0xe0dc…3944

Профи

Эдж

+13.3pp

ROI

+10%

Доля побед

76% @ 63.1¢

Brier

0.139

Сделок

102

Ср. размер

$60

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	74% (29/39)	-13%	39
Политика	55% (11/20)	-18%	20
Геополитика	60% (3/5)	+30%	5
Технологии	100% (3/3)	+24%	3
Бизнес	100% (1/1)	+16%	1

Other39 ставки
Попадания
74% (29/39)
ROI
-13%
Политика20 ставки
Попадания
55% (11/20)
ROI
-18%
Геополитика5 ставки
Попадания
60% (3/5)
ROI
+30%
Технологии3 ставки
Попадания
100% (3/3)
ROI
+24%
Бизнес1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+16%

История результатов

69% попаданий · 47/68

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June?	No	$48	80.0¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Antifa" in June?	No	$4	50.0¢	Победа
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	No	$27	88.9¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$360	86.0¢	Победа
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?	Yes	$38	68.1¢	Победа
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?	No	$45	85.4¢	Победа
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$64	41.6¢	Победа
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?	Yes	$16	49.0¢	Победа
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$294	87.7¢	Победа
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$48	81.2¢	Победа
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$110	72.7¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$65	32.5¢	Поражение
Will Lime's market cap be less than $1.4B at market close on IPO day?	No	$21	88.2¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$87	87.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$611	79.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$52	52.0¢	Победа
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$19	63.5¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June?	No	$266	80.6¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May?	No	$312	88.6¢	Победа
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	$232	50.0¢	Победа
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in July 2026?	Yes	$166	84.5¢	Победа
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$53	37.6¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	$5	4.6¢	Поражение
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	0.3¢	Поражение
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?	No	$135	89.7¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$16	79.0¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$16	67.0¢	Победа
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	No	$1	13.0¢	Поражение
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$45	80.5¢	Поражение
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	$656	86.8¢	Победа
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$289	66.0¢	Победа
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$179	37.3¢	Поражение
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?	No	$7	80.0¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?	No	$48	40.0¢	Победа
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$632	83.0¢	Победа
SHEIN IPO before 2027?	Yes	$1.2k	86.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$16	16.0¢	Победа
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$11	11.0¢	Победа
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?	No	$8	88.9¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Flag" during events with Brazilian president?	No	$22	88.0¢	Победа
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	No	$9	13.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$308	33.9¢	Поражение
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$50	79.0¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?	No	$32	79.0¢	Поражение
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	$900	85.7¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$21	14.0¢	Победа
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	$42	64.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$13	77.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$239	59.8¢	Победа

Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June?Победа
No$48 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "Antifa" in June?Победа
No$4 @ 50.0¢
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?Победа
No$27 @ 88.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Победа
No$360 @ 86.0¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?Победа
Yes$38 @ 68.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Победа
No$45 @ 85.4¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Победа
No$64 @ 41.6¢
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?Победа
Yes$16 @ 49.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Победа
No$294 @ 87.7¢
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Победа
No$48 @ 81.2¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Победа
Yes$110 @ 72.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Поражение
Yes$65 @ 32.5¢
Will Lime's market cap be less than $1.4B at market close on IPO day?Победа
No$21 @ 88.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Победа
No$87 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Поражение
No$611 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Победа
Yes$52 @ 52.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Победа
No$19 @ 63.5¢
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June?Победа
No$266 @ 80.6¢
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May?Победа
No$312 @ 88.6¢
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?Победа
Yes$232 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in July 2026?Победа
Yes$166 @ 84.5¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Поражение
Yes$53 @ 37.6¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 4.6¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?Победа
No$135 @ 89.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$16 @ 67.0¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Поражение
Yes$45 @ 80.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Победа
No$656 @ 86.8¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$289 @ 66.0¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Поражение
Yes$179 @ 37.3¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?Победа
No$7 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?Победа
No$48 @ 40.0¢
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$632 @ 83.0¢
SHEIN IPO before 2027?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Победа
Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Победа
No$11 @ 11.0¢
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?Победа
No$8 @ 88.9¢
Will Trump say "Flag" during events with Brazilian president?Победа
No$22 @ 88.0¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Поражение
No$9 @ 13.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$308 @ 33.9¢
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Победа
Yes$50 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?Поражение
No$32 @ 79.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Победа
No$900 @ 85.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Победа
No$21 @ 14.0¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Поражение
No$42 @ 64.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Победа
No$239 @ 59.8¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?	Политика	No	$1.9k	88.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Бизнес	No	$1.8k	99.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Политика	No	$1.5k	83.9¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?	Политика	No	$1.1k	92.4¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	Политика	No	$684	96.7¢
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Технологии	No	$628	58.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Геополитика	No	$597	93.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	Политика	No	$418	74.5¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by September 30?	—	No	$390	98.1¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Экономика	No	$360	45.7¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?	Other	No	$343	94.0¢
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?	—	No	$300	75.3¢
Will Trump praise Nicki Minaj in September?	—	No	$283	75.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Технологии	No	$211	94.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Технологии	Yes	$210	60.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by September 30?	—	No	$203	98.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	—	Yes	$171	50.3¢
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$162	90.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?	Политика	No	$150	96.8¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $245B by September 30?	—	No	$141	96.9¢
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	Экономика	No	$139	82.8¢
Will Anthropic list on another exchange?	—	No	$117	96.9¢
Will Trump meet with Andy Burnham in September 2026?	—	Yes	$101	98.4¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Геополитика	No	$99	65.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?	Other	No	$96	97.5¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Экономика	Yes	$95	19.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$80	90.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by September 30?	—	No	$78	97.6¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	Политика	No	$68	39.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	—	No	$61	74.0¢

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Политика
No$1.9k @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Бизнес
No$1.8k @ 99.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Политика
No$1.5k @ 83.9¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?Политика
No$1.1k @ 92.4¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?Политика
No$684 @ 96.7¢
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?Технологии
No$628 @ 58.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Геополитика
No$597 @ 93.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Политика
No$418 @ 74.5¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by September 30?—
No$390 @ 98.1¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Экономика
No$360 @ 45.7¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?Other
No$343 @ 94.0¢
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?—
No$300 @ 75.3¢
Will Trump praise Nicki Minaj in September?—
No$283 @ 75.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Технологии
No$211 @ 94.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?Технологии
Yes$210 @ 60.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by September 30?—
No$203 @ 98.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?—
Yes$171 @ 50.3¢
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026? Политика
No$162 @ 90.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?Политика
No$150 @ 96.8¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $245B by September 30?—
No$141 @ 96.9¢
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?Экономика
No$139 @ 82.8¢
Will Anthropic list on another exchange?—
No$117 @ 96.9¢
Will Trump meet with Andy Burnham in September 2026?—
Yes$101 @ 98.4¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Геополитика
No$99 @ 65.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?Other
No$96 @ 97.5¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Экономика
Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$80 @ 90.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by September 30?—
No$78 @ 97.6¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Политика
No$68 @ 39.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?—
No$61 @ 74.0¢