0xe694…7e7c

Профи

Эдж

+2.9pp

ROI

+12%

Доля побед

31% @ 28.0¢

Brier

0.085

Сделок

1779

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	20% (27/134)	+26%	134
Политика	22% (19/86)	-8%	86
Экономика	40% (12/30)	+13%	30
Спорт	50% (3/6)	+26%	6
Геополитика	50% (3/6)	-39%	6
Технологии	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Other134 ставки
Попадания
20% (27/134)
ROI
+26%
Политика86 ставки
Попадания
22% (19/86)
ROI
-8%
Экономика30 ставки
Попадания
40% (12/30)
ROI
+13%
Спорт6 ставки
Попадания
50% (3/6)
ROI
+26%
Геополитика6 ставки
Попадания
50% (3/6)
ROI
-39%
Технологии4 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

24% попаданий · 64/266

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	No	$5	12.3¢	Поражение
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$4	75.0¢	Победа
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Поражение
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	$7	4.3¢	Поражение
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$4	14.6¢	Поражение
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$408	48.4¢	Победа
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Победа
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$4	76.5¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$12	15.9¢	Поражение
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$0	8.8¢	Поражение
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Поражение
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$24	3.1¢	Поражение
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$1	5.5¢	Поражение
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Поражение
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Поражение
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$4	1.2¢	Поражение
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$0	2.1¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$1	2.7¢	Поражение
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$49	72.2¢	Победа
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?	Yes	$0	5.7¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$12	2.8¢	Поражение
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$1	10.0¢	Победа
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$4	87.7¢	Победа
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Поражение
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Победа
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$1	3.7¢	Поражение
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$13	87.7¢	Победа
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$154	59.4¢	Поражение
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$121	38.0¢	Победа
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	$15	38.5¢	Поражение
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$14	67.0¢	Победа
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2	4.4¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Поражение
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	6.4¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3	0.7¢	Поражение
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Поражение
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Поражение
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?	Yes	$1	5.7¢	Поражение
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?	Yes	$21	7.7¢	Поражение
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$4	80.0¢	Победа
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$1	7.2¢	Поражение
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Поражение
Will France come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$1	5.1¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$13	7.6¢	Поражение

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Поражение
No$5 @ 12.3¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Победа
No$4 @ 75.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Поражение
No$7 @ 4.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 14.6¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Победа
Yes$408 @ 48.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Победа
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Победа
No$4 @ 76.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 15.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 8.8¢
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$24 @ 3.1¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Победа
Yes$49 @ 72.2¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 5.7¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 2.8¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Победа
No$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Победа
No$4 @ 87.7¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Победа
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Поражение
No$1 @ 3.7¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Победа
Yes$13 @ 87.7¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Поражение
No$154 @ 59.4¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Победа
Yes$121 @ 38.0¢
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Поражение
No$15 @ 38.5¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Победа
Yes$14 @ 67.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 4.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 6.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Победа
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 0.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?Поражение
Yes$21 @ 7.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Победа
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 7.2¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will France come in last place at Eurovision 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Поражение
No$1 @ 5.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Поражение
No$13 @ 7.6¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Политика	No	$2.0k	50.0¢
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$2.0k	50.0¢
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	No	$202	95.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Экономика	No	$66	83.9¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Экономика	No	$64	83.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$60	46.1¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Экономика	No	$39	69.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$38	17.3¢
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Политика	Yes	$32	70.8¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$27	12.7¢
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$24	8.8¢
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$23	10.0¢
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	No	$21	98.7¢
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Политика	No	$17	68.1¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$16	91.0¢
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Политика	Yes	$14	23.7¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	No	$12	80.1¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	Yes	$12	40.1¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Экономика	No	$11	77.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$11	5.9¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$11	9.3¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Экономика	Yes	$11	13.0¢
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	Yes	$10	0.3¢
Will Unity win less than 0.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	—	Yes	$9	94.2¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$8	79.8¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Экономика	Yes	$8	9.3¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Экономика	Yes	$7	13.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$6	8.4¢
0xc7cbc47d…	—	No	$5	86.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$5	2.5¢

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Политика
No$2.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$2.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
No$202 @ 95.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Экономика
No$66 @ 83.9¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Экономика
No$64 @ 83.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$60 @ 46.1¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Экономика
No$39 @ 69.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$38 @ 17.3¢
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Политика
Yes$32 @ 70.8¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$27 @ 12.7¢
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$24 @ 8.8¢
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$23 @ 10.0¢
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
No$21 @ 98.7¢
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Политика
No$17 @ 68.1¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$16 @ 91.0¢
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?Политика
Yes$14 @ 23.7¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
No$12 @ 80.1¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
Yes$12 @ 40.1¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Экономика
No$11 @ 77.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$11 @ 5.9¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$11 @ 9.3¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Экономика
Yes$11 @ 13.0¢
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
Yes$10 @ 0.3¢
Will Unity win less than 0.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?—
Yes$9 @ 94.2¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Политика
Yes$8 @ 79.8¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Экономика
Yes$8 @ 9.3¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Экономика
Yes$7 @ 13.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$6 @ 8.4¢
0xc7cbc47d…—
No$5 @ 86.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢