0xe3f2…e1c1

Прибыльный

Эдж

+4.3pp

ROI

+4%

Доля побед

32% @ 27.9¢

Brier

0.137

Сделок

1386

Ср. размер

$100

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	48% (21/44)	+92%	44
Политика	30% (7/23)	-29%	23
Спорт	0% (0/5)	-100%	5

Other44 ставки
Попадания
48% (21/44)
ROI
+92%
Политика23 ставки
Попадания
30% (7/23)
ROI
-29%
Спорт5 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

39% попаданий · 28/72

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?	No	$105	69.0¢	Победа
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.5k	14.6¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$676	10.0¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$4.6k	76.0¢	Победа
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?	Over	$350	70.0¢	Победа
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?	Under	$16	40.0¢	Поражение
Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?	Yes	$2	26.0¢	Победа
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$28	51.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$2.8k	57.0¢	Поражение
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$7	21.0¢	Поражение
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$1.1k	63.2¢	Победа
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	$95	86.0¢	Поражение
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	$1.7k	15.9¢	Победа
Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	$173	13.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$1.6k	82.1¢	Поражение
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$10	25.0¢	Поражение
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$960	16.0¢	Поражение
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$34	31.0¢	Поражение
Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?	No	$36	71.0¢	Победа
Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$550	27.7¢	Поражение
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?	Yes	$1.1k	11.4¢	Поражение
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$699	6.5¢	Поражение
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$4.0k	35.1¢	Поражение
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$280	40.0¢	Победа
Will CDU win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$148	49.0¢	Победа
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$3.6k	28.7¢	Победа
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	$640	8.0¢	Поражение
Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$1.8k	46.2¢	Победа
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	Côte dIvoire	$376	4.4¢	Поражение
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	$318	12.7¢	Поражение
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$5.0k	22.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$309	29.1¢	Поражение
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$6.1k	28.5¢	Поражение
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$2.2k	58.0¢	Победа
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$13.4k	24.3¢	Поражение
Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$244	20.0¢	Поражение
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$1.1k	44.3¢	Победа
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	Côte dIvoire	$84	1.1¢	Поражение
Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	No	$826	69.1¢	Победа
Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$1.1k	38.2¢	Поражение
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$2.6k	14.9¢	Поражение
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$549	5.7¢	Поражение
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	No	$15	77.0¢	Поражение
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$1.9k	32.5¢	Победа
Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?	No	$33	73.6¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	$2.8k	28.0¢	Поражение
Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$152	38.0¢	Победа
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$1.2k	35.3¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$19.3k	70.2¢	Победа
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$8.2k	49.0¢	Поражение

Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?Победа
No$105 @ 69.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$1.5k @ 14.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Поражение
Yes$676 @ 10.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Победа
No$4.6k @ 76.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?Победа
Over$350 @ 70.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?Поражение
Under$16 @ 40.0¢
Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?Победа
Yes$2 @ 26.0¢
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Победа
Yes$28 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$2.8k @ 57.0¢
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Поражение
No$7 @ 21.0¢
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Победа
Yes$1.1k @ 63.2¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Поражение
Over$95 @ 86.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Победа
Under$1.7k @ 15.9¢
Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Поражение
Yes$173 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Поражение
No$1.6k @ 82.1¢
Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?Поражение
Yes$960 @ 16.0¢
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Поражение
No$34 @ 31.0¢
Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?Победа
No$36 @ 71.0¢
Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?Поражение
Yes$550 @ 27.7¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?Поражение
Yes$1.1k @ 11.4¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Поражение
Yes$699 @ 6.5¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Поражение
Yes$4.0k @ 35.1¢
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Победа
Yes$280 @ 40.0¢
Will CDU win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?Победа
Yes$148 @ 49.0¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Победа
Yes$3.6k @ 28.7¢
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Поражение
Yes$640 @ 8.0¢
Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?Победа
Yes$1.8k @ 46.2¢
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)Поражение
Côte dIvoire$376 @ 4.4¢
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?Поражение
Yes$318 @ 12.7¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Поражение
No$5.0k @ 22.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$309 @ 29.1¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Поражение
Yes$6.1k @ 28.5¢
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Победа
No$2.2k @ 58.0¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Поражение
Yes$13.4k @ 24.3¢
Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?Поражение
Yes$244 @ 20.0¢
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?Победа
Yes$1.1k @ 44.3¢
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)Поражение
Côte dIvoire$84 @ 1.1¢
Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?Победа
No$826 @ 69.1¢
Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?Поражение
Yes$1.1k @ 38.2¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Поражение
Yes$2.6k @ 14.9¢
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Поражение
Yes$549 @ 5.7¢
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?Поражение
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?Победа
Yes$1.9k @ 32.5¢
Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?Победа
No$33 @ 73.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Поражение
No$2.8k @ 28.0¢
Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?Победа
Yes$152 @ 38.0¢
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?Поражение
Yes$1.2k @ 35.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Победа
No$19.3k @ 70.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$8.2k @ 49.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$12.6k	47.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Политика	Yes	$4.8k	43.9¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$3.1k	28.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$2.1k	26.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Политика	Yes	$2.1k	1.8¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Политика	No	$2.1k	14.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	—	Under	$1.7k	15.9¢
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$902	30.3¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Культура	Yes	$777	25.1¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$399	5.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Политика	Yes	$303	14.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$241	30.1¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$222	54.4¢
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$210	21.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$130	15.0¢
Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	—	Yes	$86	14.7¢
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Политика	No	$39	65.0¢
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?	Политика	No	$23	77.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$20	14.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Политика	No	$15	14.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$15	29.0¢
Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?	Политика	Yes	$14	28.0¢
Will Grüne be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Политика	Yes	$7	33.0¢
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?	Геополитика	No	$3	4.0¢
Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?	Геополитика	No	$3	4.0¢

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$12.6k @ 47.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Политика
Yes$4.8k @ 43.9¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Политика
Yes$3.1k @ 28.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$2.1k @ 26.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseПолитика
Yes$2.1k @ 1.8¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Политика
No$2.1k @ 14.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?—
Under$1.7k @ 15.9¢
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$902 @ 30.3¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Культура
Yes$777 @ 25.1¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Политика
Yes$399 @ 5.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Политика
Yes$303 @ 14.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Политика
Yes$241 @ 30.1¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$222 @ 54.4¢
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?Политика
Yes$210 @ 21.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$130 @ 15.0¢
Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?—
Yes$86 @ 14.7¢
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Политика
No$39 @ 65.0¢
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?Политика
No$23 @ 77.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Политика
Yes$20 @ 14.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Политика
No$15 @ 14.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?Политика
Yes$14 @ 28.0¢
Will Grüne be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?Политика
Yes$7 @ 33.0¢
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?Геополитика
No$3 @ 4.0¢
Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?Геополитика
No$3 @ 4.0¢