0xeb7a…c291

Прибыльный

Эдж

-10.2pp

ROI

+3%

Доля побед

46% @ 56.2¢

Brier

0.159

Сделок

196

Ср. размер

$155

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	75% (27/36)	+50%	36
Политика	57% (4/7)	-55%	7
Технологии	100% (2/2)	+27%	2
Геополитика	100% (1/1)	+72%	1

Other36 ставки
Попадания
75% (27/36)
ROI
+50%
Политика7 ставки
Попадания
57% (4/7)
ROI
-55%
Технологии2 ставки
Попадания
100% (2/2)
ROI
+27%
Геополитика1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+72%

История результатов

74% попаданий · 34/46

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Orbán flip Magyar for Next Hungary PM by Jan 31?	No	$500	86.7¢	Победа
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$50	57.0¢	Поражение
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	Yes	$3.2k	42.1¢	Победа
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	Yes	$1.8k	77.5¢	Победа
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$355	58.1¢	Победа
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$50	88.9¢	Победа
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	$109	65.4¢	Победа
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	$7.4k	36.9¢	Поражение
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$201	86.8¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$298	58.0¢	Победа
Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$304	63.0¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?	No	$100	82.0¢	Поражение
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?	No	$150	78.3¢	Победа
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?	Yes	$1.2k	69.9¢	Победа
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$30	61.0¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$555	79.4¢	Победа
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$1.2k	37.8¢	Поражение
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?	No	$100	66.0¢	Победа
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$150	69.0¢	Победа
Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$665	75.9¢	Победа
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	$559	89.2¢	Победа
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$257	55.1¢	Победа
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?	Yes	$200	35.6¢	Победа
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?	Yes	$125	32.0¢	Победа
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?	No	$56	85.0¢	Победа
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	Yes	$4.4k	82.5¢	Победа
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$366	55.7¢	Победа
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$13	53.8¢	Победа
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?	No	$100	85.0¢	Победа
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	$100	57.0¢	Победа
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?	Yes	$100	43.0¢	Поражение
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$175	23.8¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	No	$100	76.0¢	Победа
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	Yes	$256	68.7¢	Победа
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$1.9k	77.0¢	Победа
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?	No	$50	25.0¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$45	68.4¢	Победа
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$250	56.2¢	Победа
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$189	84.5¢	Победа
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$6	5.3¢	Поражение
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	No	$170	72.9¢	Победа
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?	No	$200	31.9¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$350	85.8¢	Победа
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	$144	61.6¢	Победа
Will Pope Leo XIV meet with Donald Trump in 2025?	Yes	$45	64.0¢	Поражение
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.9k	77.5¢	Победа

Will Orbán flip Magyar for Next Hungary PM by Jan 31?Победа
No$500 @ 86.7¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Поражение
Yes$50 @ 57.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Победа
Yes$3.2k @ 42.1¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Победа
Yes$1.8k @ 77.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Победа
Yes$355 @ 58.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Победа
No$50 @ 88.9¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Победа
No$109 @ 65.4¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Поражение
Yes$7.4k @ 36.9¢
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Победа
No$201 @ 86.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$298 @ 58.0¢
Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?Поражение
Yes$304 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Поражение
No$100 @ 82.0¢
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?Победа
No$150 @ 78.3¢
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 69.9¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Поражение
No$30 @ 61.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Победа
Yes$555 @ 79.4¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Поражение
Yes$1.2k @ 37.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?Победа
No$100 @ 66.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Победа
Yes$150 @ 69.0¢
Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?Победа
Yes$665 @ 75.9¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Победа
Yes$559 @ 89.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Победа
Yes$257 @ 55.1¢
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Победа
Yes$200 @ 35.6¢
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Победа
Yes$125 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?Победа
No$56 @ 85.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Победа
Yes$4.4k @ 82.5¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Победа
Yes$366 @ 55.7¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Победа
No$13 @ 53.8¢
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?Победа
No$100 @ 85.0¢
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Победа
No$100 @ 57.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 43.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Поражение
Yes$175 @ 23.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Победа
No$100 @ 76.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Победа
Yes$256 @ 68.7¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Победа
No$1.9k @ 77.0¢
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?Поражение
No$50 @ 25.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Победа
Yes$45 @ 68.4¢
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Победа
Yes$250 @ 56.2¢
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$189 @ 84.5¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 5.3¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Победа
No$170 @ 72.9¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Поражение
No$200 @ 31.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Победа
Yes$350 @ 85.8¢
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?Победа
Yes$144 @ 61.6¢
Will Pope Leo XIV meet with Donald Trump in 2025?Поражение
Yes$45 @ 64.0¢
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Победа
Yes$1.9k @ 77.5¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Политика	Yes	$2.2k	53.6¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	Политика	Yes	$219	25.4¢
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Политика	Yes	$30	43.0¢

Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Политика
Yes$2.2k @ 53.6¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?Политика
Yes$219 @ 25.4¢
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Политика
Yes$30 @ 43.0¢