0xff91…ab3a

Профи

Эдж

+6.9pp

ROI

+23%

Доля побед

49% @ 42.5¢

Brier

0.183

Сделок

1147

Ср. размер

$78

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	52% (34/65)	+48%	65
Other	54% (29/54)	+3%	54
Геополитика	27% (3/11)	-74%	11
Технологии	30% (3/10)	-24%	10
Спорт	29% (2/7)	-39%	7
Крипто	100% (1/1)	+222%	1

Политика65 ставки
Попадания
52% (34/65)
ROI
+48%
Other54 ставки
Попадания
54% (29/54)
ROI
+3%
Геополитика11 ставки
Попадания
27% (3/11)
ROI
-74%
Технологии10 ставки
Попадания
30% (3/10)
ROI
-24%
Спорт7 ставки
Попадания
29% (2/7)
ROI
-39%
Крипто1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+222%

История результатов

49% попаданий · 72/148

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$189	5.7¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$21	86.3¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$32	8.0¢	Поражение
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$176	10.1¢	Поражение
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$110	39.2¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	18.4¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$6	15.2¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$411	49.6¢	Поражение
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1.3k	67.9¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$383	88.2¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$67	41.0¢	Победа
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$98	87.8¢	Победа
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.7k	79.7¢	Победа
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$186	53.9¢	Поражение
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$47	49.0¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$17	13.7¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$1.0k	54.5¢	Победа
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	$353	52.1¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$69	19.7¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$332	17.9¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$3.3k	25.5¢	Поражение
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$62	31.1¢	Победа
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$81	2.9¢	Поражение
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$361	36.1¢	Поражение
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Spain	$270	66.8¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$547	19.7¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$224	8.3¢	Поражение
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$42	76.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$788	63.6¢	Победа
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$40	10.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$166	37.6¢	Поражение
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$35	16.1¢	Победа
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$603	86.1¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$1.0k	21.8¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?	No	$9	0.8¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$373	59.8¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$604	26.8¢	Победа
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$714	54.8¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$40	13.4¢	Поражение
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$336	57.6¢	Победа
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$129	10.2¢	Поражение
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$267	76.4¢	Победа
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$84	14.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.8k	42.6¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$168	42.0¢	Поражение
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$1.9k	76.1¢	Победа
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$139	15.4¢	Поражение
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	$320	80.0¢	Победа
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$181	63.0¢	Победа
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	$84	14.0¢	Поражение

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$189 @ 5.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Поражение
No$21 @ 86.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Поражение
Yes$32 @ 8.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Поражение
Yes$176 @ 10.1¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Победа
No$110 @ 39.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2.6k @ 18.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 15.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Поражение
Yes$411 @ 49.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Победа
Yes$1.3k @ 67.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Победа
No$383 @ 88.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$67 @ 41.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Победа
No$98 @ 87.8¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Победа
No$1.7k @ 79.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Поражение
Yes$186 @ 53.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Поражение
Yes$47 @ 49.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Поражение
No$17 @ 13.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Победа
Yes$1.0k @ 54.5¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Победа
No$353 @ 52.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Поражение
Yes$69 @ 19.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Поражение
Yes$332 @ 17.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$3.3k @ 25.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$62 @ 31.1¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$81 @ 2.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Поражение
Yes$361 @ 36.1¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceПобеда
Spain$270 @ 66.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$547 @ 19.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Поражение
Yes$224 @ 8.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Поражение
No$42 @ 76.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$788 @ 63.6¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Поражение
Yes$166 @ 37.6¢
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$35 @ 16.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$603 @ 86.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Поражение
Yes$1.0k @ 21.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Поражение
No$9 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Поражение
No$373 @ 59.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Победа
Yes$604 @ 26.8¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$714 @ 54.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 13.4¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Победа
Yes$336 @ 57.6¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$129 @ 10.2¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Победа
No$267 @ 76.4¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Поражение
Yes$84 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$3.8k @ 42.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Поражение
No$168 @ 42.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Победа
No$1.9k @ 76.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Поражение
Yes$139 @ 15.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Победа
Yes$320 @ 80.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Победа
Yes$181 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?Поражение
Yes$84 @ 14.0¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$3.7k	69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$2.9k	77.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Политика	Yes	$1.9k	72.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.6k	59.1¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Технологии	No	$1.6k	73.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$958	79.8¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Технологии	No	$603	86.2¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$598	85.4¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Политика	No	$487	81.2¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	—	No	$432	38.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	—	No	$346	86.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$324	81.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	—	No	$317	63.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	No	$280	70.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Политика	No	$270	90.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Политика	No	$267	89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	—	Yes	$260	65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$246	55.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Политика	Yes	$176	35.2¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	—	No	$171	87.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$156	34.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Политика	No	$150	75.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Политика	No	$142	71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	Yes	$133	12.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$124	29.7¢
US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$105	34.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$89	19.4¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Политика	No	$85	81.9¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	—	No	$76	34.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$69	23.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$3.7k @ 69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$2.9k @ 77.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Политика
Yes$1.9k @ 72.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$1.6k @ 59.1¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Технологии
No$1.6k @ 73.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
Yes$958 @ 79.8¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Технологии
No$603 @ 86.2¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$598 @ 85.4¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Политика
No$487 @ 81.2¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?—
No$432 @ 38.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?—
No$346 @ 86.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Политика
No$324 @ 81.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?—
No$317 @ 63.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
No$280 @ 70.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Политика
No$270 @ 90.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Политика
No$267 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?—
Yes$260 @ 65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$246 @ 55.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Политика
Yes$176 @ 35.2¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?—
No$171 @ 87.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$156 @ 34.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Политика
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Политика
No$142 @ 71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
Yes$133 @ 12.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$124 @ 29.7¢
US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$105 @ 34.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$89 @ 19.4¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Политика
No$85 @ 81.9¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?—
No$76 @ 34.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$69 @ 23.0¢