0xd75a…fdec

Прибыльный

Эдж

+16.9pp

ROI

+19%

Доля побед

53% @ 36.5¢

Brier

0.259

Сделок

347

Ср. размер

$50

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	42% (21/50)	-10%	50
Other	50% (20/40)	+15%	40
Геополитика	64% (7/11)	-5%	11
Технологии	14% (1/7)	-47%	7
Спорт	50% (1/2)	-46%	2
Крипто	50% (1/2)	+353%	2

Политика50 ставки
Попадания
42% (21/50)
ROI
-10%
Other40 ставки
Попадания
50% (20/40)
ROI
+15%
Геополитика11 ставки
Попадания
64% (7/11)
ROI
-5%
Технологии7 ставки
Попадания
14% (1/7)
ROI
-47%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
-46%
Крипто2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+353%

История результатов

46% попаданий · 51/112

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$470	75.3¢	Победа
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$18	42.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	$42	23.0¢	Поражение
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$94	79.0¢	Победа
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	$122	59.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$168	62.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$181	73.8¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$294	35.0¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.1k	41.6¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$66	1.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Yes	$107	31.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$68	54.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$95	15.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$281	54.0¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$202	42.6¢	Поражение
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$784	78.8¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$88	19.0¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$146	71.0¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$43	56.8¢	Поражение
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	No	$96	50.0¢	Поражение
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$155	91.9¢	Победа
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$69	25.0¢	Поражение
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	Yes	$7	4.0¢	Поражение
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	42.0¢	Победа
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	No	$730	78.8¢	Победа
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	Yes	$7	46.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$123	69.3¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$111	33.6¢	Поражение
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?	Yes	$148	59.1¢	Победа
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	$111	90.0¢	Победа
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$271	30.8¢	Поражение
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$623	86.0¢	Победа
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$11	54.0¢	Поражение
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Поражение
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	$11	18.0¢	Поражение
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$256	98.7¢	Победа
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	14.1¢	Поражение
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$158	71.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	57.0¢	Поражение
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$145	92.5¢	Победа
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$3.8k	93.0¢	Победа
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$176	95.0¢	Победа
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$1.7k	34.5¢	Поражение
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$63	62.8¢	Победа
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$275	73.8¢	Победа
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$107	10.9¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	$77	39.0¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$10	13.0¢	Поражение
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$14	29.0¢	Поражение

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Победа
No$470 @ 75.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Поражение
Yes$18 @ 42.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Поражение
Yes$42 @ 23.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Победа
Yes$94 @ 79.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Победа
Yes$122 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Поражение
No$168 @ 62.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Победа
Yes$181 @ 73.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$294 @ 35.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$2.1k @ 41.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$66 @ 1.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$107 @ 31.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$68 @ 54.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Поражение
Yes$95 @ 15.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Победа
Yes$281 @ 54.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$202 @ 42.6¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Поражение
No$784 @ 78.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$88 @ 19.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Победа
Yes$146 @ 71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$43 @ 56.8¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Поражение
No$96 @ 50.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Победа
No$155 @ 91.9¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Поражение
No$69 @ 25.0¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 4.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$20 @ 42.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Победа
No$730 @ 78.8¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 46.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$123 @ 69.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$111 @ 33.6¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Победа
Yes$148 @ 59.1¢
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Победа
No$111 @ 90.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Поражение
Yes$271 @ 30.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Победа
No$623 @ 86.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 54.0¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 18.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$256 @ 98.7¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 14.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Победа
No$158 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 57.0¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Победа
No$145 @ 92.5¢
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Победа
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$3.8k @ 93.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Победа
No$176 @ 95.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$1.7k @ 34.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Победа
Yes$63 @ 62.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Победа
No$275 @ 73.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Поражение
Yes$107 @ 10.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Поражение
Yes$77 @ 39.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Поражение
No$10 @ 13.0¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 29.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$4.2k	74.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$1.2k	32.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$567	40.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Политика	No	$309	54.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Политика	Yes	$290	54.7¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$273	39.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Политика	No	$160	63.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$107	7.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Политика	Yes	$86	36.1¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$86	32.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Политика	No	$83	67.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$67	30.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$41	17.4¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Политика	Yes	$23	28.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$9	59.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$9	11.6¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$4.2k @ 74.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Политика
Yes$1.2k @ 32.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$567 @ 40.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Политика
No$309 @ 54.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Политика
Yes$290 @ 54.7¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$273 @ 39.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Политика
No$160 @ 63.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$107 @ 7.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Политика
Yes$86 @ 36.1¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Политика
Yes$86 @ 32.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Политика
No$83 @ 67.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Политика
Yes$67 @ 30.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Политика
Yes$41 @ 17.4¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Политика
Yes$23 @ 28.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Технологии
Yes$9 @ 59.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Политика
Yes$9 @ 11.6¢