0xf26c…d5c5

Профи

Эдж

+13.3pp

ROI

+29%

Доля побед

57% @ 43.5¢

Brier

0.123

Сделок

1686

Ср. размер

$27

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	32% (98/306)	+20%	306
Other	37% (18/49)	+23%	49
Технологии	45% (5/11)	+1%	11
Геополитика	20% (1/5)	-41%	5
Спорт	33% (1/3)	-17%	3
Культура	100% (1/1)	+45%	1

Политика306 ставки
Попадания
32% (98/306)
ROI
+20%
Other49 ставки
Попадания
37% (18/49)
ROI
+23%
Технологии11 ставки
Попадания
45% (5/11)
ROI
+1%
Геополитика5 ставки
Попадания
20% (1/5)
ROI
-41%
Спорт3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
-17%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+45%

История результатов

33% попаданий · 124/375

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Поражение
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	$24	47.0¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 0%-10%?	Yes	$16	14.4¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 0%-10%?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 10%-15%?	No	$796	82.3¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-16 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	$38	3.6¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 6% or more?	Yes	$6	5.5¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-03 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	$5	25.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?	No	$13	58.0¢	Победа
Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?	Yes	$17	17.5¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-35 House election by 12% or more?	Yes	$20	12.8¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 3%-6%?	No	$78	77.3¢	Победа
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$13	13.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	$41	8.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-13 House election by 10%-15%?	No	$260	79.9¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 12% or more?	No	$130	86.0¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	$32	10.6¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$122	24.7¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?	No	$244	30.1¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 0%-5%?	Yes	$38	18.2¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-01 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	$12	6.1¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-09 House election by 3%-6%?	Yes	$1	2.7¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	No	$33	83.0¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 5%-10%?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Поражение
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Cincinnati Reds	$1	15.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 12% or more?	Yes	$24	4.2¢	Поражение
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$26	14.0¢	Поражение
Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)	FlyQuest	$62	35.0¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-04 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	$4	3.1¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	$42	16.9¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%?	No	$9	86.5¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	$16	15.7¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 15%-20%?	No	$2.0k	77.5¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 15%-18%?	Yes	$29	7.2¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-01 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	$9	11.0¢	Поражение
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?	No	$8	16.5¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-06 House election by 6%-9%?	No	$68	75.7¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-06 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	$60	22.1¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	$528	79.3¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Поражение
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 9%-12%?	Yes	$58	12.0¢	Поражение
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$25	1.6¢	Поражение
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	$7	13.0¢	Поражение
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	$58	57.0¢	Победа
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	No	$6	9.1¢	Поражение
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	$83	79.6¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 30%-35%?	No	$86	86.0¢	Победа
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	Los Angeles Dodgers	$6	30.5¢	Поражение

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 35%-40%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Победа
Yes$24 @ 47.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 0%-10%?Поражение
Yes$16 @ 14.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 0%-10%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 10%-15%?Победа
No$796 @ 82.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-16 House election by 10%-15%?Поражение
Yes$38 @ 3.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 6% or more?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 5.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-03 House election by 15%-20%?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?Победа
No$13 @ 58.0¢
Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?Поражение
Yes$17 @ 17.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-35 House election by 12% or more?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 12.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 3%-6%?Победа
No$78 @ 77.3¢
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Поражение
No$13 @ 13.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?Поражение
Yes$41 @ 8.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-13 House election by 10%-15%?Победа
No$260 @ 79.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 12% or more?Победа
No$130 @ 86.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 6%-9%?Поражение
Yes$32 @ 10.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Поражение
Yes$122 @ 24.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?Победа
No$244 @ 30.1¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 0%-5%?Победа
Yes$38 @ 18.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-01 House election by 50%-55%?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 6.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-09 House election by 3%-6%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Победа
No$33 @ 83.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 5%-10%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles DodgersПоражение
Cincinnati Reds$1 @ 15.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 12% or more?Поражение
Yes$24 @ 4.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Поражение
Yes$26 @ 14.0¢
Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)Победа
FlyQuest$62 @ 35.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-04 House election by 35%-40%?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 3.1¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 0%-3%?Поражение
Yes$42 @ 16.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%?Победа
No$9 @ 86.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%?Поражение
Yes$16 @ 15.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 15%-20%?Победа
No$2.0k @ 77.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 15%-18%?Поражение
Yes$29 @ 7.2¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-01 House election by 6%-9%?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 11.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?Поражение
No$8 @ 16.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-06 House election by 6%-9%?Победа
No$68 @ 75.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-06 House election by 6%-9%?Поражение
Yes$60 @ 22.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 0%-3%?Победа
No$528 @ 79.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 0%-3%?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 9%-12%?Поражение
Yes$58 @ 12.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Поражение
No$25 @ 1.6¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Поражение
Over$7 @ 13.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Победа
Under$58 @ 57.0¢
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?Поражение
No$6 @ 9.1¢
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?Победа
Yes$83 @ 79.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 30%-35%?Победа
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesПоражение
Los Angeles Dodgers$6 @ 30.5¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-04 House election by 0%-3%?	Политика	Yes	$550	66.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-07 House election by 20%-25%?	Политика	Yes	$480	81.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 25%-30%?	Политика	Yes	$440	69.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 20%-25%?	Политика	Yes	$432	75.2¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$389	2.8¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-36 House election by 45%-50%?	Политика	Yes	$333	82.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 60%-65%?	Политика	Yes	$302	77.2¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election by 15%-20%?	Политика	Yes	$288	70.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-07 House election by 70%-75%?	Политика	Yes	$272	67.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 3%-6%?	Политика	Yes	$268	49.4¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-28 House election by 35%-40%?	Политика	Yes	$246	79.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-06 House election by 15%-20%?	Политика	Yes	$239	79.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$219	28.6¢
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$214	1.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?	Политика	Yes	$206	38.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-02 House election by 3%-6%?	Политика	Yes	$203	61.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Политика	Yes	$195	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 6%-9%?	Политика	Yes	$190	69.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-08 House election by 0%-3%?	Политика	Yes	$190	43.4¢
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-05 House election by 0%-5%?	—	Yes	$189	45.1¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?	Политика	Yes	$188	19.9¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WA-03 House election by 6%-9%?	Политика	Yes	$184	82.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?	Политика	Yes	$183	19.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Политика	No	$180	40.0¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-03 House election by 15%-20%?	Политика	Yes	$175	69.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 60%-65%?	Политика	Yes	$168	79.8¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-45 House election by 20%-25%?	—	Yes	$165	75.6¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-52 House election by 40% or more?	Политика	Yes	$162	83.2¢
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-04 House election by 5%-10%?	—	Yes	$144	80.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-12 House election by 60%-65%?	Политика	Yes	$137	15.8¢

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-04 House election by 0%-3%?Политика
Yes$550 @ 66.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-07 House election by 20%-25%?Политика
Yes$480 @ 81.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 25%-30%?Политика
Yes$440 @ 69.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 20%-25%?Политика
Yes$432 @ 75.2¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$389 @ 2.8¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-36 House election by 45%-50%?Политика
Yes$333 @ 82.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 60%-65%?Политика
Yes$302 @ 77.2¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election by 15%-20%?Политика
Yes$288 @ 70.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-07 House election by 70%-75%?Политика
Yes$272 @ 67.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 3%-6%?Политика
Yes$268 @ 49.4¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-28 House election by 35%-40%?Политика
Yes$246 @ 79.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-06 House election by 15%-20%?Политика
Yes$239 @ 79.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?Политика
Yes$219 @ 28.6¢
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$214 @ 1.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?Политика
Yes$206 @ 38.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-02 House election by 3%-6%?Политика
Yes$203 @ 61.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-01 House election by 0%-3%?Политика
Yes$195 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 6%-9%?Политика
Yes$190 @ 69.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-08 House election by 0%-3%?Политика
Yes$190 @ 43.4¢
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-05 House election by 0%-5%?—
Yes$189 @ 45.1¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?Политика
Yes$188 @ 19.9¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WA-03 House election by 6%-9%?Политика
Yes$184 @ 82.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?Политика
Yes$183 @ 19.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?Политика
No$180 @ 40.0¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-03 House election by 15%-20%?Политика
Yes$175 @ 69.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 60%-65%?Политика
Yes$168 @ 79.8¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-45 House election by 20%-25%?—
Yes$165 @ 75.6¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-52 House election by 40% or more?Политика
Yes$162 @ 83.2¢
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-04 House election by 5%-10%?—
Yes$144 @ 80.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-12 House election by 60%-65%?Политика
Yes$137 @ 15.8¢