0xd2de…099b

Профи

Эдж

+10.6pp

ROI

+20%

Доля побед

79% @ 68.2¢

Brier

0.142

Сделок

175

Ср. размер

$11

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	84% (51/61)	+30%	61
Политика	79% (41/52)	-1%	52
Геополитика	92% (11/12)	+11%	12
Спорт	86% (6/7)	+20%	7

Other61 ставки
Попадания
84% (51/61)
ROI
+30%
Политика52 ставки
Попадания
79% (41/52)
ROI
-1%
Геополитика12 ставки
Попадания
92% (11/12)
ROI
+11%
Спорт7 ставки
Попадания
86% (6/7)
ROI
+20%

История результатов

83% попаданий · 109/132

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	$5	75.0¢	Поражение
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$10	80.0¢	Победа
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$1	65.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$128	79.5¢	Победа
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$8	27.7¢	Поражение
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$278	67.7¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$10	79.5¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	65.9¢	Победа
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	$1	82.0¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$14	73.5¢	Победа
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$33	82.7¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$4	62.0¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	No	$3	0.3¢	Поражение
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$93	62.5¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$50	67.6¢	Победа
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Поражение
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Поражение
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$18	68.6¢	Победа
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$46	21.5¢	Победа
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$16	90.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$19	78.3¢	Победа
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$8	60.8¢	Победа
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$25	87.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$35	80.4¢	Победа
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$10	62.0¢	Победа
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$43	49.1¢	Поражение
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	No	$5	87.0¢	Победа
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	$33	78.0¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	$25	77.0¢	Победа
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$21	77.7¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$3	63.0¢	Победа
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$5	81.8¢	Победа
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$4	49.9¢	Поражение
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	No	$5	89.0¢	Победа
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	$7	89.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$72	60.5¢	Поражение
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	$10	74.0¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	79.0¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$5	81.3¢	Победа
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Победа
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	$2	66.0¢	Победа
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	$5	75.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$10	84.0¢	Победа
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$10	95.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$20	82.0¢	Победа
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	10.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	No	$28	93.0¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	$30	93.0¢	Победа
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$20	91.0¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$50	91.0¢	Победа

Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Победа
No$10 @ 80.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Победа
No$1 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$128 @ 79.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 27.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Победа
Yes$278 @ 67.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$10 @ 79.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$35 @ 65.9¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Победа
No$1 @ 82.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Победа
No$14 @ 73.5¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Победа
No$33 @ 82.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 62.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Поражение
No$3 @ 0.3¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Победа
Yes$93 @ 62.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Победа
No$50 @ 67.6¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Победа
No$18 @ 68.6¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Победа
Yes$46 @ 21.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Победа
No$16 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Победа
No$19 @ 78.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$8 @ 60.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Победа
No$25 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Победа
No$35 @ 80.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Победа
No$10 @ 62.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Поражение
No$43 @ 49.1¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$5 @ 87.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Победа
No$33 @ 78.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Победа
No$25 @ 77.0¢
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Победа
Yes$21 @ 77.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$3 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Победа
No$5 @ 81.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Поражение
No$4 @ 49.9¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Победа
No$5 @ 89.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Победа
No$7 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Поражение
No$72 @ 60.5¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Поражение
No$10 @ 74.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$1 @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Победа
No$5 @ 81.3¢
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Победа
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Победа
No$2 @ 66.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Победа
No$10 @ 84.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Победа
No$20 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Поражение
No$1 @ 10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Победа
No$28 @ 93.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Победа
No$30 @ 93.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Победа
No$20 @ 91.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Победа
No$50 @ 91.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$252	80.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$59	84.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$35	87.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$31	91.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	—	No	$30	82.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$21	78.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	—	No	$17	89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$16	78.1¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	—	No	$15	90.5¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$12	2.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$11	93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	—	No	$11	91.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$10	88.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$10	62.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Политика	No	$10	43.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$5	91.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September?	—	No	$5	67.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Политика	No	$3	91.2¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	Политика	Yes	$1	81.0¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
No$252 @ 80.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$59 @ 84.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$35 @ 87.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$31 @ 91.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?—
No$30 @ 82.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$21 @ 78.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?—
No$17 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$16 @ 78.1¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?—
No$15 @ 90.5¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Политика
Yes$12 @ 2.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?—
No$11 @ 93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?—
No$11 @ 91.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$10 @ 88.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
No$10 @ 62.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Политика
No$10 @ 43.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?—
No$5 @ 91.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September?—
No$5 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Политика
No$3 @ 91.2¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Политика
Yes$1 @ 81.0¢