0xf192…6ee2

Прибыльный

Эдж

+7.1pp

ROI

+42%

Доля побед

54% @ 46.8¢

Brier

0.229

Сделок

469

Ср. размер

$165

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	55% (41/74)	+63%	74
Политика	52% (13/25)	+24%	25
Технологии	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Геополитика	100% (2/2)	+138%	2

Other74 ставки
Попадания
55% (41/74)
ROI
+63%
Политика25 ставки
Попадания
52% (13/25)
ROI
+24%
Технологии2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Геополитика2 ставки
Попадания
100% (2/2)
ROI
+138%

История результатов

54% попаданий · 56/103

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025?	Yes	$19	2.2¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$233	31.3¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$571	14.2¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$610	61.0¢	Победа
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	No	$71	6.1¢	Поражение
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	Yes	$1.0k	23.8¢	Победа
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Yes	$116	17.5¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1.0k	54.1¢	Поражение
Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday?	No	$89	89.0¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$234	30.0¢	Победа
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$321	82.3¢	Победа
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?	Yes	$176	29.9¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$325	79.8¢	Победа
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$8	0.8¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$1.9k	65.0¢	Победа
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$155	31.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	73.3¢	Победа
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$1.6k	68.2¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$742	23.7¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$6.7k	62.0¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?	Yes	$27	54.0¢	Поражение
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$579	54.8¢	Поражение
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$202	70.0¢	Победа
Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?	Yes	$50	37.7¢	Поражение
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$135	53.7¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$1.7k	87.0¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$350	20.6¢	Поражение
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?	Yes	$849	20.2¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?	Yes	$188	55.8¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$199	80.0¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?	Yes	$500	79.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$619	44.9¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$90	18.0¢	Поражение
Japan prime minister Ishiba out before July?	Yes	$99	10.7¢	Поражение
Iran strike on US military by February 28?	Yes	$62	82.0¢	Победа
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	$236	69.8¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$840	35.0¢	Победа
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$79	79.0¢	Поражение
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?	Yes	$100	26.3¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$218	4.5¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5.6k	63.4¢	Победа
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$11	42.0¢	Поражение
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	Yes	$401	22.7¢	Поражение
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$544	33.4¢	Победа
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$260	30.0¢	Победа
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$198	66.0¢	Победа
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$180	18.0¢	Поражение
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?	Yes	$100	77.0¢	Победа
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	No	$175	7.0¢	Поражение
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	36.0¢	Победа

Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025?Поражение
Yes$19 @ 2.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Победа
No$233 @ 31.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$571 @ 14.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Поражение
No$71 @ 6.1¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Победа
Yes$1.0k @ 23.8¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?Победа
Yes$116 @ 17.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Поражение
Yes$1.0k @ 54.1¢
Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday?Победа
No$89 @ 89.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Победа
Yes$234 @ 30.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$321 @ 82.3¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Победа
Yes$176 @ 29.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$325 @ 79.8¢
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Победа
No$1.9k @ 65.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$155 @ 31.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.5k @ 73.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Поражение
Yes$1.6k @ 68.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Поражение
No$742 @ 23.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Победа
Yes$6.7k @ 62.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?Поражение
Yes$27 @ 54.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Поражение
Yes$579 @ 54.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$202 @ 70.0¢
Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?Поражение
Yes$50 @ 37.7¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Победа
Yes$135 @ 53.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Победа
No$1.7k @ 87.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Поражение
Yes$350 @ 20.6¢
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?Победа
Yes$849 @ 20.2¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Победа
Yes$188 @ 55.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Победа
No$199 @ 80.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Победа
Yes$500 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Поражение
Yes$619 @ 44.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Поражение
Yes$90 @ 18.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out before July?Поражение
Yes$99 @ 10.7¢
Iran strike on US military by February 28?Победа
Yes$62 @ 82.0¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$236 @ 69.8¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$840 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Поражение
Yes$79 @ 79.0¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?Победа
Yes$100 @ 26.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Победа
Yes$218 @ 4.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$5.6k @ 63.4¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 42.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$401 @ 22.7¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$544 @ 33.4¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Победа
Yes$260 @ 30.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Победа
Yes$198 @ 66.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Поражение
Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?Победа
Yes$100 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$175 @ 7.0¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$14 @ 36.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	Технологии	Yes	$120	38.8¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$62	30.5¢

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?Технологии
Yes$120 @ 38.8¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$62 @ 30.5¢