0xf7b3…eeb2

Прибыльный

Эдж

+5.3pp

ROI

+3%

Доля побед

71% @ 65.2¢

Brier

0.119

Сделок

2692

Ср. размер

$40

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	74% (90/122)	+6%	122
Политика	79% (54/68)	+8%	68
Геополитика	71% (10/14)	-24%	14
Экономика	33% (1/3)	+5%	3
Технологии	100% (2/2)	+19%	2

Other122 ставки
Попадания
74% (90/122)
ROI
+6%
Политика68 ставки
Попадания
79% (54/68)
ROI
+8%
Геополитика14 ставки
Попадания
71% (10/14)
ROI
-24%
Экономика3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
+5%
Технологии2 ставки
Попадания
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%

История результатов

75% попаданий · 157/209

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	$2.1k	83.7¢	Победа
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	$42	84.0¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	$281	77.0¢	Победа
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	$482	87.6¢	Победа
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Поражение
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	No	$115	87.6¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$1.2k	79.6¢	Победа
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$287	82.5¢	Победа
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	71.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$784	82.5¢	Победа
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	No	$291	80.2¢	Победа
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	$177	5.1¢	Поражение
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$965	80.7¢	Победа
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?	No	$44	88.0¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$1.2k	84.3¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$417	83.4¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	54.7¢	Победа
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	81.5¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.1k	85.5¢	Победа
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$2.9k	77.8¢	Победа
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?	No	$354	88.6¢	Победа
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$473	67.5¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$302	86.3¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$229	69.4¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$304	86.8¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$1.0k	69.1¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$213	31.3¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$418	83.6¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$80	80.0¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$502	88.0¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$133	88.3¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	$176	88.3¢	Победа
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$72	3.3¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	$666	83.3¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$13	4.3¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$215	71.7¢	Победа
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$213	85.2¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?	Yes	$33	65.0¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	$181	69.5¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$171	85.5¢	Победа
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$156	77.8¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$211	42.2¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	$44	88.0¢	Победа
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	No	$14	28.0¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$5	66.0¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$206	82.4¢	Победа
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	$195	6.3¢	Поражение
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?	No	$59	84.3¢	Победа
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$87	65.0¢	Поражение
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	No	$716	12.0¢	Поражение

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Победа
No$2.1k @ 83.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Победа
No$42 @ 84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Победа
No$281 @ 77.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?Победа
No$482 @ 87.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Победа
No$115 @ 87.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Победа
No$1.2k @ 79.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Победа
No$287 @ 82.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Поражение
Yes$1.1k @ 71.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$784 @ 82.5¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Победа
No$291 @ 80.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Поражение
No$177 @ 5.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Победа
No$965 @ 80.7¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?Победа
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Победа
No$1.2k @ 84.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$417 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.1k @ 54.7¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Победа
No$1.8k @ 81.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$1.1k @ 85.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Победа
No$2.9k @ 77.8¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Победа
No$354 @ 88.6¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$473 @ 67.5¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Победа
No$302 @ 86.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Победа
No$229 @ 69.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Победа
No$304 @ 86.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Поражение
No$1.0k @ 69.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Победа
Yes$213 @ 31.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$418 @ 83.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Победа
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$502 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Победа
No$133 @ 88.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Победа
No$176 @ 88.3¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Поражение
Yes$72 @ 3.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Победа
No$666 @ 83.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 4.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Победа
No$215 @ 71.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Победа
No$213 @ 85.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Победа
Yes$33 @ 65.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Победа
Yes$181 @ 69.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$171 @ 85.5¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Победа
No$156 @ 77.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$211 @ 42.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?Победа
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Поражение
No$14 @ 28.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Победа
Yes$5 @ 66.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Победа
Yes$206 @ 82.4¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Поражение
Yes$195 @ 6.3¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?Победа
No$59 @ 84.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Поражение
No$87 @ 65.0¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Поражение
No$716 @ 12.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Политика	No	$3.6k	74.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$2.8k	55.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$2.3k	74.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Политика	No	$1.4k	83.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$598	74.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Геополитика	No	$478	73.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$464	76.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$260	86.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Политика	Yes	$194	77.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$83	82.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$82	90.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Политика	No	$35	70.4¢

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Политика
No$3.6k @ 74.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Политика
Yes$2.8k @ 55.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$2.3k @ 74.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Политика
No$1.4k @ 83.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Геополитика
No$598 @ 74.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?Геополитика
No$478 @ 73.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$464 @ 76.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Политика
No$260 @ 86.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Политика
Yes$194 @ 77.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$83 @ 82.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Политика
No$82 @ 90.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Политика
No$35 @ 70.4¢