геополітика
Yes$1.6k @ 7.1¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Політика
Yes$1.5k @ 60.8¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Технології
Yes$1.3k @ 44.9¢
Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Спорт
Yes$1.1k @ 14.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Політика
Yes$1.1k @ 7.4¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Політика
Yes$1.1k @ 54.0¢
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Спорт
No$970 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Технології
No$900 @ 23.7¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?—
No$888 @ 52.6¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp—
Botic van de Zandschulp$839 @ 16.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?—
No$791 @ 13.9¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Економіка
No$758 @ 6.9¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Спорт
Yes$754 @ 3.8¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Політика
Yes$678 @ 14.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Бізнес
Yes$677 @ 27.3¢