Консенсус ринку

Де відстежувані профі концентрують переконаність, згруповано за ринком та результатом.

Історія результатів · накопичується

Коли ≥1 відстежуваних профі підтримують той самий результат — ось як він вирішувався:

Влучання: 40%
Закладено: 42%
Перевага: -2.2pp
Вибірка: 984
ROI, рівні ставки: -32%
ROI, за доларами: +3%

Але 95% інтервал — -5.2 to +0.9pp — усе ще включає нуль, тобто це в межах шуму. Поки не доведено.

Дані фіксуються за фактом вирішення ринку. Лише частка влучань вводить в оману (розумні гроші набирають дешеві малоймовірні результати), тож ми вимірюємо перевагу над закладеною в ціну ймовірністю. Ми публікуємо довірчий інтервал, а не лише точкову оцінку: вибірка ще молода й зростає, і ми не назвемо це перевагою, поки цифри її не підтвердять.

Завершення за

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▸	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Розкол No 50%Yes 50%	6	$386.2k	76.8¢	29mo
▸	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Сильний No 99%Yes 1%	13	$130.7k	81.5¢	7mo
▸	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Сильний No 99%Yes 1%	12	$128.8k	96.5¢	18d
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▸	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Сильний No 94%Yes 6%	15	$86.1k	80.5¢	17d
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▸	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Розкол Yes 50%No 50%	4	$78.4k	2.1¢	29mo
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▸	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	1	$15.4k	99.8¢	18d
▸	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	1	$14.9k	93.5¢	7mo
▸	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Сильний No 99%Yes 1%	2	$14.9k	78.5¢	7mo
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▸	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	2	$14.8k	92.5¢	7mo
▸	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Сильний No 98%Yes 2%	2	$15.0k	45.5¢	7mo
▸	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Одностайно Yes 100%	2	$14.7k	99.9¢	19mo
▸	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Одностайно No 100%	4	$14.7k	90.5¢	17d
▸	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	4	$14.4k	80.0¢	7mo
▸	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	6	$14.3k	58.5¢	6mo
▸	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Сильний Yes 98%No 2%	10	$14.5k	8.3¢	1mo
▸	Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	2	$14.1k	95.5¢	7mo
▸	Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Сильний Yes 99%No 1%	3	$14.2k	98.5¢	15d
▸	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Одностайно Yes 100%	8	$13.7k	4.5¢	1mo
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▸	Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?	Одностайно Yes 100%	1	$12.7k	93.3¢	14d
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▸	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Одностайно Yes 100%	11	$12.5k	7.8¢	1mo
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▸	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Одностайно Yes 100%	2	$12.1k	5.3¢	29mo
▸	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Одностайно No 100%	1	$12.1k	85.5¢	15d
▸	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Перевіс Yes 66%No 34%	3	$17.9k	12.5¢	7mo
▸	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Сильний No 98%Yes 2%	2	$11.9k	89.5¢	7mo
▸	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Одностайно No 100%	5	$11.5k	93.8¢	7mo
▸	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Сильний No 95%Yes 5%	7	$12.0k	93.0¢	17d
▸	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Одностайно No 100%	4	$11.4k	99.1¢	17d
▸	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Одностайно Yes 100%	5	$11.2k	8.8¢	29mo
▸	Trump out as President before 2027?	Одностайно No 100%	4	$10.8k	90.5¢	7mo
▸	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Сильний No 93%Yes 7%	4	$11.6k	97.9¢	17d
▸	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Сильний Yes 99%No 1%	5	$10.7k	11.1¢	17d
▸	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Одностайно Yes 100%	3	$10.6k	99.9¢	19mo
▸	Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Одностайно No 100%	1	$10.6k	79.5¢	15d
▸	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Сильний Yes 100%No 0%	3	$9.9k	67.0¢	15d
▸	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Одностайно Yes 100%	3	$9.5k	99.5¢	2mo
▸	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Розкол Yes 55%No 45%	6	$17.2k	53.0¢	7mo
▸	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Одностайно Yes 100%	3	$9.3k	0.8¢	29mo
▸	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Сильний Yes 92%No 8%	5	$10.1k	87.5¢	9d
▸	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	2	$9.2k	94.0¢	7mo
▸	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	2	$9.0k	92.5¢	7mo
▸	Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	Одностайно Yes 100%	1	$8.9k	99.5¢	1mo
▸	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Перевіс Yes 70%No 30%	4	$12.7k	7.5¢	17d
▸	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	5	$8.8k	65.5¢	5mo
▸	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Одностайно No 100%	4	$8.5k	89.5¢	7mo
▸	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	Одностайно No 100%	1	$8.4k	99.7¢	18d
▸	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Розкол No 57%Yes 43%	7	$14.7k	76.5¢	7mo
▸	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Одностайно No 100%	1	$8.3k	80.5¢	12d